AHMEDABAD: The BJP aims to win every seat with a margin of more than 5 lakh votes.
Every constituency is important in the Lok Sabha elections, but Gujarat holds special significance as it is the home turf of two key leaders of the ruling party: Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister as well as election strategist Amit Shah. Polling for all 26 seats in Gujarat will take place in the third phase on 7 May.
With the cancellation of Congress candidate Nilesh Kumbhani’s nomination in the Surat constituency, and the withdrawal of the rest of the nominations, the BJP has won the Surat seat unopposed. Now, 266 candidates are contesting for the remaining 25 seats, including 19 women. There are byelections in five Assembly seats in the state as well, following the resignations of the MLAs from Vijapur, Porbandar, Manavdar, Khambhat, and Vaghodia. They left the Congress to join the BJP.
POLITICAL SCENARIO IN GUJARAT
The Bharatiya Janata Party won all the seats in Gujarat in both the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP has been ruling the state since 1998 without any interruption. The position of the Congress party has not been challenging for the BJP for many years due to consistently weak leadership at the local level. Over the last ten years, many senior Congress leaders who had influence over different communities have joined the BJP, and this trend continues even today. Voters and workers committed to the Congress ideology are disappointed as there is no influential leader in the Congress to halt the party’s decline. This is the reason why, despite extreme disaffection with the BJP at the grassroots, the BJP has benefited from the lack of a better alternative for voters. Even the new generation of youth is hesitant to join the Congress. The Congress accuses the BJP of practicing unethical politics in the state, but it is also a reality that the Congress has remained so weak that it has almost lost its ability to keep its leaders and workers united.
LOW CHANCES OF BJP’S HAT-TRICK
In this scenario, the BJP is probably less worried about winning seats, which is why it aims to win each seat by a margin of more than 5 lakhs. Party workers and leaders are also emphasizing this in their meetings. Obviously, it’s a BJP strategy to create a narrative in its favour and make voters start believing the BJP is the undisputed frontrunner and the winner. However, in reality, it is neither easy nor possible for the BJP to win every seat with a margin of 5 lakhs.
If we look at the statistics, the BJP won 26 seats in 2014 with an average lead of 250,873 votes and in 2019 with an average lead of 336,699 votes. Navsari, Vadodara, and Surat were the only three constituencies in 2014 that were won by more than five lakh margins.
Similarly, Navsari, Vadodara, Surat, and Gandhinagar were the four constituencies won by more than five lakh margins in 2019. There is a big difference between these two elections and 2024. In 2014, there was special enthusiasm among voters to make a “Gujarati” Prime Minister. While Narendra Modi contested from Varanasi constituency, he also contested from Vadodara and won by a margin of 570,128 votes. However, later he strategically relinquished it and retained the Varanasi constituency. There was a Modi wave in the 2014 elections.
There was new hope among voters. Then in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections too, on the wave of nationalism, the BJP achieved a better victory with a clear majority. This time the situation is very different. There is no such wave across the country that would naturally benefit the BJP. Gujarat BJP does not have any special achievements of its own to make voters fall in love with the BJP. The way the BJP is progressing in the state due to the politics of power and unethical tactics, there is a certain resentment among the public, but the public has no better option.
Besides, the biggest challenge for the BJP, if any, is the BJP itself. Disgruntled senior leaders and loyal workers lack the enthusiasm to see the BJP win as it did in previous elections. Although union ministers are contesting the Rajkot and Porbandar seats, there is resentment among the workers because, according to the party strategy, Parshottam Rupala has been asked to contest from Rajkot despite being from Amreli and Mansukh Mandaviya from Porbandar despite being from Bhavnagar. It is clear that the presence of people at the leaders’ meetings is only formal. As a result, the aggressiveness to win elections, which is seen every time in the BJP, is not evident this time. In these circumstances, the target of winning all 26 seats with a margin of five lakhs per seat is considered very difficult and not possible too.
WHY IS THE CONGRESS HOPEFUL?
Political upheaval and unethical politics are not new to Gujarat. The Congress lost the Surat seat without an election, but it is noteworthy that the Congress has fielded relatively good candidates this time with a few exceptions. At the organizational level, the hard work of the workers is visible. After Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra, there is some hope among party workers and voters. The Congress manifesto is being discussed positively at almost all levels. Currently, the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party are contesting elections together under the umbrella of the I.N.D.I Alliance. In the 2022 Assembly elections, the Aam Aadmi Party captured 13% of the votes, most of which came from the Congress.
In these present circumstances, the Congress is less concerned about the division of votes. The Aam Aadmi Party has established a strong network in the state. Its leaders and workers are aggressive enough to take on the BJP, which could benefit the Congress.
In North Gujarat, it seems that seats like Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, and Patan; Anand in Central Gujarat; seats like Bharuch, Valsad in South Gujarat; and Amreli, Surendranagar, and Junagadh in Saurashtra are likely to face intense competition between the BJP and Congress, as strong candidates have been fielded by the Congress who are committed to the ideology and enjoy the trust of the voters.
THE KSHATRIYA MOVEMENT
If there is any challenger to the BJP in Gujarat, it is considered big news. For the past few days, the Kshatriya community of Gujarat has been agitated by Union Minister Parshottam Rupala’s controversial remarks against the community. Even after Rupala apologized for his remarks, the Kshatriya community continued to insist that the BJP replace Rupala with another candidate from Rajkot, but the BJP did not change its mind. In this situation, Kshatriyas are holding meetings in several cities and many districts of Gujarat and are devising a strategy to reply to the BJP through voting. In this movement, the women of the Kshatriya community have also become aggressive, which is a matter of concern for the BJP. Surendranagar, Rajkot, Bhavnagar, Jamnagar, Kutch, and Mehsana seats in Gujarat are dominated by Kshatriyas, so BJP leaders are active in finding a compromise solution before the polls in the coming days. Political analysts are keeping an eye on it to assess the situation. After all, the nation is eager to know how the picture of Gujarat will emerge in the new 18th Lok Sabha. Let’s wait until 4 June.
Sudhir S. Raval is Consulting Editor with ITV Network.