The results of the Chandigarh municipal elections were described by the Bharatiya Janata Party Lok Sabha MP Kirron Kher as an endorsement of the Central government’s demonetisation decision. Nothing could be further from the truth. The BJP won the polls simply because the Congress was a divided house and its campaign was managed by people who are considered tainted by the electorate. The outcome is certainly not a precursor to the Punjab Assembly polls, where the grand old party spearheaded by Captain Amarinder Singh has a fighting chance to bounce back and recapture power, though the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) continues to offer a formidable challenge to the two principal contenders—the Congress and the Akalis.
It is also politically incorrect to interpret the Punjab scenario from the prism of the Chandigarh civic body elections. The BJP is the major partner in Chandigarh, whereas the Akalis play second fiddle, while it is the other way around so far as Punjab is concerned. It is purely another matter that both in 2007 and 2012, the Akalis formed the government primarily because the BJP fared well in the 23 Hindu dominated seats and therefore helping it to reach the majority figure. The BJP has not gained in strength and its dominance in those 23 seats has gradually diminished making the alliance rather vulnerable.
Secondly, the effort by the Congress in Chandigarh was marshalled by Pawan Bansal, who as Railways Minister was in the eye of a political storm and consequently had to quit in a huff. The 2014 elections had demonstrated that Bansal is certainly not amongst the most popular persons in the city and entrusting him with the polls was evidently a mistake of mammoth proportion. Thirdly, it has been observed that the BJP is able to fare better than the Congress wherever the two parties are pitted against each other. The byelections in various states are a testimony to this fact. However, in places where the saffron brigade has to face a regional outfit, it finds it extremely difficult to hold its ground. In a way, Chandigarh was an easy sweep and it would be absolutely naive to see it as an endorsement for the demonetisation drive, given that the common people face an equal amount of inconvenience as people elsewhere due to the overall poor implementation of the decision.
The Gandhis, who head the Congress, too have developed several blind spots and acknowledging their rejection by the people in contests against the BJP is one of them. Unless a mirror is held before them, it is unlikely that they would ever realise that at present they are a major liability for their own party and any amount of sycophancy by rootless leaders who surround them cannot change the situation. In this context, it is in their own interest that regional leaders are allowed to have a free hand so that the party is able to overcome its worst phase in history.
In Punjab, for instance, the Gandhis continue to operate as if they were still in power. For over a month, the entire top leadership of the state has been virtually camping in the national capital, waiting for the high command to clear the tickets of aspirants. There is no dearth of Punjab number plate cars that can be spotted in hotels and areas around 24, Akbar Road, the party’s headquarters. It may be providing a high to leaders entrusted with Punjab poll-work, but it poorly reflects on the high command which needs to understand that long term absence of top functionaries from the state battlefield has created a vacuum, which is assisting the Akalis to revive their chances and the AAP to bolster its prospects.
The Congress had lost the last two times essentially because several leaders based in Delhi had prevailed on the leadership to give tickets to their nominees, even if they had no hope whatsoever to win from anywhere. There were 39 such tickets that were distributed and barring one or two, all went down the drain, presenting the state government on a platter to the Akali-BJP combine. The same could happen again if the high command refuses to see the actuality and agrees to oblige its close associates, rather than looking at the electoral arena from the winnability angle.
If there is any hope for the Congress, it is only in Punjab and this is primarily because of Captain Amarinder Singh. The contest is not between the Congress and others, but between Amarinder Singh and the rest. It is, therefore, in the overall interest of the high command that it should allow the political discourse to be on these lines. The former Maharaja of Patiala is the only one who can pull it off for the party and as a consequence there is little point in denying him a free hand. However, care has to be taken that the Hindu seats are not given to Jat Sikhs, as they were in the past, and if the party is able to do so it certainly would be placed better to take on its adversaries.
The Akalis cannot be written off either, as in Sukhbir Badal they have a relentless campaigner. The AAP is eyeing the state as its best battlefield after Delhi. Nevertheless, it is solely Captain Amarinder Singh who can trounce impediments and bring jubilation for his party. Between us.