Data from Civil Registration System shows annual population growth falling by 50% from 2011 to 2020.
Punjab has been witnessing a consistent decline in its population growth rate over the past decade. While the 2021 Census results are yet to be unveiled, data from the Civil Registration System (CRS) reveals a striking decrease in the annual population growth in Punjab, which plummeted by 50% from 2011 to 2020.
In 2011, Punjab recorded a population growth of over 3.23 lakh, but by 2020, this figure had dropped to 1.51 lakh. The most recent CRS report, available for the year 2020, indicates that Punjab’s population growth rate now stands at 1.65%, a stark contrast to the national rate of 2.98%. Punjab’s contribution to India’s overall population fell from 2.37% in 2001 to 2.29% in 2011.
Within Punjab, the number of births was 5,11,058 in 2011, decreasing to 3,81,200 in 2020, while deaths increased from 1,87,675 in 2011 to 2,29,846 in 2020. Notably, the neighbouring state of Haryana, though smaller in size, recorded 5,91,914 births and 2,12,238 deaths in 2020.
In 2020, Punjab contributed 1.57% (3.8 lakh) of the total births in India (2.42 crore) while accounting for 2.8% (2.3 lakh) of the deaths in India (81.16 lakh) during the same period. Several factors contribute to this evolving demographic landscape in Punjab. A significant trend is the emigration of young Punjabis, who often establish new lives abroad, marrying and having children in their adopted countries. Simultaneously, there is a noticeable increase in the number of migrants from other Indian states settling in Punjab.
Notably, Muslims from diverse economic backgrounds are migrating from Uttar Pradesh to Punjab, where they establish small and medium-sized businesses. Punjab Wakf Board Chairman M. F. Farooqui has confirmed this influx of migrant Muslims, who are reviving mosques that had been abandoned after Partition.
The surge in young Punjabis emigrating is a primary reason for the declining population growth trend, as they often establish families abroad. Meanwhile, most migrants from other Indian states settling in Punjab are typically young, living with their families, and contributing to the local birth rate. Consequently, the growth rate among native Punjabis may be even lower.
The declining population growth rate is likely to have a substantial impact on the Sikh community, as their percentage of the population has already decreased at the national level. From 2001 to 2011, the Sikh population fell from 1.87% to 1.72% in the country, and from 59.91% to 57.69% in Punjab.
Notably, there is an increasing trend of Muslims migrating from Uttar Pradesh to Punjab. Community leaders explain that this migration is primarily driven by the perception of Punjab as a safe and communally stable region. In the past, migration to Punjab from other Indian states encompassed people from diverse communities and castes.