New Delhi: The long term dispute over Teesta river waters between India and Bangladesh may result in the incitement of anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh by groups working against India. The two countries have been unable to agree on a fair amount of water sharing for their people. The river, which flows 151 km in Sikkim, 142 km along the Sikkim-West Bengal border and in Bengal, and 121 km in Bangladesh, is a vital source of income for many fishermen and farmers in both countries.
The Teesta river basin is densely populated—71% in North Bangladesh and 27% in North Bengal. More than 21 million people in Bangladesh are directly or indirectly dependent on Teesta. As per the Asian Foundation in 2013, around 14% of the total cropped areas are in the floodplains of Bangladesh. A political observer on India-Bangladesh, Tapas Das, told The Sunday Guardian, “If the Teesta conflict is not resolved quickly, anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh may be incited, as floods displace a large number of people every year. The Joint River Commission (JRC) did not have any meetings after 2011.
Weste Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee also stated that the two countries share 54 rivers, so instead of relying solely on the Teesta, they might share other rivers as well. Bangladesh, on the other hand, has refused to comply and is concentrating on the Rangpur and Rajshahi divisions due to severe drought and flooding.” The JRC was established after the formation of Bangladesh in 1971 with the aim of working together to bring a solution to the water issue between both nations.
The conflict began when West Bengal began building a barrage and catchment area on the Teesta River, which Bangladesh objected to because Bangladesh’s Rangpur division was entirely reliant on the river for its livelihood. In response, India entered into negotiations in 1983, and an ad hoc agreement on Teesta was reached, with India receiving 39%, Bangladesh receiving 36%, and the remaining 25% unallocated. Bangladesh, however, rejected the agreement. Several Teesta treaties had stayed unsigned till then due to objections from either of the nations.
In 2011, the JRC was entrusted with gathering hydrological data and proposing a sensible water-sharing system. After gathering the data, the commission recommended increasing Bangladesh’s share because the barrage built by West Bengal was much closer to the Bangladesh border, and some water would have flowed underground, benefiting both countries. As a result, Bangladesh’s share increased to 37.5%, India received 42.5%, and the remaining 20% was left unallocated. The deal, however, has yet to be signed since West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee opposed it. She specified that the barrage aimed to irrigate 922,000 hectares of land in North Bengal and provide 67.60 megawatts of hydropower. So, any water sharing would hamper the project. Banerjee also suggested that West Bengal and Bangladesh share other rivers such as Torsa, and that the two countries should form a commission to determine the amount of water flowing through Torsa and how it should be shared.
In a study published in the Ecologist Asia in 2003, hydrologist Kalyan Rudra was critical of large projects on the river, such as the Teesta Barrage Project in Jalpaiguri district and hydroelectric projects of the National Hydro Power Corporation (stages III and IV) in West Bengal’s Darjeeling district. The report backs a proposal to minimise the load on the Teesta by reducing the number of multi-purpose hydro projects on the river.
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014, he vowed that India would work to tackle the issue. Several rounds of talks between India and Bangladesh have taken place, but West Bengal’s Chief Minister, who is a major stakeholder, is yet to sign the agreement. Although, under Article 235, the Union government can engage in any transboundary river water treaty with a riparian state without consulting the state government, this can be fatal to centre-state relationship.
To address the water crisis, Bangladesh has opened the prospect of obtaining a $1 billion loan from China in 2020 for the restoration and maintenance of a Teesta project. This project, in the Rangpur division, intends to adequately manage the river basin, reduce floods, and address the water shortage. This project poses a significant threat to India because it will bring China closer to Bangladesh, and such relations could be a major setback for India.
Looking into the political perspective, Das told this correspondent, “Even if the Teesta dispute is resolved, implementation will be challenging. If the Teesta conflict is not settled before the next election in Bangladesh, the diplomatic relationship between Bangladesh and India may suffer serious damage. If the Awami League wins next year, other treaties, including the Ganga Water Treaty, will expire, posing a big challenge in negotiating new agreements, while the Teesta dispute remains unresolved.”