The Aam Aadmi Party’s leadership is yet to come to terms with the outcome of its dismal showing in Punjab and is still in the process of determining what went askew in its campaign. However, Arvind Kejriwal and his close supporters are self-assured that the Assembly election results would have no bearing on the Delhi municipal elections slated for next month and the AAP nominees would be in a powerful position to overcome their rivals. “When the results of the Haryana Assembly elections did not impact the Delhi Assembly elections in 2015, why would Congress’ Punjab win have any electoral consequences in the capital?” an AAP supporter observed.
There is no denying that AAP had relied heavily on winning Punjab as this could have been a facilitator in making the party into a major national player. In addition, a victory would have boosted its status, as AAP would have been the only regional party to be in power in both states. Since that did not happen, AAP volunteers and leaders have declined to abide by the results, which they believe were against the popular mood during the course of the campaign. Thus, its leadership has made allegations of EVM tampering and in the process shown the party as bad losers.
What AAP leaders need to understand is that they squandered their advantage in Punjab on account of several reasons, the primary being the lack of clarity so far as projection of a Chief Ministerial nominee was concerned. In the election, which turned out to be a contest between Amarinder Singh emerging as the sole challenger to the Akali Dal and Badal domination of politics, AAP failed to comprehend that it would have been imperative for them to declare the name of its leader since the contest was personality oriented.
It is evident that Amarinder Singh took a leaf out of Kejriwal’s book by going to Lambi to take on Parkash Singh Badal in his stronghold. In a way, the Captain replicated what Kejriwal did by putting himself against the sitting Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit from New Delhi in 2013, thereby changing public perception. Amarinder lost to Badal, unlike what happened in Delhi in 2013, where Kejriwal trounced Dikshit by more than 26,500 votes and in the process made her lose her deposit. However, the message which went out in the state, which was facing ten years of strong anti incumbency against the Badals, was that it was only Amarinder who could provide effective governance.
The absence of coherent thinking regarding the issue of leadership in Punjab was obvious from the fact that after virtually deciding to himself go there as the possible CM candidate in July-August, Kejriwal had second thoughts and so dilly dallied on the subject. Kejriwal’s reluctance and diffidence at the eleventh hour perhaps stemmed from the fact that Amarinder reshaped the campaign into that of Punjabi pride and scoffed how was it possible for Punjab to have a non-Punjabi Chief Minister, who hailed from adjoining Haryana, thereby stirring public sentiments.
The AAP, on its part, messed up on its initial advantage, which could have driven it to a podium finish in the end, given that it was receiving unexpected and overwhelming support from the people. To start with, the Sucha Singh Chhotepur sting operation took place, which ended in his parting ways with the organisation. Secondly, there was the manifesto controversy, which saw Ashish Khetan righteously defending his party, without realising that he was also trampling on certain sensitivities that are specific to Punjab politics. Thirdly, Bhagwant Singh Mann, who played a prominent role in the campaign, could not adhere to the unwritten code of conduct, which would have meant that his public demeanour should not have invited any kind of criticism.
An important factor which AAP supporters may find it difficult to concur with pertains to Navjot Singh Sidhu, who had knocked at Kejriwal’s door while he was planning to sever links with the Bharatiya Janata Party. In actuality, Sidhu’s influence may be confined to some areas of Amritsar, but in public perception he would have been a very impressive catch for AAP, thus ending up as both support as well as perception multiplier.
Sidhu’s induction would have helped AAP to overcome the leadership projection issue, as being a Jat Sikh from a prominent family, he would have robustly countered the negative propaganda regarding AAP’s intentions and its attempts to foist a non Jat leadership, something which both Mann and Chhotepur would have never been able to achieve. The sore point in AAP circles is why its candidates did not get the vote share which should have gone to the party.
It was difficult to digest the results when they were declared because most exit polls as well as opinion polls had showed them in the driver’s seat. It is evident that the party lost the race after attaining pole position.
The Punjab debacle and its dismal showing in Goa, have, fortunately for them, not dampened the spirits of AAP workers who are striving and slogging relentlessly for their party’s victory in the Delhi municipal polls. In the national capital, where AAP is in power and where there exists a strong resentment against the BJP, which administered the three municipal corporations, Kejriwal’s supporters are confident that their party would wrest control of the civic bodies. Attempts by Congress to rope in Captain Amarinder Singh for its campaign may not bear fruit, since the party is in a poor shape having lost the last two polls by record margins. Delhi has a large number of Punjabis, but they have little in common with the Punjabis of Punjab, since their families originally hailed from what is now the Punjab province of Pakistan.
India’s Punjab is dominated by Jat Sikhs and others who have strong roots to the state, while Delhi’s Punjabis are mostly “Bhapas”, as the erstwhile refugees were described. The BJP, which had an overbearing presence amongst the Punjabis of Delhi, has, since the last several years, ignored them after the golden era of Vijay Kumar Malhotra, Madan Lal Khurana and the late Keder Nath Sahani ended. The saffron challenge is led by Manoj Tiwari, who is originally from Poorvanchal, and many in his own party view his appointment to be the repetition of the miscalculation made while announcing Kiran Bedi in 2015 as the Chief Ministerial nominee for Delhi.
The Delhi municipal polls and before that the Assembly byelection from Rajouri Garden could provide a lifeline to AAP, which certainly needs it, subsequently, to revive its chances in other states. AAP has lost the Punjab battle, but is eventually in no doubt of winning the war.