‘All big powers that invade fiercely independent, freedom loving small nations are forced to retreat’

NEW DELHI: Amb. Maharajakrishna Rasgotra who completed his 98th birthday last week (he has seen more Indian and British Prime Ministers and American Presidents than any other Indian diplomat) still retains razor sharp memory, incisive analysis and deep understanding of complex international issues. And he isn’t shy of airing his frank opinion. Speaking at a panel discussion on “World Today”, organized by IAFA (Indo-American Friendship Association, New Delhi) at Gulmohar at India Habitat Centre on15 September, he stressed that a dispassionate look at the world since WWII will indicate that a big power that invades a small country whose people are fiercely independent; who love it, are proud of it and are prepared to die for it, eventually suffers defeat and is forced to retreat. He cited the example of the US intervention in Vietnam in 1965, a small country which was no match to America’s economic and military power. But it sent back American soldiers in body bags in whose memory stands the Vietnam Veteran War memorial in Washington with names of 57,939 soldiers. In the aftermath of the terrorist attack at the twin towers of the World Trade Centre in New York on 11 September 2001, the US invaded Afghanistan in October 2001, overthrew the Taliban government and imprisoned many of their leaders in Guantanamo bay. 20 years later, having spent nearly US$ 2 trillion and lost nearly 4,000 of its soldiers, in spite of the support of many European countries, it had to exit in humiliating conditions. Two other major powers suffered the same fate. China invaded Vietnam in February 1979 to give it a bloody nose, but in nine days of bitter fighting, got bruised and bloodied and had to retreat in March 1979. The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in December 1979 suffered more than 15,000 fatalities and eventually signed an accord in1988 and retreated from Afghanistan in defeat 1989. So, going by these historic examples, Amb. Rasgotra was convinced that Russia will have no option but to retreat from its fateful invasion of Ukraine. He felt that Russia has suffered serious losses in recent weeks in Ukraine which is armed to the teeth with advanced weapons by the US and its Western allies and its brave soldiers are fighting fearlessly and are determined to defeat the invading enemy. According to Rasgotra, the Ukraine crises should be over in the next six months or so.
He felt that India which enjoys close relations both with Russia and Ukraine and has not taken sides so far is well placed to mediate and facilitate a face saver to Russia to retreat. Rasgotra forecasts that notwithstanding the recent pronouncements of friendship without limits, an eventual clash between China and Russia particularly between the navies of the two countries in the next 25 years looks quite likely.
In Rasgotra’s views, China’s BRI has destroyed Pakistan’s and Sri Lanka’s economies and Bangladesh has escaped the same fate thanks to India’s assistance. He felt that while Neighbours First is a good concept, given the current situation in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal, it’s a nonstarter.
He applauded India’s foreign policy under PM Modi who has brought India closest to the US despite the fact that it had denied him a visa for 10 years and admired his ability to develop personal chemistry with American Presidents and other world leaders. He was full of praise for the current EAM Dr S. Jaishankar who was his protégé at one time. He particularly drew attention to Jaishankar’s plain speaking to his Chinese sounterpart stressing that the state of relations on the boundary will impinge on the overall relations between the two countries. Earlier, greeting him on his 98th birthday, IAFA’s founding President Amb. Surendra Kumar called Rasgotra the 8th wonder of the world who defies all constraints of age and remains intellectually so sharp and active. He called him a living institution who has inspired so many generations of Indian diplomats.