New Delhi: This attack appears to be more than just a random act of terror; it was likely a strategic move to sabotage a significant geopolitical shift in the region.
Every terror attack carries a motive. Following extensive investigations and intelligence gathered from networks in Israel, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, this writer has come to believe that the horrific attack by Hamas terrorists on Israeli civilians—where 1,400 innocent lives were brutally taken and 251 people, including women and children, were taken hostage—was not just an isolated act of violence. It was a calculated attempt to derail a peace process that was gaining traction. This potential agreement could have led to Saudi Arabia normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel, contingent on the establishment of a Palestinian state.
This attack appears to be more than just a random act of terror; it was likely a strategic move to sabotage a significant geopolitical shift in the region. It evokes a scene from the movie “The Godfather 3,” where Michael Corleone, reflecting on a brutal attack, says, “Joe Zasa, would never pull something like this without backing. He’s just muscle, an enforcer, he’s nothing. He doesn’t have the wit or ambition… Our true enemy, has not yet shown his face.” Just as Zasa was a front for more sinister forces, the Hamas attack might mask deeper motives and players who stand to gain from disrupting peace in the Middle East.
On October 6, 2023, Brett McGurk, the White House coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, believed that a historic peace deal in the region was within reach. The Biden administration was on the cusp of achieving what many before had attempted but failed: a comprehensive agreement that would bring lasting peace. McGurk, meeting with a delegation of Saudi diplomats, was drafting a blueprint for a Palestinian state, which would be the cornerstone of a grand bargain where Saudi Arabia would establish diplomatic ties with Israel in exchange for this new state.
The potential breakthrough promised a monumental shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. For decades, the Arab world had refused to recognize Israel due to the unresolved Palestinian issue. A deal with Saudi Arabia, a country that considers itself the leader of the Muslim world, would have been a game-changer. It would have paved the way for other Arab and Muslim-majority nations to follow suit, marking a significant step toward stability and peace in a region long plagued by conflict.
As U.S. and Saudi officials worked to finalize this historic deal, their focus extended beyond mere diplomatic normalization. Saudi Arabia had already committed resources to revamp Palestine’s infrastructure, including its electrical grid and welfare system. They were also formulating plans to combat systemic corruption within the Palestinian Authority, outlining governance reforms necessary to establish a stable and transparent government in the West Bank. This ambitious blueprint represented a new era of cooperation and progress in the region.
But on October 7, 2023, everything changed. Hamas, the terrorist organization that governs the Gaza Strip, launched an unprecedented attack on Israel. The brutal assault shattered the tentative calm and upended fragile diplomatic efforts. Within hours, hopes for a breakthrough gave way to fears of an escalating conflict. By the next morning, the gravity of the situation became evident. Secretary of State Antony Blinken rushed to the White House for an emergency briefing with President Joe Biden and McGurk. Blinken had intended to travel to Saudi Arabia to continue peace negotiations with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Instead, he found himself addressing a rapidly deteriorating situation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The timing of the attack was devastating. It came just as groundwork for a major diplomatic breakthrough was being laid. The Hamas assault plunged the region back into violence, sowing chaos and distrust at a time when peace seemed closer than ever. The Biden administration’s plans, and McGurk’s belief in a near-term solution, were suddenly overshadowed by the urgent need to respond to the unfolding crisis. The repercussions of this attack extended far beyond immediate violence. It deepened the divide between Israelis and Palestinians, hardened positions, and made negotiations even more challenging. For Saudi Arabia and other potential Arab partners in the peace process, the attack posed a significant dilemma. Normalizing relations with Israel amid escalating violence would be difficult to justify both domestically and regionally.
For the Biden administration, the challenge shifted from merely salvaging a peace deal to managing a rapidly worsening security situation. The dream of a grand bargain that would reshape the Middle East now seemed far more distant. The events of October 7th underscored the fragility of Middle Eastern politics, where years of diplomatic effort can be undone in a single day of violence. In a call with Biden, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed grave concern. He warned that Hamas’s invasion of southern Israel could be a prelude to a broader offensive against the Jewish state. “In the Middle East, if you’re seen as weak, you’re roadkill,” Netanyahu stated. “We need to respond decisively, and we need the U.S. to stand with us. If not, all our enemies will be emboldened.”
Biden assured Netanyahu of unwavering U.S. support, echoing McGurk’s message: “We’re with you.” However, the administration’s strategy aimed at more than just supporting Israel. It sought to prevent a wider regional conflict that could draw in the United States and further destabilize the Middle East. The focus was on containing the violence, securing the release of the 251 hostages taken by Hamas, and dismantling Hamas’s military capabilities—a formidable challenge requiring both diplomacy and strategic resolve.
In the aftermath, McGurk and his team were left to piece together their shattered plans. The attack served as a stark reminder of the complexities of achieving peace in a region where mistrust, grievances, and the spectre of violence loom large. The events of October 6th and October 7th, 2023 underscored just how precarious the path to peace remains in the Middle East, where decades of diplomatic efforts can be undone in a single violent act.
In the words of Michael Corleone, “Our true enemy has not yet shown his face.” This sentiment resonates profoundly in the current turmoil engulfing Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah. The ongoing conflict is not merely a battle between visible factions but a manifestation of deeper, systemic issues that threaten the stability of the entire region.
As hostilities escalate, one must consider the underlying forces at play—political, ideological, and socio-economic. The immediate clashes may capture headlines, but they often overshadow the more insidious threats lurking in the shadows. Radical ideologies, external influences, and the legacy of historical grievances compound the situation, creating a volatile environment ripe for exploitation.
Israel finds itself not just in combat with militant groups but in a broader struggle against the narratives and ideologies that fuel extremism. The true adversaries may not always bear arms; they could be the ideologies that inspire hatred, the political agendas that stoke division, and the global players that perpetuate conflict for their own ends.
In this context, understanding the complexity of the region becomes essential. It’s not just about defeating Hamas or Hezbollah; it’s about addressing the root causes that allow such groups to thrive. The real enemy may be the very environment of fear, mistrust, and violence that has been cultivated over decades. As the conflict unfolds, the challenge for Israel and its allies is to recognize and confront these unseen adversaries. Only by doing so can they hope to achieve lasting peace and stability in a region fraught with challenges. Until then, the spectre of the true enemy will loom, reminding us that the fight is not merely against those who show their faces but also against the ideologies and forces that remain hidden in the shadows.
Author and journalist Savio Rodrigues is Founder and Editor in Chief of Goa Chronicle.