Indecisive voters and fence-sitters hold the key to victory in several seats.
JAIPUR
For the first time in the electoral history of Rajasthan, it is quite difficult to predict the winner in the Assembly elections. On the basis of present showing, experts believe that both the Congress and the BJP are not able to touch the magic figure of majority. Both parties are evenly poised. There are about 50 seats where the contest is being considered very close. The margin of victory is going to be very small.
With this in view, the indecisive voters and fence-sitters hold the key to victory. The party which succeeds in wooing these voters may cross the magic number. Both main political rivals—BJP and Congress—have not taken any risk in the matter of candidate selection. They relied on old faces in most of the seats. Both parties have definitely fielded new faces only on four to five seats. The political parties such as Aam Aadmi Party, RLP, Bahujan Samaj Party, Owaisi’s AIMIM are also in the fray. These outfits will dent the votes of the Congress.
What remains to be seen is whether the votes that these regional parties get in Rajasthan fall like what happened in Karnataka. The major reason for the victory of Congress in Karnataka was that the Muslim and other caste votes which should supposedly have gone to Deve Gowda’s party JDS went directly to Congress instead of being divided. If this happens in Rajasthan also, Congress will benefit.
Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot is the main face from the Congress side and the party is hoping to make a comeback on the basis of his work. But it is surprising that despite all the public welfare schemes and decisions, there is no wave in favour of Congress. There is no resentment against Chief Minister Gehlot, but still there is no clarity who is winning the elections.
This is also happening for the first time in Rajasthan that there is no resentment against the ruling party. Congress believes that the public has made up its mind to repeat the government. The real face is the same. Naresh Arora, alias Nishu Arora, is another name who is playing a vital role in elections on behalf of Congress. The party and the government are following the strategy given by Arora. Naresh, owner of DesignBox Company, has been associated with Congress for a long time. His job is to decide the strategy and issues. Ever since he took charge of Rajasthan eight months ago, he has been running the entire Congress as per his wish. In the first phase of the campaign, he helped boost the image of Chief Minister Gehlot by running the inflation relief camp campaign. In a way, the campaign ensured that no anti-incumbency was there against Gehlot and his government. Gehlot emerged as Congress poster boy as a result of a huge campaign.
Meanwhile, there were reports of tussle within the organization. But after getting the responsibility of the second phase, Arora ensured that posters feature state President Govind Singh Dotasra with party symbol “Punja” across the state. Seven guarantees were highlighted in the posters. The message is that if Congress wins, it will make law regarding OPS, provide gas cylinder for Rs 500 to more than one crore people, Rs 10,000 in a year under Griha Lakshmi Guarantee, cow dung will be bought for Rs two under Godhan Guarantee, free laptop, Disaster Relief Insurance Guarantee and English Medium Education Guarantee etc.
Congress has tried to directly reach out to the government employees, poor and middle class in urban and rural areas through these schemes. Gehlot gives the same message to the common people that his government will take care of voters. The Congress is also making the recent ED raids an issue. ED has suddenly increased the raids on the locations of politicians, businessmen and officers in Rajasthan. Congress is considering these actions beneficial for it.
On the other hand, BJP is making “corruption” a big issue due to ED raids. Along with this, women’s safety, paper leaks, etc. are also major issues being raised by the saffron camp. The Kanhaiya Lal murder case of Udaipur has also entered the electoral discourse. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has indicated in one of his election public meetings that Hindutva will be a big issue in Rajasthan. Of course, the message of the saffron brigade is that the issues having potential of polarisation will be raised.
Till now, BJP has made Prime Minister Modi its face. However, the posters carry the pictures of national president J.P. Nadda, state president C.P. Joshi, Opposition leader Rajendra Rathore and former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, along with Modi. The ticket distribution by the BJP leadership is an indicator that Vasundhara Raje has been given importance. Though the face of the Chief Minister has not been announced, the high command is spotlighting Raje and giving a message.
After the fourth list, Raje has started creating an impact on the campaign. Gehlot has also challenged Raje for a direct debate on the seven guarantees. Meanwhile, Hanuman Beniwal’s party RLP is fielding more than two-and-a-half dozen candidates in constituencies like Nagor, Jodhpur, Ajmer and Bikaner, directly challenging the BJP. RLP is considered to have a hold on Jat votes. Jat is considered to be the traditional voters of the Congress. The Aam Aadmi Party will only work to cut votes. BSP has a support base in some areas. Last time, it had won 6 seats. Owaisi’s party will field candidates in Muslim areas which will benefit BJP. Independents are also in the fray in large numbers. If both Congress and BJP stop short of a majority mark, the independents and smaller parties will call the shots.