Even before the first vote has been cast in the Maharashtra assembly elections, politicians from the two primary alliances—the Congress-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and the BJP-led Maha Yuti—are already exercising their claims over the Chief Minister’s post.
The MVA has announced candidates for 250 seats as of Sunday night, with just 48 hours remaining until the last day for nominations. In contrast, the Maha Yuti has declared 260 candidates for the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly. While the seat-sharing process for the MVA was more challenging than anticipated, it proved to be a relatively straightforward affair for the BJP.”
Of the three parties that comprise the MVA—Congress, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray), and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)—former CM Uddhav Thackeray’s supporters believe it is a foregone conclusion that he will be appointed CM if the MVA comes to power.
Perhaps, to fructify this belief, the Shiv Sena has managed to field its candidates even from seats where ideally the Congress was in a better position to win.
This, sources aware of the matter say, happened because of the ‘rigidity’ that Thackeray’s messengers showed during the seat-sharing meeting, with one BJP leader who maintains close links to the Shiv Sena stating that the Shiv Sena took the approach of ‘my way or the highway’ during the seat sharing talks.
On the other hand, Congress state leaders have assured their supporters that the CM would be from the Congress party—supporters of senior leaders Prithviraj Chavan, Nana Patole, Balasaheb Thorat, and Vijay Namdevrao Wadettiwar earnestly believe that it is their leader who will be CM and not Thackeray.
Amidst all this, the NCP has currently decided not to participate in this premature CM race, after initially floating the name of Supriya Sule, member of Parliament and Sharad Pawar’s daughter.
In the opposite Maha Yuti side, while CM Eknath Shinde of the breakaway Shiv Sena faction has managed to create a strong identity for himself among the voters and cadre, and hence expects to continue as CM if the alliance regains power, this optimism of Shinde and his supporters is however, not shared in BJP circles.
The understanding among the BJP cadre and most of the top state leadership is that Devendra Fadnavis will be made CM. Fadnavis is contesting from the Nagpur South-West seat.
However, those who don’t identify with this idea of Fadnavis as the CM say that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah will choose a ‘new’ leader to lead the alliance if it comes to power, as happened in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh.
Members of both alliances, however, agree that the personal profile and perception of the respective candidates will play an important role in their win and loss in this election, especially for those who broke away from the NCP and Shiv Sena to join hands with the BJP and Congress led alliances , as seeking votes in the name of ‘political ideology’ is now not gaining much traction on the ground among the voters.
A senior Bombay based BJP member stated that the breaking away of two major political parties—the Shiv Sena and the NCP—and the subsequent collaboration of their leaders with the BJP, created a negative perception for the politicians , which was evident in the below-par results that the National Democratic Alliance achieved in Maharashtra, winning only 17 of the total 48 Lok Sabha seats. However, he believes that voters, after showing their anger against these leaders during the general elections , are now returning to the Maha Yuti fold and will vote for the BJP-led alliance.
The premature eagerness displayed by seasoned leaders to participate in the Chief Ministerial race, while not uncommon during election seasons, has seldom yielded the desired results for those involved. Recent examples include Congress leader Bhupinder Hooda in the Haryana elections, several top BJP leaders during the 2015 Bihar elections, Congress leader Kamal Nath in the 2023 Madhya Pradesh polls, and BJP leader Vikram Verma in the 1998 Madhya Pradesh elections. Each of these leaders learned this lesson the hard way, as their early aspirations did not translate into victory.