With J. Jayalalithaa’s passing away, can the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, which she inherited from her mentor and political guru, the late M.G. Ramachandran and did not bequeath to anyone in particular, survive for long? This thought must have been running through the minds of many a power hungry politician in the country as “Amma” lay in state and more than half a million people thronged the streets of Chennai to have a last glimpse of their beloved Chief Minister. Even if the party survives, what form it will take is anybody’s guess. Will it maintain its distance with the national parties or will the present leadership of Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam and his Cabinet colleagues try to keep the flock together invoking the name of the departed leader as was the case when she was alive? These are questions that will be answered in the course of the next four-and-a-half years the party is slated to be in power. There are pessimists who are unwilling to give it that much time. While it is too early to predict the party’s future, it is true that AIADMK is passing through a phase much graver than in 1987 when its founder MGR passed away on yet another December day at the same Apollo Hospital. At that time Jayalalithaa was there, though marginalised in the beginning by MGR’s widow Janaki and the coterie surrounding her, to guide the ship through rough seas amid turbulent weather. She succeeded in reuniting the party, which was split into two, and take it to a much higher level than even MGR envisaged. Now the party has none in its ranks with that charisma to turn to at times of crisis. Unlike at the time of MGR’s death, the demise of Jayalalithaa has opened up Tamil Nadu politics to national players after virtually five decades of Dravidian dominance. That makes AIADMK even more vulnerable.
In her personal life, Jayalalithaa had her confidante Sasikala Natarajan, though there were ups and downs in their relationship. But in her political life there was no one of that nature. She has not named anyone as her successor, not even given a hint about it. Nobody knows whether the party is bound by any bylaws or even a semblance of guidelines. Jayalalithaa’s was the final word in everything related to the party and governance; a goddess of all things. There was never an explanation as to why she picked her Finance Minister Panneerselvam to act as Chief Minister in her absence twice, in 2001-02 and 2014-15, when she had to undergo imprisonment in the disproportionate assets case. Nor did anyone dare to question her on her choice. So to say that it was Jayalalithaa’s wish that Panneerselvam lead the party in her absence is just guesswork. That brings the spotlight on her “shadow” Sasikala. In all these years, there was not a single instance when the outside world learnt that Sasikala had indeed influenced any of Jayalalithaa’s decisions. She has never addressed an election meeting or a party gathering, but she was always there by the side of Jayalalithaa. The only exceptions were in 1996 and 2011, when Jayalalithaa gave marching orders to Sasikala and the so called Mannargudi Mafia—a reference to the place from which Sasikala hails—from her Poes Garden residence. They were reinstated after a couple of months, much to the consternation of many partymen who had celebrated her ouster by bursting crackers. Again there was no explanation on what went wrong or right between Jayalalithaa and her best friend. It is this closeness between the two that gives credence to speculation that Sasikala might emerge, if she is not already, as the kingmaker of the party. But Sasikala is no Jayalalithaa. She has no celluloid background, which is an added qualification for any player in Dravidian politics. Even an ordinary party supporter will admit that Sasikala does not have the mettle to lead the party in an election. To think that such a person is capable of making Panneerselvam and company dance to her tunes seems to be too farfetched at this point of time. Moreover, AIADMK is no Congress party where the high command, a euphemism for a Nehru-Gandhi family member, remote controls its Prime Minister and Chief Ministers. Only time can prove what role awaits Sasikala—of Jayalalithaa or of Janaki.
Compared to AIADMK, M. Karunanidhi’s DMK appears a shade better. The ageing patriarch may be game for another go at the Chief Minister’s chair. But he is too old and ill for that. Heir apparent M.K. Stalin is doing everything in his capacity to be in the midst of the people. He too will find it difficult to fill in the vacuum created by Jayalalithaa. It is unlikely that DMK will try to capitalise on these troubled times for the AIADMK. In earlier times, there would have been moves to wean away some MLAs from the other side. After all, a change of guard could be effected with the help of 20 legislators. In a state where money can do anything, this is not very difficult. But Karunanidhi’s wisdom would counsel him not to spoil Stalin’s chances by such a misadventure. That is why he is trying to woo estranged older son Alagiri back to family fold. Along with the money power of daughter Kanimozhi, the wily politician knows that there is nothing wrong in waiting for the right time, even if it is four years later.
The BJP and Congress are sure to make efforts to capitalise on this void. Much has been seen and read in the warmth Prime Minister Narendra Modi elicited from the crowd, as well as his interaction with Sasikala, putting his hand over her head and having a word or two with her husband Natarajan. It is even rumoured that it was the Prime Minister who took the initiative in swearing in Panneerselvam before publicly announcing the death of Jayalalithaa. Venkaiah Naidu’s presence in Chennai earlier in the day has been singled out as evidence of BJP’s interest in ensuring continuity in governance in Tamil Nadu. It will be foolish to believe that by doing so the party and the Centre have no other intention but the well being of the Tamil populace. The BJP has two things in mind. Unlike the Lok Sabha where the party has brute majority, the Rajya Sabha has become a stumbling block for the NDA, with the Opposition stalling all their manoeuvres. The AIADMK has 13 members in the Upper House. If the party can rope them in along with a win in the coming UP Assembly elections, BJP hopes to tighten its grip over governance and push through its cherished legislations, which otherwise will not see the light of day. Plus an alliance with AIADMK will be crucial for BJP to install a Sangh Parivar faithful in Rashtrapati Bhawan next year when the incumbent Pranab Mukherjee’s term ends. Till these two missions are achieved, BJP will definitely try to be close to Sasikala and Panneerselvam. Remember, it can browbeat Sasikala if it wants since she too is party to the disproportionate assets cases, which will come up in due course.
As for the Congress, it is the end of the road anyway. Rahul Gandhi knows it well. That is the reason he did not even bother to look up his party ally Karunanidhi during his two visits to Chennai, once when Jayalaltithaa was in hospital and the other to bid farewell to her at Rajaji Hall. The last time was when Karunanidhi himself was undergoing treatment in a hospital. It is a cruel irony because if Congress has an address in the state and eight MLAs in the Assembly, it is solely because of DMK. But then that is politics. He should also know that AIADMK will entertain him only to keep the BJP at bay.
In its 46 years of existence, AIADMK has had only two towering leaders domineering over the party. Both became darlings of the masses. All of a sudden the party has been orphaned. It will be a daunting task for Panneerselvam and Sasikala to be in that mould. The party cannot possess Jayalalithaa any longer. Wailing, inconsolable women were shouting that even death cannot separate their Amma from them. Will they, as Jayalalithaa had believed, decide a successor for her? There hangs the future of AIADMK.