If Imran Khan is jailed and he and his party are no longer available as a channel for dissent, the people of Pakistan will choose non-democratic means to express their fury.
With a plummeting economy, Pakistan has been on a frantic borrowing spree to fund its expenditure and meet its debt repayments, scrambling to avoid default. Home to the world’s fifth-largest population and a $350 billion economy, Pakistan’s economic productivity has fallen to record lows in the past six years, domestic revenues and foreign reserves have shrunk, the currency has depreciated, unemployment is soaring and political corruption is sky-high. The country’s foreign debt has nearly doubled since 2016, reaching a monumental $131 billion. Alarm bells are ringing loudly even as Pakistan’s leaders are refusing to listen. Instead they appear pre-occupied with one man, former Prime Minister Imran Khan. The country is gripped by the battle between him and the rest of the political and military establishment.
Imran Khan fell from power after losing a confidence vote in parliament last year, but his dismissal was widely blamed on the military withdrawing their support for him. In Pakistan it’s common for the military to intervene in the nation’s politics on a regular basis. Having courted and then antagonised the generals, Khan’s criticisms of the military and the United States became more and more direct, claiming that both were involved in his downfall. In May came an appearance in court to face some of the many charges ranged against him, after which he was hustled off to prison, only to be released when a judge ordered him to be freed. His supporters were enraged by his jailing, turning on the military and attacking buildings and memorials, even ransacking a senior officer’s residence. The response was the arrests of thousands of party workers of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), a political party set up by the former cricket star in 1996.
Following his removal from power by the military in April last year, Imran Khan made daily headlines in the press with his fiery speeches and tweets directed at the government and the army. That was until March, when the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (Pemra) banned broadcasts of the former prime minister’s speeches and press conferences on the grounds that he was promoting hate speech and attacking state institutions. In May, after Khan’s arrest on corruption charges prompted nationwide protests, Pemra issued a directive banning media channels from providing airtime to individuals who promote hate speech. Khan was not named in the directive, but journalists say it was clear the directive referred to him. Hamid Mir, a renowned Pakistani journalist who has worked for newspapers for decades told the Guardian that history was repeating itself. ‘Pemra banned speeches and interviews with (former president) Nawaz Sharif, and interviews with (former president) Asif Ali Zadari and (Nawaz’s daughter) Maryam Nawaz were not aired. Now it’s Imran Khan. Nothing has changed’.
It was particularly significant, therefore, that the BBC decided to broadcast at prime time last Sunday a lengthy interview with Imran Khan, allowing him to freely express his views and hopes on the current situation in Pakistan.
Khan was initially asked why he thought he could win against the country’s military, when so many leaders before him had lost.
‘Mainly because I don’t think any party ever had so much public support as currently my party has’, he replied, ‘so my thesis is that if the public is standing with you, then it’s very difficult to defeat any party that has over 70 percent rating in the country’.
When challenged that he was simply experiencing the traditional pattern of Pakistani politics – the military gets unhappy with a political leader and turfs him out – Khan said that the whole political system in Pakistan has evolved.
‘The judiciary has asserted its independence in the past 16 or 17 years, whereas before it was part of the executive. Our media during that time has been one of the most vibrant medias in the world, the reason why my political party was able to grow. The problem is that the current establishment is trying to roll back the clock. The situation right now is that people are being intimidated – there’s a reign of terror – it’s like back in Nazi Germany time when you are taken out at night and houses are raided. So people are scared. Whenever there will be elections, you will see the biggest turn-out in the country, with people coming out to vote against this political engineering which is being attempted. When my government was removed on 9 April 2022, the following day hundreds of thousands of my supporters came out on the streets all over Pakistan, protesting against the move. This has never happened before. Subsequently, rather than the party being demoralised and becoming irrelevant, as in the past, the party actually grew in strength. Out of 37 by-elections, and despite the establishment supporting the government parties, my party won 30 of them. So the popularity of my party has actually increased in the country’.
Khan was reminded that he has spoken of talking to the military in the past few weeks. He has also publicly accused army intelligence of being behind the assassination attempt on him. What did he want to talk to the military about?
‘Well actually since my government was ousted, I have been talking to the army Chief. I met him twice and I also had a team that was talking with him. The only thing we were trying to get from him was what were the issues in removing my government? Secondly, is there any other way for the country than free and fair elections? Pakistan’s economy is down in the dumps. We have the worst economic indicators in our history. So what we were trying to tell the military was – forget about PTI and think about the country. How is the country going to get out of this economic mess? The only way is the stability that would come from free and fair elections’.
Did he regret his supporters attacking military installations after he was slung into jail?
‘You know, I have been in politics for 27 years and never have I advocated violence. I have been telling my party workers that violence will not suit us as it will take elections away from us. Going back to 3 November when the assassination attempt took place and I had these bullet wounds, even then when my supporters came out protesting there was no arson. On 9 May when I was in jail, I discovered that it was all pre-planned. The army abducted me, but the police could have come to take me as I didn’t have any force with me. Why did the army abduct me? The way they handled it they broke windows and beat up people. I was also hit and taken away like a terrorist. Those images were always going to spark protest, but the arson was not the work of my party’.
Does he think this was a conspiracy to discredit him and his party?
‘Every day since 9 May confirms my belief that this was a planned conspiracy to wipe out my Party. Remember, this didn’t just start on 9 May. This attempt to wipe out my party and make it ineffective for elections has been going on for many months. There are now 140 cases against me; me, a 70-year-old man, known for 50 years in the country during which I didn’t have a single criminal case against me’.
Khan was then questioned on his criticism of both the military and the United States, in particular whether in the outside world he has many significant supporters.
‘I am a firm believer that other countries cannot fix the problem within Pakistan’, he replied. ‘It is the people of this country that must fix it. So I have no expectations of any political leader or western country to support me. But what I do expect from them is to profess western values of democracy, of the rule of law, against custodial torture, against human rights abuse. These should not just be used against China or Hong Kong, or against Russia, they should be consistent policies. When there are human rights abuses or there is the rolling back of democratic structure, democracies should speak out against it’.
Relating to his claim that tens of thousands of PTI party activists had been arrested, including the entire leadership apart from himself, what was left of the party that took him to power?
‘As I said, what is going on is unprecedented. Tomorrow I shall be going to court for 19 cases, requesting 19 bails. All they have to do is dismiss one bail and I shall be jailed tomorrow. The situation right now is that there is no rule of law. There is a total violation of human rights and custodial torture going on. Worst of all, our democracy is being dismantled’.
Was he concerned that bail in one of the 19 cases might not be renewed and that he would be sent off to jail?
‘I am mentally prepared that, if not tomorrow, I could be jailed a few days later’ I have about 40 cases of terrorism against me. Then they have just slapped a murder case on me. In a remote city of Pakistan some lawyer prepared a case against me and this lawyer gets murdered. Everyone knows that it was a family feud as it was in Baluchistan where there are many family feuds. And I’m now charged with murder!’
Does he think there is a way out of this situation when the state is ranged against him?
‘The difference now is that over 70 percent of the people are standing with my party. This is unprecedented. Such an overwhelming support for my party has never happened before. No matter how hard they (the military) try to control and break them, in my opinion when you have such overwhelming public support, it’s impossible for you to lose’.
But what about his own safety? There was an assassination attempt against him last year, and this might not be the only attempt.
‘Yes, there is danger’, he acknowledged, ‘and I might be killed. There’s a certainty about me going to jail – it may be a matter of one or two weeks, maybe tomorrow. The point is, the reason why we’re in this mess right now is that we haven’t been able to fix our political system. We haven’t been able to move towards a proper democracy. In the past 20 years we made great progress and our democratic institutions were gradually getting stronger. Now what is happening is that everything is being rolled back, because the military establishment has decided that they do not want me back in power’.
When reminded that other leaders had taken exile, taking the option of living elsewhere, at least for a period, would he ever leave? ‘
No question’, he insisted, ‘Pakistan is my home. Other leaders who left Pakistan had massive corruption charges against them, and they did a deal that if they left the country the cases against them would be dropped. That’s what used to happen. In my case, I shall stand and fight all these cases, because I know they are bogus. There’s no question of leaving my country’.
At the time of going to press, Imran Khan has not been arrested and remains a free man. However, as the most popular politician in the country, he presents the army with a conundrum. If he is jailed and he and his party are no longer available as a channel for dissent, the people will choose non-democratic means to express their fury. Civil unrest is already alarming in Pakistan because of the economic crisis. If Khan is incarcerated, to use an old English saying, the generals could then find themselves going from the frying pan into the fire!
John Dobson is a former British diplomat, who also worked in UK Prime Minister John Major’s office between 1995 and 1998. He is currently Visiting Fellow at the University of Plymouth. John Dobson is a former British diplomat, who also worked in UK Prime Minister John Major’s office between 1995 and 1998. He is currently Visiting Fellow at the University of Plymouth.