The business of poll survey firms is on the rise, but this is posing challenges for grassroots politicians and workers.
NEW DELHI
In recent years, foreign powers have spent billions of rupees on survey companies that assess the likely outcomes of Indian elections, while these companies’ assessments often lead top leaders of Congress, BJP, or regional parties to make decisions about the right and wrong candidates in various electoral areas. Local leaders who have been working on the ground for decades and are connected to the public become extremely agitated when such companies’ assessments begin to influence election results. In these days, the situation has left Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and his senior close aides deeply distressed. When it comes to the selection of candidates for the legislative Assembly elections, the South Indian survey report was given more preference by Rahul Gandhi and his close aides, The report pushes for cutting tickets for Congress’ long-standing leaders in various electoral areas, according to those in the know. Even former Madhya Pradesh Congress leaders Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh are not ready to accept the advice of such private companies’ owners.
There is no doubt that, like in the United States and Europe, the use of surveys to gauge the preferences of consumers in various countries or to understand the public’s mood for election preparation began nearly three decades ago. Prannoy Roy can be considered the pioneer of this practice. He started with India Today magazine and then gradually became the founder of a large media company, including TV journalism. But in the past decade, survey companies have opened fifty shops. Like astrological predictions, sometimes someone’s estimate turns out to be correct, and most are wrong. Then they shift their focus to counting numbers and highlighting the weaknesses of leaders. A few years ago, a sting operation was conducted on some of these companies, causing quite a ruckus on a TV channel. But in the world of politics, educated and trained western leaders rely on these shopkeepers more than their party’s regional and local leaders.
In reality, the Congress has formed a task force for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, consisting of former Union Minister P. Chidambaram, Mukul Wasnik, Jairam Ramesh, K.C. Venugopal, Ajay Makan, Priyanka Gandhi, Randeep Surjewala, and Sunil Kogolu. Each member of the task force has been assigned responsibilities related to organization, communication, media, finance, and election management. Sunil Kogolu’s entry into the Congress followed the breakdown of talks between the alleged election strategist Prashant Kishor and the Congress. Sunil Kogolu was born in Ballari district of Karnataka, where he completed his middle school education. Later, he resided in Chennai and Bengaluru. Despite being a Telugu speaker by origin, Kogolu’s roots are in Karnataka, and he currently resides in Bengaluru. He has previously worked for the BJP, Janata Dal (Secular), and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). According to local media reports, during the 2017 Jallikattu protests, he was also involved in supporting Tamil pride and the Dravidian movement, which helped the DMK confront the aggressive BJP. After rejecting the Congress proposal for joining the party last year on 26 April, following Prashant Kishor’s rejection of Congress’ offer to join the party, Sunil Kogolu was brought on board to assist in the party’s electoral strategy for various elections across India. Credit is also given to the election strategist for planning Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra. This journey is considered a significant step taken by the oldest party, and it has influenced some recent election outcomes.
After his successful work in the Karnataka Legislative Assembly elections, Kanugolu established an office in Madhya Pradesh. Sunil Kanugolu was previously part of Prashant Kishor’s team, who claimed to have played a crucial role in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s election campaign in 2014. While he worked under the leadership of Modi, BJP, and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh’s grassroots efforts and years of ground-level work were instrumental in their success.
Kanugolu is a surveyor, and he founded the Association of Brilliant Minds (ABM), which organized the campaign for the BJP in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh elections. According to party leaders, he is known to work for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. Sunil Kanugolu has a minimal presence on social media and is sometimes described as a mysterious figure, with a unique style. Before Kishor and Sunil Kanugolu went their separate ways, they had worked together in 2014.
It is said that he doesn’t impose his ideas on the party. After parting ways with Kishor, Kanugolu ran a campaign for DMK chief M.K. Stalin before the 2016 Assembly polls, which was successful. While DMK may have lost in that election, Stalin emerged as a prominent leader.
After Tamil Nadu, Kanugolu worked with the BJP in Delhi until February 2018. Kanugolu claimed that he played a role in shaping campaigns for the BJP in various states, including Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Karnataka, with the help of a team of 300 people. Before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Sunil Kanugolu joined the DMK camp, and now he is with the Congress party. The market research company Axis My India has made significant strides in recent years within media organizations, announcing that they intend to invest Rs 500 crore to connect with 25 crore families. To achieve this, the company is developing a digital platform alongside focusing on two-way communication solutions. Pradeep Gupta, the founder and chairman of Axis My India, has said that the company plans to invest up to Rs 500 crore in the project, which will be raised through a combination of debt and equity dilution. Axis My India was founded in 1998. The company is known for conducting surveys during general and state elections, and it claims to reach approximately 8.5 crore households during these endeavours.
Gupta said, “Exit polls or opinion polls are part of the market research. We have a vision to address the issues of all 25 crore Indian families. This is an ambitious plan and undoubtedly very challenging.” The Center for Voting Opinion and Trends in Election Research (CVOTER) is a company that has worked on electoral surveys not only in India, but also in the United States. Yashwant Deshmukh is the director and founder-editor of CVOTER India. CVOTER India states that it has conducted surveys that include 15 central budgets, over 100 state elections, and over 30 international events. They claim that in May 2016, polls were held in Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala. C-VOTER was the only one among five major agencies to accurately predict the results in Tamil Nadu. Several such poll companies and so-called strategists have emerged across the country, mirroring these prominent firms. This business is on the rise, but it is posing significant challenges for grassroots politicians and workers. Whether this will ultimately benefit or harm the public, remains uncertain.
The writer is editorial director of ITV Network—India News and Dainik Aaj Samaj.