The jury is still out on demonetisation. But despite relentless criticism, there can be little doubt that the scrapping of big currency notes will leave the economy in a far better state than it was before 8 November. Even after making generous allowance for the nation-wide disruption, the multifaceted gains set to flow from the arduous exercise will, eventually—yes, “eventually” is the operative word—outweigh all the pain and misery suffered by ordinary people.
We know it is hard for the nitwits who have a vice-like grip on the Grand Old Party to come to terms with the ground reality. But others, including Nobel laureates, incessantly spewing venom against the Narendra Modi government, ought to have noticed how in a series of local bodies’ elections, voters had most disdainfully rejected their favourite party. Never before had the BJP registered such a stunning win as it did in the post-notebandi poll for the Chandigarh Municipal Corporation. This despite the self-styled tribune of intellectual journalism ceaselessly disseminating prejudice daily.
There is an ironic dichotomy about demonetisation: Celebrated economists bash government for inflicting avoidable pain on the people, but those very people actually welcome the exercise. All that the anti-demonetisation campaign has succeeded in achieving is that even the ordinary people reluctantly concede that the preparation for undertaking such a stupendous task could have been better. But, still, they whole-heartedly support the stated objective behind notebandi.
The government might concern itself with the number of small and medium businesses which will now be forced into the tax-net. But the real beneficiaries will be tens of thousands of workers who will inevitably find themselves entitled to a just and fair treatment once their employers are obliged to go legit. To take but one example, the textiles sector, including those whose annual exports run into hundreds of crores, barely employs a handful of people on official rolls. A vast majority of employees is contractual. Even if a small percentage of units in the textile sector were to be brought into the formal economy, tens of thousands will come under the labour welfare umbrella.
Bleeding- heart liberals who passionately hate the Modi Sarkar need to be reminded how 70 years of samajwad (socialism) had left tens of thousands of daily wage-earners outside the welfare net, thanks to retrograde labour laws. While aspiring to enact a law exclusively for domestic workers, granting them eight-hour shifts and minimum wages, the woolly-headed liberals choose to gloss over the misery of tens of lakhs of industrial and commercial workers, who eke out a paltry living without the benefit of minimal protections such as annual leave, medical coverage, bonus, etc. Demonetisation will translate into lasting gains for a sizeable section of the nationwide kucchha workforce.
In purely political terms too, the critics of demonetisation are staring at dejection. They have none in their ranks to spearhead the anti-Modi campaign. The more Rahul Gandhi froths against notebandi, while rolling up the sleeves of his kurta and adjusting the twin prongs of the mike, the more harm he does to the Opposition cause. Scam-tainted Lalu Yadav and Mayawati carry no conviction outside their limited caste people. Nitish Kumar will not criticise demonetisation as much to be with the popular mood as to keep Lalu on notice that he has other options, should he make life difficult for him in the coalition of convenience in Bihar.
Mulayam Singh is too busy fending off implosion in his own Yadav family to be able to offer a coherent comment on notebandi. Mamata Banerjee’s shrillness is easily explained as a crude attempt to claim the leadership mantle of the anti-BJP forces, as also to please minorities which constitute nearly one-third of the total electorate in her state. As for Arvind Kejriwal, less said the better. A crude caricature of the aam aadmi, no one any longer gives him the time of the day.
In sharp contrast, Modi continues to be by far the most popular leader, whose ratings are higher than those of all his principal challengers combined. His supreme self-confidence to be able to scrap at one-go 86% of the money in circulation was the lynchpin behind demonetisation. Besides, his oratorical skills, and the capacity to spin in order to turn sticky situations in his favour, seemed to have defeated the concerted anti-notebandi campaign. Being in control of the levers of power, including the state-owned media, also helps.
For sure, the latest growth numbers, due early January, are unlikely to be positive. But this was only to be expected. Credit off-take was already terribly cramped because the UPA had opened the bank coffers to all comers who could reach out to ministers and/or their agents. Thanks to demonetisation, the task of recapitalising the banking sector may have become slightly easier. The economic slowdown will remain a concern for some time, given the anti-globalisation mood worldwide. The rupee will come under further pressure due to the rising Fed rate.
Yet, as he approaches the third anniversary in office, there is no threat on the horizon to Modi. Fortunately for him, the most crucial Assembly poll in the coming months in UP too is most likely slated to go in his favour, especially if the Yadav warfare results in a Samawjadi split and, equally importantly, Mayawati fails to forsake her supreme love for the worldly maya. Never before has any politician amassed such a huge private fortune in such a short time as has the so-called Dalit czarina. Even Sharad Pawar, Karunanidhi, Badal et al took decades to tot up sizable assets. Mayawati seems to have left all of them far, far behind. But then Mayawati does so in the name of Dalits. Others lacked such alibis to loot the people and yet did what they could to enrich themselves beyond their wildest dreams.
Meanwhile, a very happy New Year to all readers of this column.
No sense
We cannot help but refer to those favourite diaries of Rahul Gandhi. That he has failed to find any traction despite repeating himself parrot-like all these days about “Modiji’s” name in the so-called diaries is beside the point. If he had any sense, which lots of people doubt he has, he would at least take the trouble of fielding all the Congressmen and Congresswomen whose names figure in those diaries at a joint press conference in the national capital. And make them openly and categorically confess that they did pocket the amounts listed against their names. That way at least he might lend some credence to the diary entries. If a Digvijaya Singh or a Sheila Dikshit continues to rubbish the diaries, how does Rahul Gandhi expect to carry any conviction with the people?