NEW DELHI: BJP’s continued domination, Scindia’s BJP debut, and electoral dynamics in 2024 Lok Sabha contest in Gwalior-Chambal region.
The Gwalior-Chambal region of Madhya Pradesh consists of four Lok Sabha seats: Gwalior, Bhind, Morena, and Guna, all of them belong to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). And in 2024, they will look to continue their long run in the region. Earlier in the 2019 election, the BJP had won all four seats in the region. State BJP chief Vishnu Datt Sharma told The Sunday Guardian that “the BJP will continue its long run in Gwalior-Chambal and win all the seats in the region with an even bigger margin than that of 2019.”
The politics of the region mainly revolves around the BJP. However, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has some ability to influence the results.
Guna
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, everyone’s eyes will be on the Gwalior-Chambal region because, for the first time on a BJP ticket, Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia is contesting the Lok Sabha elections in Guna. Although in the 2019 election he contested on the Congress ticket, he lost the election to the BJP’s K.P. Singh Yadav. After that, he switched to the BJP, which led to the fall of the Kamal Nath government in the state.
Guna is a political powerhouse renowned for its significant influence in Indian politics. Guna covers the entire Ashok Nagar district and parts of Shivpuri and Guna districts. Guna comprises eight assembly segments, including Shivpuri, Pichhore, Kolaras, Bamori, Guna, Ashoknagar, Chanderi, and Mungaoli. Seven out of eight assembly segments voted in favour of the BJP in 2019. However, in the 2023 assembly election, Congress managed to win two seats out of eight, and the remaining six seats were won by the BJP.
In the 2019 election, Guna had a voter turnout of 70.02%. BJP’s Krishna Pal Singh (Dr K. P. Yadav) won by a margin of 1,25,549 votes, securing 6,14,049 votes. Singh defeated Jyotiraditya Scindia of Congress, who got 4,88,500 votes. In 2024, Congress candidate is Rao Yadvendra Singh Yadav.
Gwalior
The demographic profile of the Gwalior-Chambal region, including its Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe populations, alongside the significant presence of Dalit, Thakur, and Brahmin communities, plays a pivotal role in the constituency’s electoral dynamics. Upper-caste voters are over 30%, and a majority of this vote is likely to go with the BJP. On the other hand, the Congress is critically dependent on Dalits, who account for around 20% of the votes in the seat. In addition to that, the party is also banking on Muslims, tribals, and smaller, backward communities like Rawats, who together account for close to 15% of the population.
Vishnu Datt Sharma said, “The voters of the Gwalior-Chambal region have decided to vote for Modi Ji and make him their PM for the third time.” He added that, under “Modi’s guarantee”, the BJP will sweep in MP and win all 29 seats, including Congress bastion, Chhindwara. Further taking a jibe at Congress, he said people won’t take Congress seriously; “we are not considering them. Our aim is to win every booth in the region, and for that, our workers are working very hard.”
The BJP has won the Gwalior Lok Sabha seat since 2007. This constituency covers the entire Gwalior district and part of Shivpuri district. Gwalior comprises eight Assembly segments, including Gwalior Rural, Gwalior East, Gwalior South, Dabra, Bhitarwar, Karera, Pohari, and Gwalior. Six out of eight Assemblies voted for the BJP in 2019, while two voted for Congress. However, in the 2023 Assembly election, Congress won four out of eight and the BJP won the remaining four seats. This time though the BJPis confident of winning this constituency again with a higher margin.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, Vivek Narayan Shejwalkar from the BJP won the seat with a margin of 146,842 votes. Shejwalkar polled 627,250 votes with a vote share of 52% and defeated Ashok Singh from INC, who got 480,408 votes (40.14%). However, both parties have changed their candidates. The BJP has fielded Bharat Singh Kushwaha, while Congress has nominated its former MLA, Praveen Pathak, to challenge the BJP’s stronghold.
Morena
Morena is a BJP fortress; the BJP won seven Lok Sabha elections back-to-back from Morena. Even in 2019, the BJP’s Narendra Singh Tomar won the seat by a margin of 113,341 votes. Tomar polled 541,689 votes with a vote share of 48% and defeated Congressman Ramniwas Rawat, who got 428,348 votes with a vote share of 37.62%.
Morena covers the entire Sheopur and Morena districts and comprises eight Vidhan Sabha seats, i.e., Sheopur, Vijaypur, Sabalgarh, Joura, Sumawali, Morena, Dimani, and Ambah.
Seven out of eight constituencies voted in favour of the BJP in the 2019 elections, while one went in favour of Congress. However, in the 2023 Assembly election, the BJP won three seats out of eight. On the other hand, Congress won the remaining five seats, but that may not be good enough for Congress to win the Morena Lok Sabha seat in 2024, as a strong wind is blowing in favour of the BJP here. This time, Congress has fielded the ex-BJP member and former MLA from Sumawali, Satyapal Singh Sikarwar, as their candidate.
Notably, Sikarwar was an old soldier for the BJP before getting expelled in 2020 for allegedly involving in anti-party activities, while the BJP has named Shivmangal SinghTomar to contest the poll.
Bhind
Bhind is also a part of the Gwalior-Chambal region, and like other constituencies of the region, the BJP has a stronghold in Bhind. It has never lost a Lok Sabha election in Bhind since 1989, establishing it as their bastion, but the BSP has also made its presence felt in the constituency. In the 2019 elections, BJP’s candidate Sandhya Ray won with a margin of 199,885 votes. Sandhya Ray polled 527,694 votes with a vote share of 55% and defeated Congress candidate Devashish, who got 327,809 votes with a vote share of 34.05%.
The constituency covers the entire Bhind and Datia districts. Bhind comprises eight Assembly segments, including Ater, Bhind, Lahar, Mehgaon, Gohad, Sewda, Bhander, and Datia. All Assembly segments of Bhind voted in favour of the BJP in the 2019 general election. However, in the 2023 Assembly election, the BJP managed to win only four seats, and Congress won the remaining four seats. This time also, the BJP fielded the sitting MP Sandhya Ray, while Congress has made the contest interesting by announcing Dalit candidate, Bhander MLA Phoolsingh Baraiya as its candidate.