‘There could be much downside to a BSP-BJP alliance if it happens in the near future’.
New Delhi
Political circles had been abuzz over channels of communication being opened between a BJP senior leader in Uttar Pradesh and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo Mayawati’s nephew Akash Anand. However, a source has indicated that Akash Anand has clearly stated within top political circles that “there is no possibility of pre-poll alliance with the BJP and moreover has committed no surety over a post-poll alliance either”.
Party insiders suggest that the BJP is going to take the Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha elections as a do-or-die challenge. Thus, the party is in a phase of weighing options, as it views the state as important in keeping its Lok Sabha seat count buoyant. The party also knows that its substantial number of seats comes from Uttar Pradesh and any damage to its numbers will impact the party’s national electoral prospects. In 2014, the saffron camp had won 71 seats out of the total 80 and subsequently in the 2019 general elections, the party won 9 seats less at 62. Later, the party had added a couple seats more through by-elections. Moreover, with the Lok Sabha elections expected to be held next year, the saffron camp has initiated its preparations and party insiders suggest that the party will work hard to at least retain its 2019 numbers.
A party insider said, “Uttar Pradesh is very important for the BJP. They can do any kind of breaking and fixing of any party in the state. And that too when they know that they are going to meet tough challenge in some Congress ruled states like Karnataka. They will eventually have a lesser count of seats. But the party wants to make sure that it does not slip below the majority mark. And for that, they will be activating its electoral machinery in full swing.”
A political analyst said, “If the BSP and BJP come together, it is going to be a nightmare for the Opposition alliance and they would be struggling to make any considerable mark on electoral grounds. Last time, BSP was with the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the tie-up was considered an elephantine alliance. It was expected that they would give a tough challenge to the BJP, but they were just able to win around 15 seats out of the total 80. In that also, the BSP was not able to have a substantial transfer of their votes towards SP and thus out of the 15, SP was only able to win 5. Had they roped in the Congress s well, they could have turned the table by winning bigger chunk of seats but that did not happen. Now the BJP knows that it has to at least retain its seat share in UP and anything less would bring down their number as they are staring at unprecedented alliances in Maharashtra and Bihar where they expect decrease in seats. So, the BJP will be aggressive in its strategy.”
However, a political analyst who is working with BJP said, “There could be much downside to the possible BSP-BJP alliance if it happens in the near future, as the traditional Muslim voters that the BSP commands will slip away from Mayawati. And there cannot be considerable vote transfer. The problem with that would be that Mayawati has been used by BJP to play out as a vote-cutter. She mostly divides the Muslim votes. There are several seats where the BSP’s vote percentage is greater than the SP’s loss margin. So, by bringing the BSP in NDA fold, there could be loss for the saffron camp and if they do that, there could be a strategy behind that. As they might have assessed changing dynamics of the electorate through their surveys and assessments. But in principle, the alliance will not give the BJP an edge that they might be looking for.”