Polls outcome to impact Kejriwal

More than any other political leader, the outcome of the Assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, besides the results of the Delhi Municipal polls would impact AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal.
The Delhi Chief Minister is expecting his party to do well in Gujarat but appears determined to wrest power from the BJP in the MCD. However, if AAP has to win in Delhi, it would also largely depend on how the Congress performs.
The simple calculation is that if the Congress does reasonably well, the BJP shall get the advantage even though there is a huge anti-incumbency factor against the saffron brigade in Delhi. But a divided anti-BJP vote shall suit the BJP more than anybody else.
The Congress is banking on the minority votes in Delhi to increase its tally. The assessment is that the Muslims in particular are very unhappy with the AAP and may thus stand with the grand old party. If this happens, the BJP may be able to retain power once again.
However, the AAP’s supporters are of the view that ultimately, the people of Delhi who want a change would vote for the party which was best placed to beat the BJP. This is where AAP hopes to score.
In the Delhi campaign, all the top guns of the BJP have come out in the field. The pamphlets that have been distributed have Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s photographs with the message that the vote for the BJP was a vote for Modi. The problem with the BJP campaign is that despite a good selection of candidates and a well-oiled organizational machinery, the local leadership does not have much traction with the workers. Therefore, in the event the party loses, the Central leaders may bring about drastic changes.
There is another dimension to these elections which pertains to the 2025 Assembly elections. The BJP’s objective is evident that it should focus on winning Delhi back; after 1998, the saffron brigade has not managed to come to power in the city. In order to do that, the party must perform well in the civic elections so that a proper base could be prepared for both the Assembly elections and the Parliamentary Dangal in 2024.
Even Kejriwal is hoping to do well in the MCD elections since it would demoralise the BJP and also equip him to deal with the later electoral confrontations. What goes in his favour are a number of freebies, the most important being free transportation in city buses for women. There is discomfort in his party over ticket distribution and the original AAP workers seem to be upset over the tickets being given to new entrants amidst unsubstantiated charges of corruption.
So far as the Congress goes, it lacks organisational muscles and is banking on the minorities to boost its chances as also the ability of some individual leaders to use their goodwill and long standing in politics to help secure some seats.
For Kejriwal, a victory in Delhi and some inroads in Gujarat would help him to join the ranks of leaders who are hoping to challenge Modi in 2024. The BJP is likely to come back to power in the Prime Minister’s home state. As some political analysts have said that people want a change in Gujarat but do not wish to weaken Modi in any manner. They realise that if BJP loses in Gujarat, it would have direct ramifications for the big two in the party. So this possibility is completely ruled out. In fact, the BJP may get to a very respectable score there. AAP’s gains in Gujarat, like in many other places, would be at the cost of the Congress.
The greatest drawback for the AAP is that it has been unable to make any impact in the Himachal Pradesh elections, where the two traditional rivals are pitted against each other. Had Kejriwal been able to secure a foothold in the hill state, his claim for the 2024 challenger would have been strengthened.
The elections have proved that Modi continues to be the pivot of any electoral confrontation and his being in the field makes him the most formidable leader who looks unbeatable at this stage. For anyone to upstage the BJP anywhere, dealing with the Modi magic would be the greatest test.
The Gandhis have kept away from the Gujarat polls and the Delhi elections. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra had campaigned actively in Himachal, attracting huge crowds. She and her husband, Robert, had joined Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra in Madhya Pradesh, where the Congress has shown signs of resuscitation, largely because of efforts put by the Pradesh president Kamal Nath, who is trying to put back the organisational structure in place.
There are a large number of Congress supporters who feel that by not campaigning in Gujarat, the Gandhis have vacated the space for AAP, which is likely to cut into its vote bank. In fact, after the demise of Ahmed Patel, Sonia Gandhi’s principal aide, the Congress has not been able to put together a good strategy. The party president Mallikarjun Kharge was unable to make any impact and his comparison of Modi with Ravana has not gone down well with the people at large. He should be more careful in the future because Modi can give a spin to any attack on him.
Finally, all eyes would be on Kejriwal and how his party performs if he has to enhance his stature. Between us.