Rebels candidates in the BJP and Samajwadi Party could turn the Bahujan Samaj Party into the proverbial dark horse in the ongoing assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh. The Bahujan Samaj Party that is running a subdued but relentless campaign has largely been ignored by the media. The party is keeping a low profile and does not have a very flashy campaign that can grab eye-balls.
Sources, however, claim that the BSP has been making inroads among Muslims and is consolidating Dalits across the state. BSP leaders have persuaded Shia cleric Maulana Kalbe Jawwad to issue an appeal in favour of the party and so has the Shahi Imam of Jama Masjid. Kamal Farouqi, former chairman of Delhi Minority Commission, has also announced his support to the BSP.
BSP leaders are now focusing on the Shibli National College in Azamgarh which is a hub of Muslim academicians in eastern UP. Azamgarh is the parliamentary constituency of SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav and the BSP feels that weaning away Muslims in eastern UP should not be a major problem.
The party has already got the Qaumi Ekta Dal, led by Ansari brothers, on its side and they wield considerable influence in about six districts of Purvanchal. BSP leader Ashok Siddhartha, on the other hand, has been interacting with students in various colleges, including the Aligarh Muslim University. He has been addressing seminars on the role of Muslims in politics and plans to win over Muslim youth through these programmes.
Besides, Mayawati has also been announcing that if her party falls short of numbers, she would prefer to sit in the opposition but would neither give nor take support from BJP. She is trying to set at rest doubts about a possible BSP-BJP alliance for the fourth time in Uttar Pradesh.
The efforts of the BSP were evident in the first two phases of polls where the party is believed to have improved upon its 2012 tally. The Samajwadi Party and the Congress are facing rebel candidates and in some places the alliance candidates are overlapping.
According to Samajwadi sources, the party is facing about 37 rebel candidates, some of whom are contesting on the RLD and Lok Dal symbol. “These candidates had been working in their constituencies since the past two years and denial of ticket at the last minute is also damaging our vote base”, admitted a senior SP leader. The Congress is also facing rebel candidates in about a dozen seats.
Mayawati, meanwhile, has been using the reservation statement made by RSS functionary Manmohan Vaidya against the BJP and hopes to replicate the Bihar example on this issue. “Mayawati is hitting where it hurts most. She is repeatedly telling Dalits that reservation would end if the BJP came to power and her campaign is apparently having the desired impact. The Samajwadi-Congress alliance could have been formidable but they took too much time to iron out the creases. As elections move towards eastern Uttar Pradesh, issues like casteism will dominate over religion and this will be advantageous for the BSP”, said a senior political analyst A K Awasthi.
The BSP prospects have been boosted further in western UP where the RLD has eaten into the Jat vote base of the BJP. “All pre-poll surveys are showing us at our lowest ebb and that is going in our favour because our cadres are working twice as hard. The media will be surprised when BSP emerges as the single largest party”, said a party functionary.