In the 2019 alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena, the BJP clinched victory in 23 out of 25 contested seats, while the Sena secured 18 out of 23.
Of total 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra, the Bhartiya Janta Party is planning to contest for around 30 seats while leaving the rest 18 for the Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP.
According to sources, both the Shinde faction and the Ajit Pawar faction will retain their seats, which they won in the 2019 elections, and most of the candidates will be retained.
However, most of the sitting MPs’ of Shinde and Pawar faction faces anti-incumbency, and the BJP may ask some of them to contest on the BJP’s symbol and PM Modi’s face, which can further reduce the anti-incumbency.
Further, the BJP is eyeing four out of six Lok Sabha seats in Mumbai, leaving two for the Shinde group. However, the Shinde faction demands an equal distribution of three seats each in Mumbai. In the 2019 alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena, the BJP clinched victory in 23 out of 25 contested seats, while the Sena secured 18 out of 23.
Now, BJP strategists propose a larger candidate presence for the alliance to maintain or surpass its 2019 success, citing shifts in the political landscape post-assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh. This move, however, raises concerns among alliance partners, with Shinde faction MP Chhagan Bhujbal insisting on retaining the 22-seat share from the previous election.
Things were smooth for the NDA before the split between Shiv Sena and the NCP. The NDA enjoyed 51.3% of the votes in 2019 elections. However, after June 2022, the Shiv Sena parted ways with the NDA and formed an MVA with the NCP and Congress, which combined for around 55.6% of votes.
The MVA was short-lived, as Shiv Sena’s Eknath Shinde orchestrated the downfall of the MVA, emerging as the Chief Minister alongside the BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis as the deputy chief minister. In June–July 2023, the NCP, led by Sharad Pawar, underwent a split, resulting in his nephew Ajit Pawar assuming the role of Deputy Chief Minister.
Following the split within Shiv Sena, the Shinde-led faction holds sway with 13 MPs, while the Shiv Sena (UBT) faction has five. Conversely, the Sharad Pawar-Supriya Sule-led main faction commands three, with Ajit Pawar’s faction holding one. The BJP is relying on the face of Modi and his progressive schemes a lot in Maharashtra, as it has the second-highest number of seats (48) after Uttar Pradesh. Despite the political instability, which is now stable, the BJP has managed efficiently in the state.
Maha Vikas Aghadi, on the other hand, has finalised the seat sharing and is waiting for the official announcement. Thursday’s MVA gathering unfolded with unexpected twists. MVA leaders extended an invitation to Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi (VBA) president Prakash Ambedkar, urging his presence at the meeting. Ambedkar, however, declined, asserting that the state Congress president, Nana Patole, lacked the authority to invite him.
In response, he stated his willingness to attend with an invitation signed by Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, Uddhav Thackeray, and Sharad Pawar. Despite the initial refusal, Ambedkar engaged in discussions with MVA leaders over the phone and agreed to participate in the upcoming meeting on January 30. Inside sources reveal that the MVA proposed two seats for Ambedkar, with Raju Shetti also joining the alliance and contesting for one seat.
According to sources, all is well in MVA, and there was a discussion regarding the exchange of a few seats where the party contested or won based on the winning probability, but there are only one or two seats. The Shiv Sena (UBT) will get the highest number of seats, followed by Congress and the NCP. It is expected that a final announcement may come on January 30 after the meeting of MVA parties.
A source said that agreement has been reached on all seats, leaving eight or ten seats where a final call has to be made. After the split between Shiv Sena and the NCP, it is expected that they may get some sentimental votes, but the sentiments may not work against PM Modi’s face and the development world of the central government.