The saffron party is preparing a strategy to keep its position strong in the ‘numbers game’ during next year’s Lok Sabha elections.
NEW DELHI: After the Karnataka assembly elections next month, the BJP is likely to take a big and “surprising” decision in terms of a change of guard in Maharashtra. In fact, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde fell short of BJP’s expectations. What is worrying BJP leadership is that despite the split in Shiv Sena, its voter base continues to be with the Uddhav Thackeray-led Sena.
Therefore, if the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) comprising Thackeray-led faction of Sena, NCP, and Congress remains intact, then it will pose a major challenge to the NDA in the Lok Sabha elections next year. Maharashtra accounts for 48 Lok Sabha MPs, which is the second-highest in the country with UP being the largest state in terms of Lok Sabha seats. The BJP and Shiv Sena had together won 41 seats in Maharashtra in the 2019 parliamentary polls. Shiv Sena alone had bagged 18 seats. After the assembly polls, Shiv Sena severed ties with BJP and joined hands with Congress and NCP to float MVA, which formed the government with Uddhav Thackeray as Chief Minister. But in June last year, the MVA government fell as a result of the exodus of nearly 50 Sena MLAs from the ruling alliance. The BJP was allegedly behind the government toppling game. Finally, the BJP supported rebel Sena leader Eknath Shinde, who became the CM. As a result, the NDA government came to power in Maharashtra. The BJP was hopeful that a huge chunk of voters would also come with the Shinde-led faction. But the entire political exercise seems to have boomeranged. The Uddhav-led Sena gained more strength. Moreover, the Congress-NCP ties have also grown stronger. The MVA unity has inspired the leaders of Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) to remain intact in Bihar. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is already making efforts to keep the opposition voters intact in all states for the 2024 LS polls.
Therefore, the two factors are causing concerns in the BJP camp. First, the Congress is far ahead of the ruling party in Karnataka elections as shown by several surveys. PM Narendra Modi’s magic seems to be of no help, as public anger against the Bommai government in Karnataka is extremely high. If Congress sweeps Karnataka polls, then it will give more power to the grand old party in poll-bound Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan. Second, these poll results will have their bearing on the 2024 Lok Sabha elections next year. Moreover, the outcome will boost the morale of the UPA in Bihar and Maharashtra. BJP strategists are not that worried about Bihar, thinking that Nitish Kumar is following in the footsteps of Lalu Yadav, as is evident from the caste census, release of mafia Anand Mohan Singh, etc. BJP believes that these issues will cost Nitish dearly. The BJP believes that Nitish will weaken his position by being involved in caste politics. His government will also be questioned over the deteriorating law and order situation. The saffron party will try to capitalise on these two issues. So, the BJP’s only problem is Maharashtra, where the unity of Uddhav and NCP will be ‘challenging’ for it. With this in view, the BJP strategists want either NCP or Uddhav-led Sena to break away from MVA and join NDA. Over the past few days, political activities featuring meetings and statements of NCP leader Sharad Pawar, his daughter Supriya Sule, and his nephew Ajit Pawar have triggered one speculation or the other. These activities intensified only after Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s visit to Maharashtra. The much-awaited verdict of the Supreme Court might land Shinde in trouble. He has challenged the decision of suspension of 16 MLAs in the apex court. Shinde may lose membership in the assembly if the verdict does not favour him.
BJP may go to any extent to strengthen its position in Maharashtra in view of the Lok Sabha polls. The BJP may agree to give the CM post to either Ajit Pawar or Supriya Sule on the condition that the NCP must join the NDA for the Lok Sabha elections. Another condition will be that the BJP’s decision on seat sharing for the Lok Sabha elections should be final and acceptable to NCP. Observers are of the view that BJP’s “offer” will be an opportunity for Sharad Pawar to see his daughter as CM of Maharashtra. If NCP joins NDA in the future, then the BJP’s position will be quite strong in Maharashtra. In this case, the Uddhav-Congress alliance will be ineffective. Sources say that BJP is also keen to have Uddhav back in the NDA fold. The saffron party will readily agree to give the CM post to Uddhav. However, apart from Karnataka poll results, all eyes will also be on the political developments in Maharashtra.