The deployment and timing of such systems could have been geared towards salvaging the image of the Communist Party.
On 4 February 2023, US President Joe Biden ordered the Pentagon to shoot down a massive Chinese airship over the US territorial waters, which, according to Lloyd Austin, US Secretary of Defence, “was being used by the PRC in an attempt to surveil strategic sites in the continental United States.” The US had detected the balloon on 28 January, but the shooting was delayed until the balloon was over water off the coast of South Carolina to avoid any collateral damage.
Mao Ning, the spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused the US of “overreaction” (反应过度) and “adamantly using force” (执意动用武力) on a civilian nature unmanned airship that entered the US airspace due to force majeure and didn’t pose any threat to any person or to US security. She said that the US should have handled the incident properly in a calm (冷静), professional (专业) manner, without resorting to force (非武力). Interestingly, in 2019, Xinlang Junshi (Sina military news) filed a story of J-10C launching a Thunderbolt 10 missile to shoot down a foreign super high-altitude reconnaissance balloon. The writer says, the whole operation was “very exciting.” Undoubtedly, the recent incident has further punctured the US-China relations, and Antony Blinken’s scheduled visit to China became the first casualty of this. Why should a “civilian” balloon cause such a furore in the US as well as in China? Or, is there more to it than meets the eye?
As the US-China rivalry intensifies, so does the strife between the Democrats and Republicans. Ann Wagner, a Missouri Republican, maintained that “President Biden’s decision to let the balloons travel the length and breadth of the United States of America was an unpardonable show of weakness on the world stage.” In response, Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said relations with China were strained and that the Biden administration is looking at other actions that can be taken.” Secretary Blinken cancelling his China visit could be regarded as part of this toughening approach. But more than this, a joint statement issued by Mike Gallagher and Raja Krishnamoorthi reveals the real American fear. The statement said, “…Indeed, this incident demonstrates that the CCP threat is not confined to distant shores—it is here at home and we must act to counter this threat.” The Chinese, of course, have regarded such statements as “neurotic” (抑郁症). During his State of the Union address, Joe Biden almost yelled, “Name me a world leader who’d change places with Xi Jinping. Name me one!”
China, on the other hand, also adopted a tough approach. Besides Mao Ning’s counterblast, China’s Defence Minister, Wei Fenghe refused the US request for a secure phone call with Lloyd Austin. The spokesperson of China’s Ministry of Defence had stated that “People’s Liberation Army reserves the right to destroy US installations if there arose a similar situation.” Enumerating the US violations of Chinese airspace, a report reminded the US that in January 2023 alone, the US dispatched a total of 64 large-scale reconnaissance planes into the South China Sea. At the same time, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng, in a demarche to the US embassy in China pointed out the serious damage (严重破坏) the incident had caused to Sino-US relations, and urged the US not to take further destructive actions (破坏动作).”
This is the fifth such balloon spotted over the US since 2017 and the first to be shot down. The sixth has been spotted over the airspace of Costa Rica. Have all these airships gone off course or are these part of China’s worldwide fleet as claimed by the US? While sharing information with its allies, the US maintained that China was operating similar balloons over North and South America, South East Asia, East Asia and Europe. The crux of the matter is—why should China use an unmanned airship to surveil US military installations on the eve of Blinken’s China visit?
There are all sorts of theories and arguments put forth by analysts. David Ignatius argued in the Washington Post that there was a possibility that “the Chinese military or hard-line elements within the leadership deliberately sought to sabotage the Blinken visit, the chief goal of which was to explore strategic stability measures and other guardrails that could limit the likelihood of unintended escalation over Taiwan or other issues of potential conflict.” The “sabotage” logic has been firmly denied by Dr Manoj Joshi on the NDTV debate citing PLA incursions into the Indian territory of Ladakh during the state visits of Premier Li Keqiang and President Xi Jinping to India in 2013 and 2014 respectively.
The use of stratospheric airships for surveillance and meteorological purposes lies in the fact that these move very slowly, can effectively monitor ground dynamics and send information to various trans-receivers at a much cheaper price. According to the Baidu Encyclopaedia, “the stratospheric information system or the High-Altitude Platform Stations (HAPS) generally refers to a quasi-stationary airship platform that carries a certain information payload, and cooperates with various ground communications and terminal equipment to form a system, abbreviated as SCS. The stratospheric platform is located between various communication satellites and ground relay communication stations. It is an uncultivated ‘virgin land’ above the earth. Its development is of great significance to the future communication development.” Essentially, besides airships and balloons, solar powered drones and high velocity vehicles could also be deployed in the stratosphere for civilian and military purposes. Therefore, for all good or bad intentions, the stratosphere is emerging as a new breeding ground for great power rivalry.
The deployment of such systems in the stratosphere could certainly provide China an edge over the US. China may be acquiring various weapon systems five times faster than the US, however, to match the US’ military might weapon to weapon remains a distant dream. The best possible scenario, therefore, is to deplete present US military assets by launching HAPS over the territorial space of the US and its allies; the probability of deploying these over Taiwan strait remains very high. In the words of a Chinese blogger, against a “worthless target” (最无价值目标) “the US has to muster an F-22 Raptor, Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker, US Navy P-8A Poseidon, and the Lockheed HC-130 search and rescue aircraft. An AIM-9X Sidewinder missile alone is worth $400,000, while an F-22 costs more than $36,000 for an hour’s sortie…, it is estimated that the cost of this operation is at least $500,000.” Xinlang Junshi puts the cost at 1 million US dollars.
Finally, the deployment and timing of such systems could also have been geared towards salvaging the image of the Communist Party that has taken a beating in the face of dwindling economic growth, real estate bubble burst, anti-establishment protests in the form of “White Paper Revolution” and the latest workers’ protests in Wuhan. It will also fan nationalistic fervour in China and spearhead the domestic contradiction away towards a foreign enemy. As for the US, besides garnering bipartisan support for stronger action against China on issues such as hi-tech rivalry, Taiwan, South China Sea, Xinjiang, Tibet etc., the balloon gate will add stratosphere rivalry to the long list of US-China protracted rivalry.
B.R. Deepak is Professor and Chair, Center of Chinese and Southeast Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.