The dust is not settling for the India bloc, as Bhagwant Mann has announced that the Aam Admi Party will go solo in Punjab. This comes as a double blow to the alliance, as Mamata Banerjee too took a similar approach in West Bengal. However, it was evident in Punjab that both alliance partners will go solo for the forthcoming general elections, despite Congress’s some agreement in Delhi with the AAP.
The Sunday Guardian carried a story after the Congress-AAP meeting in Delhi wherein we clarified that both parties will contest solo in Punjab as their ground cadre was against such an alliance in the state. Congress was not surprised by AAP’s decision on Punjab, as both parties’ state units were against forming an alliance in the state. Arvind Kejriwal, the AAP chief, had conveyed this possibility to Congress leaders during meetings with Kharge and Rahul. The National Alliance Committee of Congress declined talks on Punjab during negotiations with the AAP, emphasizing their mandate for seat sharing in Delhi.
Additionally, coalition managers believe this stance could provide the BJP and SAD with a narrative that the government and opposition have collaborated in Punjab.
According to some sources, there will be a friendly contest in Punjab between the Congress and the AAP, which will further stop the vote split. The anti-incumbency votes could have gone to the SAD and BJP in the event of an alliance, but now they are expected to go in favour of Congress.
The AAP government in Punjab is facing accusations from the Congress of stifling political opposition and arresting MLA Sukhpal Singh Khaira on charges of drug smuggling and money laundering. In response, the AAP asserts it has a significant mandate from Punjab’s people and expresses readiness to compete independently. Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann considers questions about alliances as hypothetical.
Additionally, Minister Anmol Gagan Maan firmly rejects the possibility of an AAP-Congress alliance in Punjab. Some leaders believe the BJP poses a minimal threat in Punjab, suggesting a potential alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal could be more impactful.
The uncertain status of the India alliance in Punjab creates a favourable situation for the BJP and SAD, who may exploit differences between the Congress and AAP ahead of the 2024 elections. Bhagwant Mann also claimed that AAP will win all 13 Lok Sabha seats in the state, which seems practically not feasible as in the 2019 general elections AAP could only manage 7.5% votes and won one seat, which it later lost in by-election to Simranjeet Mann of SAD(A) after sitting MP Bhagwant Mann was elevated as Chief Minister of the state after their victory in the 2022 assembly elections. However, it regained a seat in the Jalandhar bypoll after the demise of Congress MP Santokh Singh.
This time things do not seem the same for the AAP government, as it is facing anti-incumbency due to some failed promises like that of a drug-free Punjab, a problem the state has been grappling with a long time. Also, the government could not come up with any concrete policy to sort out the water crisis in Punjab. It is facing a severe water crisis due to overexploitation of groundwater, inter-state disputes over river water sharing, and climate change. The groundwater table is depleting at an alarming rate, leading to water scarcity and reduced crop productivity. Also, the government has been unsuccessful in managing water pollution, as canals and rivers suffer from industrial effluents, sewage, and agricultural runoff. Groundwater is similarly contaminated with heavy metals, pesticides, and salinity.
This decision will further impact the performance of the SAD and BJP, where they have always contested in alliances, but this time things are different for both. Their solo participation may impact their performance in the state, as Akali Dal enjoys superiority over rural voters while the BJP is popular amongst urban voters. Combined, it was a force that always challenged the Congress, but the fading away of Akali could help Congress in some way, and since the BJP has roped in several big leaders like Amrendra Singh, Sunil Jakhar, Manpreet Badal, and many more, it is expected to perform better in the absence of Akali dal.