It’s a fight to the finish in Karnataka elections

BENGALURU: If the 2018 Karnataka Assembly elections were a nail biter what with BJP at 104, Congress at 80, JDS at 37, with no party having a simple majority of 113, here are the latest round of election estimates by state intelligence: Congress at 109, BJP at 83 and JDS at 29. The nataka (drama) in Karnataka has just started.
Ever since the 2004 polls when the then Chief Minister S.M. Krishna called in early polls that threw up a fractured mandate in the state, the political potboiler here has got only more pacey, racy and juicy with all possible twists and turns—a rollercoaster ride that has catapulted many to power, thrown power off balance, with some making political fortunes.
H.D. Kumaraswamy, B.S. Yediyurappa, and Siddaramaiah are the offspring of that political turmoil that has now stretched beyond a decade and a half, although some like Dharam Singh, D.V. Sadananda Gowda, Jagadish Shettar, and Basavaraj Bommai got the top job, call it a kiss of lady luck or destiny.
Cut to 2023. It seems like the electorate of Karnataka is finding it difficult to make up their mind. Highly placed sources in the government revealed to The Sunday Guardian that a third-party survey commissioned by the intelligence to objectively find out the political weather has indicated a fractured mandate.
“We had outsourced a prepoll survey to get real-time data on a weekly basis to the agency by name Political Laboratory and the last survey ending 4 May indicates that none of the three parties has the majority. With plus or minus three seats, the Congress is at a tally of 109, up by 29 seats, BJP is expected to get 83, down by 23 seats, and Janata Dal(S) is at 29 seats, which means a loss of 8 seats. Two Independents will also make the cut this time and it is a nil for AAP, NCP, and other non-entities. The report also says the Congress has 90% chances of forming the government,” sources in the state intelligence told this newspaper.
While sources said “40% corruption” charges, governance issues, scams, lack of people connect, dearth of leadership, anger amongst the Lingayat, and of course anti-incumbency had put BJP on the back foot, the damage was contained by the saffron party to a large extent by making Prime Minister Narendra Modi the face of the elections; add to that the Congress party shooting itself in the foot by declaring a ban on Bajrang Dal if they come to power.
Top sources in the BJP told this paper that the party was clear and strong on making a new template, juxtaposing the national narrative at the state level, and this was very clear when the party announced the tickets and retired some very senior leaders: “While some rebelled, many fell in line making way for the Modi juggernaut to roll across the length and breadth of the state. This time the BJP story started with Modi and how it ends is also entirely upon him. The stakes are really high and the PM has taken it upon himself to pull these elections by leveraging the charisma and trust he has earned over the last nine years. He has gambled by putting on the table his credibility to square off the ill effects and trust deficit the local unit attracted for the last three and a half years.”
The Congress, on the other hand, is riding high on the five guarantee schemes: 10 kg rice, Rs 2,000 for household women, Rs 3,000 for unemployed youth, 200 units of free power, free bus services to women apart from taking advantage of the lack of local leadership, anti-incumbency, the resourcefulness of KPCC president D.K. Shivakumar and the OBC popularity of Siddaramaiah. The party also has a strong leadership across the state—Ramalinga Reddy and K.J. George in Bengaluru, the M.B. Patil-Shamanur Shivashakrappa-M.B. Patil Lingayat force—and a hold on minority and traditional votes.
But there are a lot of ifs and buts in these elections. With none of them looking to shore up their numbers to cross the magic figure of 113, the Game of Thrones is all set to begin on 13 May.
The Congress finds itself in the same place as BJP last time around in 2018, and with all the goodwill lost with JDS, it is highly unlikely that the regional party will reciprocate in the same currency.
The BJP and JDS might come together and edge out the Congress, but for that to happen, it will require a lot of political manoeuvring. JDS will have to ditch its ideology and dump its allies who nurture huge ambitions at the national level with an eye on the 2024 general elections. Or will the BJP press on the services of their Trojan horses in the Congress or JDS to pull off a miracle? Remember the Ajit Pawar episode in Maharashtra or the recent Eknath Shinde shocker from the same state? Anything is a possibility and it is going to be no less than a cliff-hanger and a photo finish.