NEW DELHI: SP has retained the Karhal seat in the last four elections, but BJP has been steadily gaining traction in the area since the 2017 Assembly elections, and is confident of winning the seat.
The Karhal Assembly seat in Mainpuri, Uttar Pradesh, has become a focal point of political attention due to its significant political history. Following former UP Chief Minister and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav’s decision to vacate the seat to contest the Lok Sabha elections, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has set its sights on capturing this Samajwadi Party (SP) stronghold. SP has consistently held the Karhal seat for the past four elections, while BJP has been slowly gaining ground in the region since the 2017 Assembly elections. BJP is confident that “Modi Ki Guarantee” proposition and the “Yogi model” will help them secure a victory.
As the by-elections for 10 Assembly seats, including Karhal, approach—coinciding with the Maharashtra and Jharkhand Assembly elections—all political parties have intensified their campaigns to win over voters. Uttar Pradesh Deputy Chief Minister Brajesh Pathak has made multiple visits to Karhal, signalling BJP’s strong commitment to winning the seat.
Having lost the Faizabad Parliamentary Constituency to SP, the BJP is determined not to lose this by-election and is eager to turn the tables by winning the Karhal seat, an SP bastion. BJP has attached great significance to this by-election, with three ministers, Brijesh Pathak, being assigned the responsibility of securing victory in Karhal. Meanwhile, SP remains confident of repeating its success from the Lok Sabha elections, where it outperformed BJP by winning 37 out of 80 seats.
This constituency, located close to the town of Saifai, has been associated with the late Mulayam Singh Yadav, making it a crucial area for SP. The Yadav family has maintained a strong connection with the local populace, enabling SP to secure continuous victories in Karhal for the last four elections. In 2022, Akhilesh Yadav chose Karhal to contest his first Assembly election, where he decisively defeated then Union Minister S.P. Singh Baghel by a margin of 66,000 votes. Given this background, the path to victory for BJP in this Yadav-dominated seat is far from easy. To bolster their chances, BJP has deployed Brajesh Pathak, Tourism Minister Jaiveer Singh, Higher Education Minister Yogendra Upadhyaya, and Minister of State Ajit Singh Pal to oversee the campaign and create a favourable environment for the upcoming by-elections.
According to sources within SP, Tej Pratap Yadav, nephew of Akhilesh Yadav, is likely to be the party’s candidate for the Karhal Assembly seat. Tej Pratap Yadav was initially considered for the Lok Sabha ticket from Kannauj, but party workers preferred Akhilesh to contest from there. Another strong contender is Alok Kumar Shakya, a well-known Samajwadi leader in the Mainpuri constituency and a former member of the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly. Shakya may be selected as the candidate to garner support from the Shakya community, the second most influential group in Karhal after the Yadavs.I.P. Singh, the national spokesperson for SP, said that SP is fully confident of winning the Karhal seat, emphasising that it is one of the constituencies where the party’s influence is strongly felt.
He expressed certainty not only about securing Karhal but also about winning other seats in the by-elections. Singh highlighted that Dimple Yadav, MP from Mainpuri, has been diligently working for her constituency, and the people of Karhal recognise this, intending to strengthen her position by delivering a victory in the by-polls.
Political analyst Aditya Rathi explained that the results of the by-elections for the 10 Assembly seats—vacated due to the success of sitting MLAs in the Lok Sabha elections—will be crucial in shaping the political landscape of the state.
These outcomes could set the stage for the 2027 Assembly elections. If the NDA manages to retain its seats from 2022 and makes inroads into strongholds of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc, it would significantly uplift BJP morale. However, a loss could lead to internal unrest within the BJP. On the other hand, if I.N.D.I.A. bloc emerges victorious, it would gain momentum in its effort to challenge the BJP-led NDA in 2027.