Waqf may test NDA’s Muslim support in Bihar

Waqf Bill has stirred a political storm in Bihar, threatening NDA’s Muslim support ahead of this year’s Assembly elections.

NEW DELHI: Following the recent passage of the Waqf Amendment Bill, political tensions have intensified for the NDA allies in Bihar—particularly Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal United (JDU) and Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJP-RV)—as they gear up for the upcoming Assembly elections. Retaining Muslim support has become a critical challenge, especially amid growing discontent. On the flip side, the Opposition—led by Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)—is keen to seize the moment and convert the situation to its advantage. With polarisation increasing across the state, the RJD is positioning itself to reap electoral benefits.

The Waqf Bill has emerged as a flashpoint in India’s widening political divide, with Bihar becoming the epicentre of this ideological conflict. The legislation is set to significantly impact the state’s political climate as it heads toward Assembly elections slated for October 2025. Anxiety is palpable within JDU ranks, especially after five Muslim leaders resigned from the party in protest against its support for the controversial bill. This wave of resignations has intensified fears within the JDU camp of losing their grip on the Muslim vote base. While JDU’s influence among Muslim voters has diminished since 2014, the situation remains equally precarious for the LJP-RV.
Notably, Bihar has a substantial Muslim population whose support is often decisive in electoral outcomes. According to a caste-based survey conducted by the Bihar government, Muslims constitute approximately 17.70% of the state’s population, with more than 12% belonging to the Pasmanda segment. Drawing from the 2024 Lok Sabha electoral data, Bihar has around 7.64 crore registered voters. If we correlate this with the 2011 census, which pegs the Muslim population at 17%, it amounts to an estimated 1.29 crore (1,29,93,667) Muslim voters in Bihar. Party insiders claim that Muslim votes significantly influence outcomes in at least 50 of the state’s 243 Assembly constituencies.
Thus, both JDU and LJP-RV are under immense pressure to consolidate these votes and avoid any polarisation. Muslim voters appear disillusioned with both parties for endorsing the Waqf Bill, despite assurances that the legislation is intended for the welfare of the community. Political observers believe that both parties must actively work to convey the message that the bill is pro-Muslim and not detrimental to their interests. JDU, for instance, argues that the bill is aimed at modernising Waqf management, enhancing transparency, empowering Muslim women, and curbing corruption. Prime Minister Narendra Modi hailed the bill’s passage as a “watershed moment.” However, these justifications have not fully neutralised charges of political opportunism, especially with elections around the corner.

Moreover, according

to available data, JDU under Kumar has enjoyed significant backing from the Muslim electorate—particularly during his anti-BJP stance in the 2014 Lok Sabha and 2015 Assembly elections, when alliances with the RJD helped him garner as much as 80% of Muslim votes. However, that support has steadily declined since Kumar realigned with the BJP-led NDA. In the 2020 Assembly elections, JDU managed to secure only about 5% of Muslim votes. The party’s recent support for the Waqf Bill could deepen this divide further.
On the other hand, Tejashwi Yadav and the RJD are capitalising on Muslim discontent, promising to scrap the Waqf Amendment Bill if elected in 2025 and to challenge it in court. Meanwhile, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj is emerging as a fresh alternative, appealing to disillusioned Muslim voters. By joining protests with the AIMPLB, Kishor aims to undercut both JDU and RJD.
He sharply criticises Kumar for abandoning his secular stance and supporting a bill widely opposed by Muslims, accusing him of aiding the BJP’s divisive agenda under the pretext of reform.

According to a political analyst closely tracking Bihar’s developments, the state’s 243 Assembly seats mean that even a slight swing in voter sentiment could prove decisive.
If the Muslim vote—historically aligned with the RJD—splits between RJD and Jan Suraaj, or if JDU loses Muslim support altogether, the NDA could face severe setbacks. For example, in the 2015 Assembly polls, the Mahagathbandhan (comprising RJD, JDU, and Congress) won 178 seats, largely thanks to a consolidated Muslim vote. A fragmented Muslim electorate in 2025 could tilt the balance in favour of the Opposition, with the Waqf Amendment Bill emerging as a critical inflection point in Bihar’s electoral battle.