Congress governs only one of ten Hindi heartland states—Himachal Pradesh—while the BJP holds majority governments in at least six, reflecting Congress’s waning influence.
New Delhi: The wounds from Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh have reopened for Congress after its unexpected loss in the Haryana assembly elections. Party insiders suggest that Congress’s internal survey agencies failed to reflect ground realities, leading to flawed strategies and an inability to build momentum.
Senior Congress leaders indicate that in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Haryana, the party believed it was poised to form governments even before election results were declared. In Madhya Pradesh, former Chief Minister Kamal Nath controlled both the campaign and internal operations but misjudged the outcome. Similarly, in Chhattisgarh, Bhupesh Baghel, the sitting chief minister, assumed victory and assured the party’s high command of a clear majority. However, the Congress was unable to retain its government. In Haryana, overconfidence led to a repeat of these missteps.
Of the ten Hindi heartland states—Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Haryana, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar—Congress currently governs only one: Himachal Pradesh. In contrast, the BJP runs majority governments in at least six of these states, reflecting Congress’s dwindling influence in the region.
A political analyst observed, “Congress tends to relax when early surveys predict success, leading to complacency or internal conflicts. Meanwhile, the BJP adjusts quickly, taking corrective measures on a war footing, thanks to strong leadership under Narendra Modi.” This pattern has eroded Rahul Gandhi’s rising public perception, particularly after the Congress’s earlier success in the Lok Sabha elections, raising questions about his long-term leadership.
While Congress performed well in southern India, it struggled to secure victories in the Hindi-speaking belt. Its only northern foothold, Himachal Pradesh, remains precarious. Some analysts attribute the party’s challenges to the lack of northern leaders in key positions, with Mallikarjun Kharge, KC Venugopal, and Jairam Ramesh—each from the south—dominating the top ranks. The absence of leaders with a deep understanding of northern politics is seen as a significant hindrance to the party’s revival.
Congress’s difficulties reflect deeper organizational and strategic flaws, including internal conflicts and flawed ticket distribution. In Haryana, for example, infighting between Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Kumari Selja weakened the campaign, mirroring internal disputes in Chhattisgarh between Bhupesh Baghel and TS Singh Deo.
The party’s inability to transition smoothly from veteran leaders to younger talent also continues to undermine its electoral prospects, contributing to repeated losses across multiple states.