If the shells and other weapons do arrive, Ukraine will be more than compensated for North Korea’s entry into the war and Putin’s ruse may be seen to have backfired.
LONDON: President Vladimir Putin is getting desperate. Since he ordered the full scale invasion of Ukraine more than two and a half years ago, a war he expected to win in just a few weeks and therefore a catastrophic misjudgement, Russian forces have suffered over 600,000 casualties, according to US intelligence sources. This figure is a dramatic increase from the assessment made last year, which concluded that as of December 2023, Putin’s forces had experienced some 315,000 casualties, about 90 percent of Russia’s military personnel at the start of the invasion. The situation is grim and getting worse. Russian forces have reportedly lost at least five division’s worth of armoured vehicles and tanks in Pokrovsk area alone since the beginning of their offensive operation to seize Avdiivka in October 2023 and during intensified Russian offensive operations in Western Donetsk Oblast in summer this year.
Adding to the Kremlin’s concerns are the 1000 or so men who have recently deserted from the Russian army with the help of a volunteer group called “Idite Lesom”, which colloquially means “get lost”. The group has also helped tens of thousands of Russians dodge the draft. A recent report from Idite Lesom revealed that the number of requests from potential deserters rose tenfold from January 2023 to January 2024. Two thirds have left the country, primarily for Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan – countries that allow Russians to enter without a passport. The rest are hiding. Although most western countries offer little help, the BBC Russian service recently reported the first approval of EU entry documents for a group of six deserters from the Russian army, giving them the right to apply for asylum in France.
So how is the Kremlin compensating for the staggering losses of personnel so that it can maintain its aggression against Ukraine? According to the investigative news outlet Verstka earlier this month, the Russian military is seeing an influx of older contract soldiers attracted by large bounties. Russia’s southwest region of Belgorod, for example, is offering a nationwide record of 3 million roubles ($31,200) in one-time payments for signing military contracts to fight in Ukraine. Volunteers aged 45 and over now make up more than half of new recruits in Moscow, according to a source in the Mayor’s Office, who also confirmed that the average age of recruits has risen from 40 at the start of the year to about 50.
Russian ground forces in Ukraine have become a hodgepodge of regular units whose ranks have been topped up by mobilised soldiers and those who have been attracted by large bounties to solve their financial problems. Desperate to avoid another wave of mobilisation, which was highly unpopular among Russian society in 2022 and even threatened his reign, Putin has been forced to look for alternative sources for the meat-grinder of Ukraine, where some 1,200 soldiers are killed or wounded every day because of the Kremlin’s reliance on “human wave” tactics. His latest ploy is to amend Russia’s criminal code, permitting criminal suspects to avoid prosecution if they join the military and fight in Ukraine. All charges will also be dropped if they receive a state award or are discharged due to injuries sustained in combat. Previously, only convicted prisoners were allowed to have their charges terminated by joining the army, but this supply has now dried up, particularly among those convicted of light charges and those who do not have long to serve. Word has spread that life expectancy is extremely short for Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine.
Sensing that numbers are falling well below those needed, a desperate Putin has now appealed to his friend, North Korea’s Kim JongUn, for help. This is not the first time that Putin has turned to his neighbour for support in his invasion of Ukraine. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) recently reported that Pyongyang has provided Moscow with 70 shipments of munitions, which included shells, missiles and anti-tank rockets, in addition to an estimated 8 million rounds of arms. North Korea has been supplying Russia with artillery shells since the first year of the war, and began the delivery of ballistic missiles to Moscow in late 2023. Intelligence sources claimed this month that Pyongyang was now providing half of all shells being used by Moscow in the war. In return Moscow has offered Pyongyang not only the level of political support that serves to embolden Kim, but may also be providing missile technology and possibly even submarine technology as an accelerant to bring the two countries close together.
There is now clear evidence that Kim has responded to Putin’s plea for manpower. South Korea’s spy agency has already identified dozens of North Korean officers and one prominent missile development expert, Kim Jong-sik, at Russian frontline positions providing direct guidance to Moscow’s forces on using Pyongyang’s weaponry. These personnel aren’t merely observers; their presence marks North Korea’s shift from arms supplier to active participant.
Last week, the NIS reported that 1,500 members of Pyongyang’s Special Forces had crossed the border to Vladivostok in Russia’s Far East to begin training and some degree of participation in the war. North Korea’s Special Operations Force is one of the most secretive units of its kind in the world and an enigma to Western powers, appearing loyal and highly trained but lacking in advanced military equipment. This represents the first element of what could be a 12,000-strong, four-brigade deployment. A significant commitment never before deployed by Pyongyang.
Quite what the North Korean Special Forces, who speak no Russian, will do in Ukraine is unclear. Given Russia’s front-line tactics, which remain relatively careless of human livesand results in staggering casualties, it’s hard to imagine that they would be deployed to the point of maximum danger.
Ukraine’s eastern front has slowly become a war of attrition and is hardly a traditional arena for covert missions. Some analysts believe that the North Korean forces could be used near the front line to support logistics, such as moving ammunition and digging fortifications. Alternatively, they might be deployed deeper to the rear in order to free-up more of the Kremlin’s own troops. Kyrlo Budanov, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, has predicted that around 2,600 North Korean troops, issued with Russian military uniforms, weapons and fake IDs, will be sent to Kursk by the end of the coming week, a regionwhere troop shortage is most critical. When Ukraine launched an offensive in Kursk in early August, they encountered threadbare border defences manned by only a few conscript troops.
As for South Korea, which to date has focussed on providing Ukraine only with non-lethal aid, a spokesman for President Yoon Suk Yeol confirmed last week that as a result of Pyongyang’s actions, Seoul could re-visit its earlier decision not to send arms to Kyiv. “We would consider supplying weapons for defensive purposes as part of a step-by-step scenario, and if it seems the North Koreans are going too far, we might also consider offensive use,” he told reporters. South Korea, a growing arms exporter, has a large stock of 155mm artillery shells which Ukraine is desperately short of and that its Western allies have struggled to produce in sufficient quantities. Kyiv would be thrilled to receive them, along with a range of offensive weapons from South Korea.
If the shells and other weapons do arrive, Ukraine will be more than compensated for North Korea’s entry into the war and Putin’s ruse may be seen to have backfired. There might even be some smiles in Kyiv – but probably not in Moscow.
John Dobson is a former British diplomat, who also worked in UK Prime Minister John Major’s office between 1995 and 1998. He is currently a visiting fellow at the University of Plymouth.