“An alliance is likely between the Congress and the Samajwadi Party. Both Mulayam and Akhilesh (UP Chief Minister) are keen for the alliance. UP campaign in-charge Ghulam Nabi Azad will be meeting the SP chief in the days ahead,” the source told The Sunday Guardian. According to the source: “Azad wanted a grand alliance including the BSP with a 2.5 years’ CM tenure for each party. This was conveyed to them. While Mulayam agreed for an alliance with the Congress, he did not consider the idea of bringing in the BSP. Mayawati too dismissed the suggestion, although Congress hasn’t spoken to her directly. Akhilesh is also not ready.”
The source said that with both Mulayam and Mayawati being dismissive of a grand alliance, the Congress has roped in seniors from the RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) and the Janata Dal United to talk to the two UP based parties.
It may be noted that Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who is also the JDU president, had told the media on Wednesday that “if these two big parties (SP, BSP) don’t come together, it will just be a gathbandhan (alliance)”.
According to the source, “Nitish is in touch with Mayawati”. But apparently, Mayawati has not responded favourably. Experts believe that since the Congress desperately needs to stop the BJP from winning one more state and further decimate its relevance, it is floating a grand alliance proposal, but with Mayawati neck and neck with the BJP, it is least likely to fructify.
Asked about what were Congress’ conditions for teaming up formally with the SP, the source said these are yet to be decided. “No conditions have been discussed. There haven’t been any talks on seat sharing either. But Azad will be meeting Mulayam to discuss these things.”
The Congress, the source said, may not claim the CM’s post, but much would also depend on the final outcome of the elections that are scheduled early next year. While the Congress is going through an existential crisis, with only one major state Karnataka under its rule, the SP is unsure of a victory due to the anti-incumbency factor that has been doubled by its internal bickering, with a power struggle brewing between Chief Minister Akhilesh and his uncle and SP’s UP president, Shivpal Yadav. Although the party tried to put up a united face when CM Akhilesh’s Vikas Yatra was flagged off on Thursday, the Yadav family feud has further alienated the Muslims, who are traditionally known to tactically vote for the party which is most likely to defeat the BJP. The minority community is disenchanted with the SP for its failure to prevent communal riots in the state and is increasingly being courted by the BSP. The SP fears the Muslim votes may split and a percentage of them might prefer the BSP, in case the SP is no longer considered the winnable party.
The Congress, whose Sheila-for-CM strategy failed to attract the Brahmins, is keen for an alliance. It fears for its existence in UP where it was able to win only two seats—the Gandhi family pocketboroughs Amethi and Rae Bareli—in the 2014 general elections. Both parties are hopeful that a Congress-SP alliance may seem like a winning disposition and, thus, attract the minority community.
In reality, it may be well short of a victory with the BJP strongly wooing the non-Yadav OBCs and the non-Jatav Dalits (who voted for it in 2014), who together with the upper castes, can hand it a simple majority.
Meanwhile, the Congress is also trying to rope in the Rashtriya Lok Dal of Ajit Singh, which has pockets of influence in western UP. “Team PK is in touch with RLD,” the source told this correspondent.