The near-spilt in the Samajwadi Party, the erosion in the Bahujan Samaj Party’s vote base and the failure of the Congress to project itself as a viable alternative, have left Muslims in Uttar Pradesh in a dilemma.
While Muslims, in general, find Prime Minister Narendra Modi “acceptable”, the statements issued from time to time by the Hindutva brigade led by the likes of Sakshi Maharaj and Yogi Adityanath are making the community wary of the BJP. Prof H.R. Ahmad, a faculty member in the local degree college explained, “The Prime Minister must control his party leaders who issue statements that are bound to hurt the sentiments of the Muslim community. Raking up issues related to the Shariat (read triple talaq) at this time, is bound to instil fear among the minorities. These things indicate that the BJP does not have confidence in its own development agenda.”
The Muslims, who had been strongly supportive of the SP, are now having second thoughts about the future of the party. The recent infighting in SP that shows no signs of abating, has forced Muslims to search for other options. “More than the infighting in SP, it is the attitude of the Akhilesh government that has left us disappointed. He did not bother to visit Muzaffarnagar during the 2013 riots and did not ensure proper rehabilitation of the displaced families. Till date, Muslims are at the receiving end in western UP where Hindu leaders dominate over the administration,” said Sharib, a small-time businessman in Shamli district.
Muslims are also feeling “cheated” at the manner in which the state government handled the Dadri lynching issue and then the Kairana migration issue. “It seems that the Samajwadi government is working under the pressure of the BJP. Why else would any government give compensation on the death of a murder accused (in the Dadri lynching case)?” asked Shirin, a young college student in Lucknow. Besides, the visible shift of Yadav votes towards the BJP is another reason why Muslims no longer feel that SP is a safe bet.
The BSP has started positioning itself as a viable alternative, but Muslims seem to be unwilling to trust Mayawati. “The BSP would readily ally with the BJP if it falls short of a majority. Mayawati has done this in the past and will do it in the future as well. In 1996, BSP had a pre-poll alliance with the Congress, but after the alliance, the BSP happily formed government with the BJP in the state. Is there any guarantee that the party will not repeat the act?” said Mohd Athar, a retired government employee in Lucknow. “We would prefer the Congress but only if the party is seen fighting fit. We will not waste our votes if their candidates are not in the race,” said Ghazala Halim, an AMU student. Dr R.K. Singh, a professor in political science, said the Muslim dilemma would lead to tactical voting which would work to BJP’s advantage. “Muslim votes will be divided between SP, BSP and Congress. A small portion will go with Muslim-based parties that have jumped into the fray. This division of minority votes and consolidation of majority votes in favour of the BJP will make it a winner.”