The very location of Antarctica at the bottom of the planet, like an ice-bound waypoint between the Atlantic, the Pacific and the Indian Oceans, makes it strategically important. It is, therefore, not implausible that it could become militarised at some point.
In the geopolitical games that nations play, curveballs are nothing new. Iran threw one recently by declaring its intention to establish a permanent station in Antarctica. In a television appearance to mark the 35th anniversary of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war last September, the chief of the Iranian Navy, Rear Admiral Shahram Irani said: “We have ownership in Antarctica and the plan is to hoist the Iranian flag there and establish a permanent base.” He was referring to an earlier claim by Teheran that Iranian naval vessels had deployed to Antarctica (never mind if no Iranian ship actually ever ventured south beyond the Strait of Magellan more than 1,500 kilometers from Antarctica!).
Teheran’s Antarctic ambitions, however, raise disturbing questions on the future of the White Continent. Not least because Iran is just one of several countries—including China, Turkey, South Korea and even Pakistan—in the list of wannabe settlers of the frozen continent. Regardless of whether they possess the resources and capabilities to do that, a more pressing question is about their motivation. In an ideal world, pure scientific fervour would have attracted countries to the driest, coldest, and windiest continent on Earth. But in reality, mercantile and military instincts draw them to Antarctica—a very difficult journey on board polar icebreakers and aircraft.
A continent still largely unexplored well over a century after Norway’s Amundsen reached the South Pole on 14 December 1911, the Antarctic wilderness is the most pristine ecosystem on the planet. Although the Antarctic landmass is small, most of it comprises mountains, making it the highest continent. And the intense cold which lowers precipitation (atmospheric moisture falling as snow or sleet) also makes it, technically, the largest desert in the world. Even its icecap is exceptional as 100,000 years of snowfall have piled up without melting because of the subzero temperatures into the largest body of ice in the world. This makes it the largest reservoir of freshwater, containing over 70% of Earth’s total resources.
Antarctica is an amazing natural laboratory, the oceans around it teeming with exotic life forms such as krill (tiny shrimp-like animals vital to the food chain). Harvesting these could feed millions of people. Then there are the oil and coal reserves scattered in and around it such as the Ross Sea with estimates suggesting hundreds of billions of barrels—far more than the oil wealth of some Arab countries. Add to this valuable mineral deposits like copper, gold and uranium beneath the Antarctic peninsula and countries are tempted to look at it as another “ultimate high ground” where the fight for natural resources could be taken to alarming heights.
In fact, the very location of Antarctica at the bottom of the planet (like an ice-bound waypoint between the Atlantic, the Pacific and the Indian Oceans) makes it strategically important. It is, therefore, not implausible that it could become militarised at some point as national interests clash around the South Pole. This clear and present danger escalates as the ice melts due to climate change and Earth’s polar regions become targets of mining. Rising temperatures have already robbed glaciers in the region of trillions of tonnes of ice and advanced technologies will make it easier for Antarctic prospectors to mine Antarctica’s vast natural resources.
For the moment, the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS), which was conceived in 1959 and came into force in 1961, seems to be a good enough guardrail, successfully blocking the territorial claims of seven countries—Argentina, Australia, Chile, France, New Zealand, Norway and the UK. Its Protocol on Environmental Protection (also known as the Madrid Protocol) prohibits military and mining activity on Antarctica. With 54 countries having signed on, the ATS is rightly hailed as the best bet to protect Antarctica’s identity as the last great wilderness on Earth.
However, while the treaty remains in force indefinitely, it would be naïve to think that it is forever immune to the changing contours of geopolitics. The Madrid Protocol, for instance, comes up for review in 2048 when there is no telling how well, or how badly off the world would be in terms of energy security. In an energy-hungry, strife-torn world, a majority of states could vote to make the protocol less stringent: read, make it open season for countries to exploit Antarctica. The seven states with territorial claims may then clamour for recognition of their “rights” once dismissed by the ATS. In fact, the first red flags are already up: according to an International Union for Conservation of Nature report, Antarctic tourism shows more than a ten-fold increase in the last 30 years. This has carved an enormous carbon footprint on Antarctica’s fragile ecosystem and wildlife. Imagine the scene, post-2048, when nations openly set up mining and military facilities there.
Currently there are more than 80 research stations on Antarctica built by some 45 countries. As this number increases, so would the likelihood of countries mining or militarizing Antarctica in the guise of scientific research. Especially since such activity involves the use of dual-use technology. In the absence of any radio noise, for instance, the crystal clear skies of the region are perfect for optical and radio astronomy; but such conditions are also ideal for operating secret radars or weapons systems. China is believed to have done just that, its surveillance facilities in the Ross Sea area clandestinely eavesdropping on telemetry data of rockets launched from northern Australia.
If the Iranian curveball on Antarctica is any indication, expect more states to get on this geopolitical carousel sooner or later. Against this background, India’s polar policy is important. Having signed the ATS in 1983, India is one of its major consultative members and operates two research stations in Antarctica: Maitri (since 1988) and Bharati (since 2012). New Delhi always supported international efforts to keep the status quo on the frozen continent and prevent it from becoming a conflict zone. To acknowledge this, the Indian government passed the Antarctic Act 2022 to “protect the Antarctic environment and dependent ecosystems and to give effect to the Antarctic Treaty.” The Act extends the jurisdiction of Indian courts to Antarctica and sets the limits of engagement for researchers and travellers en route to the White Continent. It strictly regulates activities such as tourism, fishing, environmental protection and waste management. This could be an excellent template for other countries to adopt to ensure the inviolability of Antarctica as a neutral territory and preserve it exclusively for scientific exploration.
Prakash Chandra writes on foreign affairs.