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Could America and the world survive Trump 2.0?

Editor's ChoiceCould America and the world survive Trump 2.0?

LONDON: I am not a fascist”, insisted Donald Trump at a rally at Madison Square Garden last Sunday. Surrounded by his supporters he was responding to Vice President Kamala Harris’s claim that as a fascist, Trump wants “unchecked power and a military loyal to him.” This followed allegations by several members of his former staff that Trump repeatedly voiced admiration for Hitler when in the White House. Harris pounced on the charge after The Atlantic reported that in an interview with Fox News on 13 October, Trump called his opponents “the enemy within”—Americans he described as “radical left lunatics.” According to Trump, these adversaries are “far more dangerous than Russia or China” but could be “very easily handled by the National Guard or the US military”. This wasn’t the first time that Trump has suggested the use of America’s armed forces as his personal guard. He regularly fantasised about commanding “his generals” to crush dissent, according to former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, in a conversation with the distinguished investigative journalist, Bob Woodward. Trump is “fascist to the core”, Milley reportedly said.
Retired Marine General John Kelly, Trump’s chief of staff from 2017 to 2019, agrees with Milley, telling the New York Times that Trump actually did fit the definition of a fascist. “He commented more than once that ‘Hitler did some good things too’,” said Kelly. In his opinion, “Trump would rule as a dictator if elected again”. Last week, no less than 13 former Trump administration officials released an open letter amplifying Kelly’s warnings. “This is who Donald Trump is,” the life-long Republicans wrote; “his disdain for the American military and admiration for dictators like Hitler is rooted in his desire for absolute, unchecked power.” These signatories were not just a group of junior officials, they worked at the highest level in the Trump administration and knew him well. Among them were: Anthony Scaramucci, who had a memorable 10-day run as communications director in the White House; Brooke Vosburgh Alexander, who was a top aide in the Commerce Department; Alyssa Fatah, press secretary to Vice President Mark Pence; Mark Harvey and Peter Jennison from the National Security Council; and three senior officials from the Homeland Security Department. “For the good of our country, our democracy, and our Constitution, we are asking you to listen carefully to General Kelly’s warning”, they entreated.

The former President and those around him rejected the criticism as little more than sour grapes. Trump called General Milley a “loser” and worse, suggesting that the decorated military officer should be executed for treason. But Milley and Kelly are not alone. According to the New York Times, many former generals, admirals, diplomats, intelligence officers and security strategists have publicly or privately accused Trump of being a liar who lacks basic knowledge about the world and represents a danger to democracy. His own Vice President, Mike Pence, has accused him of being reckless and putting himself above the Constitution.

Concerns about a possible Trump 2.0 are not just confined to the US. For some months, European leaders have been steeling themselves for the very real possibility of a Trump victory and the instability that would inject into world politics. Trump’s brand of “America First” politics has already sewn instability among partners and adversaries. Meanwhile, diplomats from around the world continue to sit down with Trump and foreign policy thinkers rumoured to be tapped for his team, including with the authors of policy briefs from conservative think tanks such as the Heritage Foundation or the Trump America First Policy Institute. Nevertheless, “the Washington professional foreign policy establishment look at the possibility of Trump’s return with great alarm”, said Andrew Weiss, former director for Russian, Ukrainian and Eurasian Affairs on the National Security Council staff. “People know how chaotic his time was in office. They saw various foreign leaders wrap then President Trump around their finger. They saw how vulnerable and susceptible he was to calculations about personal self-interest and self-dealing, and how disinterested he was in preserving our alliances.”

Tuesday’s crucial election may not be determined by events unfolding outside the US, but there is little doubt that what happens in a country that still spends more on its military than the next eight countries combined, continues to account for something close to a quarter of the world’s GDP and sits at the centre of a global alliance system upon which so many other states depend, is bound to have a huge impact on the world. A second Trump presidency would be good for Vladimir Putin and bad for Ukraine and NATO, which could witness the departure of its key member, the United States. Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy puts himself first and has only the narrowest and short-term conception of US interests. As a result, allies such as South Korea are already contemplating their own nuclear deterrents. Trump would seek to hammer China on trade again, putting huge tariffs on a wide range of goods in order to encourage more expensive alternatives made in the US. Republicans would encourage him to go further on other fronts, but his admiration for autocrats around the world might allow him to come to terms with Xi Jinping on a few issues, notably Taiwan. Overall, Trump’s ignorance, arrogance and erratic nature could be as damaging for the world as his pursuit of specific goals centred on himself.

But it’s back at home that a Trump victory would have a devastating effect on the country, with grim repercussions. Having returned to office after two impeachments and a host of civil and criminal prosecutions, Trump would be unlikely to feel the need to temper his impulses or surround himself with officials urging moderation. A court system that could not control him as a private individual is not going to control him better when he is President of the United States. If the Heritage Foundation, which has worked on a detailed project 2025 gets its way, and there’s no reason to believe it won’t, many career bureaucrats will be dismissed and replaced by people carefully “vetted” to ensure their loyalty to Trump. Although he endlessly repeats the MAGA mantra, “Make America Great Again”, Trump’s ambitions clearly begin and end with himself. While former Presidents desired a glittering legacy, with success traditionally measured in terms that roughly equate to the well-being of the country, the only legacy Trump craves is one that magnifies his own glory.

But what if he loses on Tuesday? His first term began with “alternative facts” about his inauguration and ended with the big lie that the 2020 election was stolen from him. He is already teeing up voters to declare a Harris victory fraudulent, with a massive right-wing apparatus having already spent months priming Trump’s supporters to believe that the only way he could lose is through fraud. “If I lose, I’ll tell you what, it’s possible. Because they cheat. That’s the only way we’re gonna lose, because they cheat”, Trump said in his characteristically dysfunctional way at a rally in September. Several times he has refused to say that he will unequivocally accept the result of the election. Unlike in 2020, Trump’s efforts to subvert the outcome are more thought-out and more strategic and Republicans are primed to support these. Nearly one in five Republicans now believe that Trump should declare the election result invalid if he loses. Republicans have organised a massive effort to monitor election offices, challenge voters and work in election precincts. A large number of election officials who have refused to certify elections since 2020 will be involved in over certifying the vote on Tuesday.

Although Trump has a massive ego, the appetites of a supreme narcissist and the language of a fascist, he has a finely tuned popular antenna that has again taken him to the gates of the White House. Win or lose on Tuesday, Donald Trump as a phenomenon tells us much about where the United States is heading as a dysfunctional superpower. That path could be dangerous, not only for America, but for the world.

* John Dobson is a former British diplomat, who also worked in UK Prime Minister John Major’s office between 1995 and 1998. He is currently a visiting fellow at the University of Plymouth.

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