NEW DELHI: Maharashtra’s “Sugar Bowl” and “Coastal Belt” are set for a high-stakes political battle in the Assembly elections scheduled for 20 November 2024. Key regions like Konkan and Western Maharashtra will witness intense competition between the ruling Mahayuti alliance and opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The election is marked by internal rifts within the Shiv Sena, now split between factions led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and former Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, and within the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), divided between Ajit Pawar and Sharad Pawar. The outcomes in these two crucial regions are expected to shape Maharashtra’s political landscape for the next five years.
The coastal belt, covering the districts of Mumbai, Thane, Kalyan, Palghar, Raigad, and Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg, along with Western Maharashtra—comprising Pune, Satara, Sangli, Solapur, and Kolhapur—is preparing for a high-stakes battle across 75 and 70 Assembly seats, respectively. Since the Shiv Sena and NCP split in June 2022, the political landscape has shifted significantly, making the upcoming Assembly elections particularly intriguing as both factions of the Shiv Sena and NCP compete for dominance. Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar, who each broke away from their respective parties—Shiv Sena and NCP—to form factions aligned with the BJP, now face crucial tests in their strongholds. Despite rising to top state positions with MLA support, both must prove if they still command the popular backing that the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar-led NCP enjoyed in the 2019 Assembly elections.
Moreover, the situation is particularly challenging for Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena faction, as post-split defections of key leaders—including two out of four former MPs and over 20 of the 29 sitting MLAs from Konkan—have significantly weakened Thackeray’s base. This election is crucial for him to uphold his father Balasaheb Thackeray’s legacy and demonstrate his leadership despite substantial party losses. A similar scenario is unfolding in Western Maharashtra. The Ajit Pawar-led NCP faction is focused on regaining its foothold in the region, especially following a setback in the recent Lok Sabha elections, where Ajit’s wife, Sunetra Pawar, lost to Supriya Sule in Baramati. This defeat has intensified the rivalry between the two NCP factions and heightened the stakes for Ajit Pawar’s camp. With several senior leaders remaining loyal to Sharad Pawar, his faction holds a stronger position in the region, creating a “do or die” situation for Ajit Pawar’s group. Meanwhile, the Sharad Pawar-led faction has already succeeded in attracting leaders from both the BJP and Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction.
The upcoming Assembly elections will serve as a decisive test for both Shiv Sena and NCP factions, each battling to reclaim their traditional voter bases. While the ruling alliance emphasises Hindutva, development, and new initiatives, the opposition is focusing on alleged corruption and accusing rivals of orchestrating splits in parties. Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena and Sharad Pawar’s NCP are framing Shinde’s and Ajit Pawar’s factions as “traitors,” aiming to rally public sympathy. This election could be the ultimate showdown, shaping not only regional politics but also the futures of leaders Uddhav Thackeray, Eknath Shinde, Sharad Pawar, and Ajit Pawar.