Rajasthan Chief Minister’s ‘political dexterity’ keeps the grand old party’s hopes alive for its third seat.
New Delhi: Will Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, who is also known as “Chanakya of politics”, be able to help Congress bag the “third seat” which is locked in a close contest in Rajasthan during the upcoming Rajya Sabha polls?
Observers believe that by virtue of his ‘political magic and skill’ CM Ashok Gehlot will be able to give Congress good news at the end of the day. Definitely, Gehlot’s stature will grow if Congress is able to win its third seat as well. It will be seen as a big gift to the Gandhi family by him. Congress is sure to win two of the four seats which Rajasthan legislators will be voting for. One will be won by the BJP, given its strength. But the real fight is for the remaining one seat, with both the parties having surplus votes. So, this is going to be a challenging task for Gehlot. In fact, CM Gehlot has been facing several challenges during his over three years rule in Rajasthan. He overcame all of them as well. But this time, the BJP has posed ‘the Rajya Sabha challenge’ to the Chief Minister.
This additional seat is a challenge for the BJP as well. What is remarkable is that the Rajya Sabha elections have triggered a change of political equations in Rajasthan. On the one hand, Congress is now united under Gehlot’s leadership, while on the other, former CM and senior BJP leader Vasundhara Raje is on the front-foot, giving a message of unity. In a surprise move, Raje congratulated former minister and BJP nominee for Rajya Sabha Ghanshyam Tiwari, who happens to be her adversary. The former CM Raje, in fact, sought to send out a message that there is no tussle or fighting in the party. However, the talk about BJP’s unity is being taken with a pinch of salt. But as of now, the BJP’s focus is on ensuring Ghanshyam Tiwari’s win, and also on how to clear roads for the independent candidate Subhash Chandra, whose candidature has added a twist to the plot. The fate of the candidates will be decided after the voting on 10 June.
As per the numbers game, the ruling Congress, with 108 MLAs in the assembly, is set to win two of the four seats which are vacant; the BJP is set to win one. The Congress will then have 26 surplus votes, but 15 short of the required 41 to win the third seat. The BJP, which has 71 MLAs, will be left with 30 surplus votes after securing its seat.
Apart from its 108 MLAs, Congress has the support of 13 independents, two legislators of Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP), two of CPI(M) and one MLA of RLD. RLD MLAs Subhash Garg is a minister in Rajasthan. This is how Congress tally stands at 126, which is sufficient to bring it three seats. Two BTP MLAs are said to be unhappy with the government, but the efforts are going on to placate them.
A candidate requires a minimum 41 votes to win in Rajasthan. Going by this calculation, the Congress has the necessary 123 votes to bag three seats. On the basis of this arithmetic, the Congress fielded Mukul Wasnik, Randeep Singh Surjewala and Pramod Tiwari. In case of any cross-voting, Pramod Tiwari’s seat will be in trouble. However, the Congress is confident that Gehlot will be able to keep all the legislators together and intact. Some of them are said to be displeased with the government, but they have limited political options.
BJP has 71 legislators. Moreover, Hanuman Beniwal’s RLP’s three MLAs are also there. So, the BJP’s candidate Ghanshyam Tiwari will sail through easily with 41 votes. Beniwal’s RLP, which had severed ties with NDA during farmers’ movement, is now said to be with BJP. With this, Subhash Chandra has 30 surplus votes of BJP and three of RLP, which makes it 33. He requires only eight votes other than this. Chandra claims to have support of eight MLAs. However, it will be known only when voting takes place. But BJP’s wishes are unlikely to be fulfilled for this seat, given the fact that most of the independent MLAs are said to be staunch supporters of Gehlot. A couple of them may be looking for some opportunity in AAP after its victory in Punjab. But they are unlikely to go against Congress candidates. BJP was also pinning its hopes on Sachin Pilot and his supporters who had revolted against the Rajasthan government two years ago. One time rebel, Pilot is now openly supporting Congress candidates. All is appearing well in the BJP camp as well. Raje is signalling that all MLAs are united. Congress may be pinning hopes on Raje’s loyalist MLAs but they are also unlikely to go against party candidates. None of them are likely to do a disappearing act. Two years ago, some of BJP legislators were absent during the no-trust motion against the Gehlot government in the Assembly. In a setback to BJP then, the government had proved majority. After this, faction fighting had intensified in BJP. Raje started organizing her separate programmes, distancing herself from events held by Rajasthan BJP chief Satish Puniya. But after BJP’s big win in four states, the situation changed. The Raje camp is silent and is not making any demands from the high command. The Rajya Sabha polls will show whether the BJP is really united or not. Prestige of both the Congress and the BJP are at stake in these polls.