PM’s ‘UCC gambit’ may upset Congress POLL plan in stateS

The Uniform Civil Code (UCC) ball lobbed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has Congress in a bind. With the Modi government likely to introduce a bill on implementing the UCC during the upcoming monsoon session of Parliament, the unity of Opposition will be put to test.
The issue of UCC has already created a rift in the opposition camp, with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) announcing its support. Similarly, Uddahv Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) has also announced that it will back UCC. It is a big blow to Nitish Kumar’s efforts to unite the Opposition. What worries Congress is that the other parties in the Opposition will definitely oppose it. The Congress will, therefore, be in a dilemma over the issue of UCC. The issue is likely to cast its shadow over the meeting of the Opposition proposed to be held on 12 July in Shimla. So the picture is clear. The UCC issue is going to add to Congress’ challenges in the upcoming Assembly elections.
The Congress, which was on the right path till the Karnataka polls, seems to be changing track suddenly. Shifting its focus once again on the next year’s Lok Sabha elections, the grand old party is busy expanding its alliance with “like-minded” parties in Opposition. It was the same parties that damaged Congress’ images in the past. Congress strategists know that relying on smaller regional parties for power cost the party dearly, whether it was the Narasimha Rao government in 1994 or the Manmohan Singh government (2004-2014). Congress had to face the negative fallout of the cases like fodder scam involving Lalu Yadav, JMM bribery case, 2G and Coalgate scams. All these scams brought the Congress a tag of “the most corrupt party” in the period after the independence. As a result, Congress lost two Lok Sabha polls in a row. The grand old party could not even get 55 seats required for entitlement for the leader of opposition post. Number of states under its rule also dwindled. Significantly, its alliance partners that were allegedly involved in scams did not suffer that much loss. Some of the tainted parties of the UPA alliance, such as DMK and RJD are in power today. These two parties do not also give much importance to Congress. The TMC, which enjoyed power with UPA till 2009, is ruling Bengal where Congress is almost finished. The political parties like BSP, SP and NCP wield influence in their respective regions, reducing Congress to a negligible position. AAP, which also dented Congress’ position considerably, has set its foot in Delhi and Punjab at the cost of the grand old party. There is no denying that the ball of Opposition unity is in the court of Congress. So far, former Congress president Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra are focused on strengthening the party organisation in poll-bound states. The Congress may benefit from their efforts. The party should distance itself from the outfits including AAP whose leaders are either tainted in corruption cases or involved in politics of appeasement. Such parties include SP, BSP, PDP, NC, RJD, DMK and NCP. Presence of Rahul Gandhi and Congress president Mallikarjuna Kharge in the meeting organized by Bihar CM Nitish Kumar in Patna has harmed the Congress. The meeting was also attended by several leaders like Arvind Kejriwal who have decimated Congress in various states. The parties such as BSP, SP, TMC, NCP, NC, PDP, RJD, JDU and AAP emerged stronger only after Congress lost its ground. Uddahv Thackeray’s party is a new entrant. Congress has given these outfits the much-needed strength by sharing the stage with their leaders. The strategy of these leaders is to save their parties in alliance with Congress.
They know that if BJP returns in 2024, then several regional parties will be facing existential crises. AAP, SP, BSP, JDU, NCP, Thackeray’s SS, NC and PDP are some of the outfits which will then be on the verge of being wiped out. Therefore, Nitish Kumar is working hard to unite the Opposition to stop Narendra Modi’s victory spree. Nitish Kumar is also relying on RJD with this agenda in mind. He is also hopeful, at the same time, that a coalition government may be there at the centre like what happened in the 1990s. Nitish Kumar is considering himself as a prime ministerial candidate should a situation like this arise. Congress seems to be trusting Nitish Kumar so far. If the meeting in Shimla happens, the picture would be much clearer.
Meanwhile, PM Modi has set the electoral agenda for the 2024 parliamentary polls through the UCC card. AAP and Uddhav’s party have extended support in a bid to distance themselves from the tag of appeasement politics. Parties like TMC, SP, BSP, DMK and NCP will oppose it, as appeasement politics suits them. Congress is, therefore, in a catch-22 over the same. However, the Congress’ future hinges on state poll results by year end.
If Congress wins in Assembly elections in November, then it will be in a position to give a tough fight to BJP in the LS polls next year. Therefore, the Congress should avoid getting involved in the Opposition’s politics. It should focus more on Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh which will go to polls in November.