NEW DELHI: It’s clear that the main divide is between Jats and other groups in the state.
The Assembly election in Haryana will take place on 1 October. The result of this election will be a key indicator for the future of national politics. The RSS is fully active in Haryana in helping the BJP. Prime Minister Narendra Modi too is directly involved, holding discussions with key leaders from the states. Arun Kumar is representing the RSS, while Organization General Secretary, B.L. Santhosh is leading the overall strategy. Union Home Minister Amit Shah, along with Dharmendra Pradhan, is managing the election responsibilities, and national general secretary in-charge, Satish Poonia is making frequent visits to the state.
Former Haryana Chief Minister and Union Minister Manohar Lal Khattar too is playing a prominent role on the front lines. The BJP understands the critical importance of Haryana, especially given its proximity to the national capital. This election marks the first direct contest between the BJP and Congress in a Hindi belt state.
As for the Congress, it has seldom managed to defeat the BJP in a direct contest. In the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won decisively against the Congress in states where they faced off directly. But in Haryana it was a 50:50 split between the two. In the Assembly election, the constituent parties of the Congress-led I.N.D.I Alliance, namely the Aam Aadmi Party and the Samajwadi Party, are preparing to run separately from Congress. While these parties may indirectly assist Congress by trying to corner the non-Jat votes, the JJP and INLD that have allied with the BSP, will focus on Jat and Dalit voters.
Analysing the caste dynamics in Haryana politics, it’s clear that the main divide is between Jats and other groups. The BJP is likely to use this strategy, but this time it is aiming to attract Jat voters as well. To achieve this, the state government has made significant efforts to appeal to farmers, particularly those from the Jat community, by waiving their loans and improving minimum support prices. Additionally, the government has created special programs for farmers and assigned Jat leader Satish Poonia with key responsibilities. Ranjit Chautala, the son of prominent Jat leader Devi Lal, and Kiran Chaudhary, daughter-in-law of another Jat leader, Bansi Lal, have both joined the BJP and are tasked with mobilizing votes for the party.
In response to Congress’ emphasis on Backward Classes, the BJP has appointed OBC leader Nayab Singh Saini as the face and leader for the state. Arun Kumar has conducted multiple meetings on behalf of the Sangh, meticulously analysing each constituency. Fewer tickets will be issued, with a particular focus on weaker seats. This time, prominent leaders from the Sangh and the party will be actively involved in each constituency. The previous Lok Sabha defeat in some seats was partly due to a lack of leadership, as many top leaders were contesting. For the Assembly election, the party’s attention will be fully on Haryana.
Although election is also scheduled in Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP will concentrate on the Jammu division there. The unexpected announcement of Haryana’s election by the Election Commission on Friday surprised many, as it was anticipated that election in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Jharkhand would be held together. This decision appears to be a strategic move, with experts suggesting that the BJP could benefit from holding Haryana’s elections earlier, as it is challenging to oppose a united BJP.