The long-running Israel-Palestinian question is central to the stability in the region.
LONDON: A year ago, I announced something simple,” said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week. “We would change the face of the Middle East, and we are indeed doing so. Syria is not the same Syria. Lebanon is not the same Lebanon. Gaza is not the same Gaza. And the head of the axis, Iran, is not the same Iran; it has also felt the might of our arm.” No one would argue with Netanyahu that a major realignment in the Middle East is certainly taking place, but Israel is not the only player in the multiple conflicts that have happened, and are still happening three decades since the end of the Cold War. The War on Terror, the debacle of Iraq and Afghanistan, the rise of movements such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, the Arab Spring, and the collapse of old state structures have all played their part in the realignment.
Only a few years ago, Israel and Iran appeared to be maintaining a long-term and seemingly stable balance of power and deterrence. The dramatic events on 7 October last year changed all that. Iranian-backed Hamas and several other Palestinian militant groups launched coordinated attacks on Southern Israel, slaughtering some 1,200 innocent citizens and taking 250 hostages. The attack traumatised the nation, shattering deep-rooted societal beliefs and jeopardising the sense of security. Hamas officials claimed that the attack was a response to the Israeli occupation of their land, blockade of the Gaza Strip, Israeli settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, restriction on the movement of Palestinians, and imprisonment of thousands of Palestinians whom Hamas sought to release by taking Israeli hostages. Reacting to their worst failure of intelligence since the founding of the state, Israeli retaliation has led to the bloodiest war in Gaza’s history, and the deadliest year for Palestinians since the Nakba in 1948, with more than 45,000 killed and 106,000 wounded.
Today, Israel’s right-wing government, led by ultra-nationalist Benjamin Netanyahu, has leveraged the Hamas attack to utterly destroy the Gaza Strip and its inhabitants in a one-sided war which remains ongoing after almost 14 months. Netanyahu and his closely aligned far-right ministers, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, are also using the war to ramp-up the pressure on the civilian population of the West Bank, reigniting the wider Arab and Muslim world in support of the Palestinian right to self-determination not seen in decades. Both Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, who were on the fringe of Israeli politics only a few years ago but are now in charge of powerful cabinet portfolios, vehemently oppose the concept of the “two state solution”—Israel for the Jewish people and Palestine for the Palestinian people—agreed as part of the 1993 Oslo Accord.
The two ministers, both of whom live in the West Bank, are said to support a plan to send all Palestinians living in the West Bank to Jordan, which would be renamed Palestine, and those living in Gaza to Egypt. Both Smotrich and Ben-Gvir were overjoyed last month when President-elect Donald Trump announced that Mike Huckabee would be his nominee for US ambassador to Israel. They believe that this indicated that Trump, who controversially moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in his first term, would support Israel’s annexation of the West Bank, destroying forever the two-state solution.
The Middle East is likely to be pushed high on Trump’s agenda next year because of his aspirations to expand the 2020 Abraham Accords, his signature achievement in his first term, to include Saudi Arabia and other countries. This, he believes, would achieve his dream of being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Israel and Saudi Arabia have never had formal diplomatic relations, and the normalisation of relations between the two countries would be the jewel in the crown of the Accords. But the past 14 months of bloodshed in Israel-Palestine, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen have profoundly changed the Middle East for decades in the future and it’s extremely difficult to imagine more Arab governments normalising their arrangements with Israel anytime soon. It was not so long ago that many prominent figures in the West, Israel and the Arab world were confident that additional Arab countries would join the Abraham Accords, as such a move became less and less controversial. Trump himself constantly spoke about Kuwait, Oman and Saudi Arabia being on the verge of joining. The events on 7 October, however, and the subsequent Israeli genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians have so traumatised a young Arab generation both living within and out of the region that they will shape perceptions of Israel for years to come. Those Arab populations that had come to accept Israel being part of the region and had signed up to their leaders’ bid to normalise relations, are now utterly disillusioned.
Iran’s regional fortunes have been in free-fall since the Hamas attack. Backed by its Western allies, Israel’s decision to confront Teheran’s regional proxies, from Hamas to Hezbollah to the regime of Bashar al-Assad, has put Iran in a bind as it navigates the fast-changing environment to its disadvantage. The challenge is clear: should leaders in Teheran focus on nation-building and deliver the basic needs of the Iranian people, or stay the course and pursue the costly and permanent campaign against the United States and Israel. The long-standing shadow-war is no longer tenable and the Mullahs must decide whether to double down or change course. Although Iran experienced a major increase in oil exports over the past three years, any positive spillover effects have been elusive, with even greater numbers of Iranians falling into poverty. More Iranians have emigrated and the general sense of hopelessness in the country has reached new depths. The silver bullet to counter sanctions and mitigate against economic protest was meant to be Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s “Look East” policy, which led to Teheran’s controversial backing of Russia’s war against Ukraine. But while Russia and China have given diplomatic support to Teheran in its conflict with Western powers, this has not stopped the rapid decline of the Iranian economy, with many experts openly warning of an impending cataclysm. There’s a growing fear that this could result in a surge of activity to develop a nuclear weapon, a move that would inevitably lead to retaliation by Israel and the US.
As Syria’s fleeing dictator arrived in Moscow, following the sudden downfall of his murderous regime, there was huge embarrassment in the Kremlin. Its chief propagandist, Vladimir Solovyov, uncomfortably admitted on air that Russia was unable to come to Assad’s defence because it was “busy” in Ukraine. Donald Trump, whom many propagandists have assumed to be a fellow traveller, indicated that he shared Russia’s view, writing on his Truth Social that “Assad has fled the country as his protector, Vladimir Putin, was not interested in protecting him anymore”. Trump then claimed on Truth Social, in capital letters, that America has no interest in Syria. But this is simply not the case. Assad and his father before him cast a long and dark shadow over the Levant for more than fifty years, and while the regime’s collapse is a cause of intense and bittersweet celebration for Syrians, it has led not only to great dangers, but opportunities in the region. A successful transition in Syria will not only consolidate Iran’s and Russia’s defeat and departure from the heart of the Middle East, but it will offer Syrians the opportunity to build stability and economic development for themselves and others in the region. On the other hand, a failed transition could usher in a decade or more of civil war, in which Russia, Iran or both could find a way back in. ISIS could make a major resurgence and America’s Kurdish allies might suffer greatly. This is why it’s in America’s interest, along with Britain, Turkey and Europe to ensure that there is a peaceful transition, as the cost of failure could be huge. Just as in Afghanistan, Syria’s gruesome regime has evaporated after being abandoned by its foreign protectors. What comes next may be just as dangerous—and far closer to home.
Although the dramatic collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has added a new dimension to the geo-politics of the Middle East, the long-running Israel-Palestinian question is central to the stability in the region. Meanwhile, Turkey is seeking to advance its proxies in the northeast of Syria to take advantage of Assad’s fall, and the Gulf States are similarly jostling for influence with Syria’s transitional government. The Syrian reverse is forcing Iran to accelerate a rethink of its foreign policy and Russia is desperately trying to negotiate with the HTS to keep control of its important air and naval bases. Then there’s the imminent arrival of Donald Trump pushing his Abraham Accords!
Don’t blink, as 2025 will see even more dramatic and fast moving changes in the Middle East.
*John Dobson is a former British diplomat, who also worked in UK Prime Minister John Major’s office between 1995 and 1998. He is currently a visiting fellow at the University of Plymouth.