NEW DELHI: The outcomes of the 2024 European Parliament elections have caused a seismic shift in the political landscape of the European Union. Over four days of voting, citizens from 27 member countries elected 720 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs), resulting in a dramatic rightward shift that has transformed the dynamics of the world’s only directly elected transnational legislature.
This election cycle, the first since Brexit, saw far-right parties gain significant ground, challenging conventional power arrangements in crucial member states. France’s National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, which received approximately 32% of the vote, dealt a major blow to French President Emmanuel Macron’s pro-European centrists. This strong victory prompted Macron to dissolve Parliament and call for snap national elections, highlighting France’s volatile political situation. Similarly, in Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats received only 13.9% of the vote, their lowest post-World War II performance. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) took advantage of this vulnerability, boosting their share to 15.9% despite recent scandals. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s party, with its far-right antecedents, earned more over 28% of the national vote, placing itself as a pivotal force in future EU alliances.
While the rise of the far right represents a drastic shift, established political groups like the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) has maintained immense power. The EPP still forms the largest bloc in the European Parliament, with 191 seats. Despite losing some ground, the centre-left Socialists and Democrats have remained the second-largest coalition, with 135 seats.
The rightward tilt of the European Parliament is expected to have profound implications across various policy areas, including economic, environmental, and security policies. This also reflects a growing predilection for protectionist measures among European voters. These policies are likely to favour national economic interests over global integration. Far-right parties frequently argue for greater import controls, stricter limits on foreign investments, and steps to safeguard home sectors from international competition. Such protectionist impulses might result in higher tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and regulatory measures, complicating trade ties inside the EU and with foreign partners.
France’s National Rally has emphasised the importance of protecting French industries from international competition, which could lead to measures that reduce imports while promoting local enterprises. Similarly, Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Italy’s Fratelli d’Italia, led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, have backed policies that prioritise home economic interests over globalisation. These changes could result in a more fragmented internal market within the EU, calling into question the single market ideas that have long served as the foundation of European integration.
Impact on India
For India, these developments in the EU are significant, at a time when Prime Minister Narendra Modi begins his third term. Improving relations with the EU has been a cornerstone of Modi’s foreign policy, and the election results could either support or undermine this goal. The European Union is one of India’s most important trading partners, with bilateral commerce reaching substantial volumes each year with both having a trade of €88 billion or 10.8% of total Indian trade in 2021. The rightward trend in the EU Parliament may have a dual impact on India-EU commercial relations.
On one hand, the new European Parliament’s protectionist stance could complicate trade negotiations by raising tariffs and non-tariff barriers, impeding the flow of goods and services between India and the EU, and affecting key Indian export sectors such as textiles, pharmaceuticals, and information technology. On the other hand, the alignment of right-leaning economic policies in both regions could open up new avenues for partnership. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s emphasis on deregulation, ease of doing business, and market access may resonate with the incoming EU Parliament, perhaps reviving long-stalled discussions for an India-EU Free Trade Agreement. The long-stalled negotiations for an India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) may acquire new vigour. A more protectionist EU, focused on deregulation and market access, might complement India’s economic strategy, paving the door for increasing trade and investment. This potential alignment could be critical to strengthening economic connections and promoting mutual progress.
Geopolitically, the EU’s changing posture towards China is very important to India. Public opinion in Europe has grown increasingly sceptical of China’s global position, and this scepticism is likely to influence EU policy. This trend is consistent with India’s strategic worries about China, creating an opportunity for deeper engagement between India and the EU. As both areas navigate tricky geopolitical waters, a united approach on matters concerning China may reinforce their bilateral relations.
Counterterrorism, cybersecurity, and maritime security are all areas where collaborative initiatives and intelligence-sharing agreements can be formed to strengthen both countries’ security regimes. However, security remains a critical point of divergence to a good extent. The new right-wing European Parliament is expected to prioritise robust security measures and a stronger defence posture, particularly in light of the perceived Russian threats and regional instability. India’s long-standing links with Russia, along with the EU’s predicted harsher stance on Russia following the elections, could result in the creation of complex geopolitical dynamics. India may experience growing pressure to strike a balance between its longstanding connections with Russia and the EU’s developing foreign policy, which could influence India’s diplomatic initiatives and economic engagements on the global stage. This environment may require India to carefully negotiate its foreign policy, the way it has in the past when it came to India-USA relations in backdrop of Russia-Ukraine war, for protecting its strategic interests while responding to altering international alignments and expectations.
Another area where India and the EU may agree is on environmental policy, but with a more nuanced approach. The European Green Deal and measures such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are critical components of the EU’s climate strategy. A right-wing Parliament may aim to strike a compromise between environmental goals and economic competitiveness, reflecting India’s approach to sustainable development under Modi. Collaborative efforts in this area could result in new solutions to climate change while encouraging economic prosperity. The political realignment in Europe necessitates careful navigation to ensure the preservation of shared democratic values. Both regions must remain vigilant in upholding principles such as democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. The convergence of right-wing ideologies presents opportunities for closer cooperation, but it also demands a commitment to maintaining these foundational values.
In conclusion, the 2024 European Parliament elections are more than just a regional political event; they signal a broader realignment that will shape global dynamics. Whatever happens in Europe, it has far reaching consequences across the globe. For India, the results underscore the need for a robust and dynamic engagement with the EU. As both regions navigate this new political terrain, the potential for a stronger alliance is evident, with mutual benefits in trade, security, and geopolitical policy. The outcome of these elections highlights the importance of strategic partnerships in addressing global challenges, underscoring the interconnected nature of today’s world.
Yashawardhana, Research Fellow at India Foundation