Political Tours’ founder Nicholas Wood is in conversation with Nicholas Blanford, Lebanon expert about the recent protests taking place in Lebanon:
The demonstrations are a response to Lebanon’s famed political inertia and corruption (remember the piles of rubbish that provoked similar protests several years back). But this time Nicholas Wood says it is different. The protests are nationwide and reach across sectarian divides, and it’s left the country’s most powerful player Hezbollah worried.
NW: How did the protests start?
NB: The protests erupted spontaneously over a six dollar surcharge on all WhatsApp users, a one-off charge designed to plug the gaping hole in the country’s deficit. It effectively became the straw that broke the camel’s back. Broadly speaking, these protests are against an enormous legacy of corruption and a failure to govern, as these have plagued the country for years.
Lebanon was already heading towards a financial crisis, but now there is a fear of a financial collapse. Western donor countries had arranged for an 11Billion dollar aid package of loans and grants which was designed to give a boost to the economy. But perhaps, the government was very slow to adopt the reforms contingent for the release of the money.
Consequently there has been a rush on dollars; the diaspora are sending fewer dollars home, and there has been a run on the dollar at the banks. (Lebanon has a dual currency system with both dollars and Lebanese pounds used in the country). The banks are not able to give funds in dollars anymore and this has caused a lot of alarm.
There is now talk of a one-off surcharge on the banks in order to help plug the government deficit – either way there is a looming fear of financial collapse.
The Lebanese have had enough and see all of his as a consequence of the corrupt rule of the countries sectarian elites, many of who rose to power during the civil war and have been in place ever since.
(NW adds, Lebanon’s sectarian political system is reinforced by its constitution which allots key positions to particular positions; the President must be a Christian, the Speaker of the parliament must be Shia, the Prime Minister must be a Sunni Muslim – all of this has served to reinforce politics along sectarian lines and where issue based politics is effectively rule out. The parties are effectively patronage systems for each religious group. Citizens are also listed on the census according to their faith, and this is affiliation is entrenched in law and passed down by the paternal line)
NW: What’s different this time?
NB: The significant thing about these protests is they are completely non-sectarian. There are no party political flags being waved in downtown Beirut where the protestors are gathering, just the Lebanese flag.
The second interesting thing is that these protests are widespread. In past, demonstrations have been very much focused on Beirut. But here we have huge protest in Tripoli in the north, Christian areas, Sidon in the south, even places of Hezbollah support, such as Tyre and some other towns south Lebanon, we have seen Shia come out really for the first time and oppose the Shia duopoly of Hezbollah and the Amal movement. The Amal movement is perceived as a highly corrupt institution. The parliamentary speaker, Nabi Beri, the world’s longest serving parliamentary speaker having been there for thirty years is also the head of Amal and is seen as one of the most figures of corruption in the country.
NW: Hezbollah is worried?
NB: Perhaps the most striking element has been the outpouring of opposition from the Shia community towards Hezbollah. There has been grumbling among the ranks for some time but this has been kept behind closed doors.
People are scared of them as it is the most powerful institution in the country, it dominates the government that has just resigned. But now people coming out and criticising the party leadership along with the geographic spread make this a very unique uprising, the largest uprising since 2005. And the process in 2005 led to the Syrian army pulling out of Lebanon.
NW: There are echoes of these protests in Iraq and Egypt, so it is obviously an amazing time, but Lebanon is different in that its constitution reinforces this sectarian divide. Is there any sense that this is being challenged, or is this just about corrupt government and good governance, because those two things (sectarian politics and good governance ) are contradictory?
NB: Yes they are asking for good governance and demanding that all the money, that has been stolen from the people be returned to them— a somewhat quixotic demand— but they are also demanding an end to the sectarian system. This demand is a fundamental shift or change in how the country is run.
The protestors are demanding more of a meritocracy rather than sharing of political positions and posts by sectarian allotment. And of course, the people who are going to suffer from this are the country’s rulers who by and large are the sectarian leaders, some of whom are former war lords from the civil war and they have every interest in maintain the status quo. But it has to be said that the leadership in the country has definitely been given a jolt by what has happened.
You have had near paralysis for nearly two weeks. The banks haven’t opened, schools haven’t opened, a lot of the roads haven’t opened because of the protests.
The army so far has acted responsibly. They declined initial orders to suppress the protests and they are to a degree protecting the protests, but we have to see where all this goes.
NW: Demands for technocrat government
NB: So the protest movement wants to see a technocrat government being formed. The president is going to have to discuss this with all the Lebanese MPs, the 120 that make up the parliament, who they nominate for the new premiership.
Saad Hariri, who was unable to get anything through cabinet and had just resigned, could come back and form a government. The protestors want technocrats who can come together – a cabinet that is some 14 seats, around half the current size and their job would be simply to get on with improving the economy, dealing with the electricity crisis and so on.
But there is a lot of vested interest towards not having a technocrat government because it means of course they are going to be out of power. So really there’s a big question of how this is going to proceed.
There are lots of options and ways this could go.
NW: At what point does this get too much for the likes of Hezbollah?
NB: Hezbollah has warned that the resignation of the government could lead to chaos and possibly an outbreak of civil war. Hezbollah’s playbook is to say this is all instigated by outside powers that want to weaken Hezbollah. That’s not the case. In fact I have just come from a very long meeting with the British Embassy and they are they are mulling ways to approach all this, as are the Americans. There is definitely awareness internationally that if they weigh in too heavily on to the side of the protest movement that this could be could be perceived that the protest movement has been hijacked by a foreign intention, those intentions would be to weaken Hezbollah so therefore playing into Hezbollah’s play book. In general the aspirations of the protest movement are supported by the west, but they seem to be hesitant into getting too involved.
So Hezbollah’s priority is to preserve their military status quo. If they don’t perceive the protests as being an anti-Hezbollah or anti-Shia issue which it isn’t, and which the protestors are trying very hard not to make it, then I think they could learn to live with whatever comes of this (a technocratic government).
They are in a very weak position basically.
NW: Why is that?
NB: Hezbollah has always been about building a society of resistance so that everybody is a member of that resistance, whether you are a Hezbollah fighter or just waiving a flag. You grow up in this environment of watching Hezbollah TV, seeing posters of the martyrs on the village wars. So they try to make this a holistic concept, but moment the Shia begin to break away and that feel that instead of being a saviors of that community it is becoming a burden then that whole society of resistance structure begins to break down. And then Hezbollah is greatly weakened because at the end of the day it doesn’t matter how much money or weapons the Iranians give Hezbollah, their power derives from the support of the community, and if the support of the community begins to dwindle, Hezbollah’s power begins to dwindle and that is the prospect they are facing right now and that is the prospect that is keeping Nasrullah and his lieutenants awake at night.
NW: Constitutional reform is surely a pipe dream at the moment?
NB: Well in a way I think it is, but the protest movement has shaken things up and it depends how this is going to go. There may be fatigue and the bourgeoisie elements giving up and wanting to go and get on with their lives. But the government and the ruling elite have been served notice that even if the protest movement dies away, if there is a feeling that the government is going back to its old way of doing nothing, nothing happening in the economy and corruption is still high, these folks can always take to the streets again and you know gridlock the country as they have done in the past two weeks.
Nicholas Blanford is leading the Political Tour to Lebanon from 28 March – 5 April 2020. More details on www.politicaltours.com