In a wide-ranging conversation, well-known psephologist and television personality Pradeep Bhandari talked of a host of issues. Excerpts:
Q: The results of 2022 elections keep BJP in a comfortable position in run-up to 2024. Do you agree that BJP will see a smooth road in 2024?A: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the only leader in present circumstances who has the ability to pull more than 45% vote share across geographies. With a historic win in Uttar Pradesh in 2022, welfare benefits reaching the poor and no other political challenger having a competitive pan India reach in current circumstance, I do not see 2024 being a difficult challenge for BJP. Only “Modi can defeat Modi” from here on, no other political opponent can. With BJP gaining ground in Telangana, it has got another geography to cover up on seat loss. Nationalism, welfare, Hindutva , Indian self pride that PM Modi represents work for the BJP, which give it a very decisive edge in the national battle. I also forsee some historic steps being implemented by the Modi government in the run-up to 2024. I won’t be surprised if PM Modi in 2024 gets a higher vote share than in 2019.
Q: Do you see Congress recovering from its performance in 2022? In 2024 elections, can it be a poll of opposition unity?
A: When I travel on the ground, I see a strong repulsion in the common voter’s pysche against the Congress. It’s happened systemically with the positions Congress has taken on civilisational and national security matters. INC is doing the politics of 1970s in 2022. With a weakening organization, delusional leadership, and a consistent extreme left of centre stance, I don’t think Congress can improve its performance substantially, marginally it can come up but there are more chances for it to fall. If Amethi was lost in 2019, do not be surprised if Rae Bareli in 2024 gives a non-Congress mandate. From being a party of national polity, Congress has today become a political fringe.
Q: AAP won Punjab in a landslide victory. Do you think AAP will be a challenger to the BJP in future?
A: Many things work for the AAP, it does not carry any historical baggage, it’s a relatively new party and it has potential to grow in the future. But a lot depends on the ideological framework that AAP will stand in the years to come. If it turns out to be a political destination for have-nots in Congress, and backed by the same ecosystem, its national growth will be minimal, and shortlived. However, if it can turn out to represent an ideology which is not perceived anti Hindu and build an original ecosystem, then AAP can grow nationally. Till now it has worked as the new political experiment that people want to try based on Arvind Kejriwal’s face. But please note: as years go by, the states where AAP is governing, can also face natural anti-incumbancy; this is why the ideological growth of the party will determine its national expansion, particularly in the Hindi heartland. For AAP to grow, Congress needs to recede.
Q: What can be the election issue in 2024? How will it be different from elections in 2022?
A: 2024 will be fought on welfarism, it will be fought on civilisational commitment and decades of unfulfilled civilisational commitment which are being fulfilled in Modi 2.0 and it will be fought on PM Modi vs Who. I see after removal of Article 370, the government is committed to solving long-pending civilisational issues. In 2024, households receiving tap water through Jal Shakti will also help the BJP. In 2024, more proportion of SC population can vote the BJP than in 2019/2022. The take off vote the BJP had in 2019 in UP was of non-Yadav OBC, this time, SC can also be added to it. The welfare of Modi in the last seven years has broken the caste barriers which no other leader could in last three decades. It will also be interesting to see the behaviour of Muslim votes in the coming years. Having backed parties since 2014 unsucessfully, the ability of the Muslim vote to have a veto on electoral outcomes has become a thing of the past. The Muslim political ecosystem is not able to come to terms with this yet. Till now it has only deployed the strategy of voting for a party which defeats the BJP. Despite the peak 90% Muslim vote support, the non-BJP parties are not able to convert the seats into winning margins. I anticipate with time, either this will give fuel to politicians like Owaisi to expand beyond Hyderabad, or it may be divided with some portion coming to the BJP. This has to be studied in the coming years.
Q: How would you say your track record has been in predicting elections? In this context, what are your biggest takeaways from the 2022 verdict?
A: I started five years back when I was 25 and UP Elections 2017 was my first elections, and I stayed in UP for two months to predict an absolute accurate opinion and exit poll trend. I feel the beauty of an election is the chance it gives me and my team to go on the ground and interact with the people, experience India in true sense. Our election model is an indigenous, grounds-up model which I call Probability Map of Outcome Model; it takes into account quantitative and qualitative factors. It’s a disrespect to the voter when elections are predicted without any ground work, sitting in AC rooms only based on a calling centre based approach.
Political narrative is arrived from the people, not from hear say conversations through political tourism. Since 2017 we have changed the grammer of election analysis, by talking about seats in psephology. This has helped us to stand out at all critical times, whether predicting BJP being a single largest party in Karnataka 2018, to predicting a 300+ months before 2019, to these 5-state elections where we predicted a 100% accurate vote share seat share trend in Assembly elections 2022. Most satisfying were UP elections 2022, and Punjab 2022 where when most were saying 300+ at 42% vote share conversion, I was not seeing it from the data on ground, and we predicted a less than 280 at 42% vote share, to Punjab where since our first opinion poll I could see a wave election.