Out of all the Assembly polls being held in the next few weeks, it is Punjab alone that would be able to determine whether the Congress would continue to be a significant player in the electoral arena in the immediate future. The stakes in the border state are very high for the grand old party, whose victory rests solely on the shoulders of its most formidable campaigner, Captain Amarinder Singh. In actuality, the contest in Punjab is between the erstwhile Maharaja of Patiala, on the one side and the Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP combine and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) on the other.
Amarinder’s opponents are very well aware that if they can curtail the mercurial former Chief Minister, they would have stalled the Congress from posing any threat whatsoever in the elections. Therefore, both the Akalis and AAP have poured their energies in entirety countering his charisma by using every viable trick in the trade. The Akalis have fielded former Army Chief J.J. Singh to take him on in Patiala and are hoping that in the fight between two former soldiers, the General is able to pin down the Captain in his constituency. This, however, is unlikely to happen. The AAP too, has drawn up a detailed plan and thus is confident that in the current polls, they would have the decisive advantage both over the Akalis and the Congress particularly in the rural belt. The BJP is in a precarious position, and would, in addition to the anti incumbency factor, suffer heavily on account of demonetization, which is a key issue.
The supreme irony is that while the Captain has put his adversaries on the defensive by his aggressive campaign, it is his own party which continues to fish in troubled waters. The delay in the announcement of the candidates is certainly going to pose grave problems. The Congress leadership was holidaying overseas, knowing full well that it was crucial to win Punjab and had little care about the anxiety of the cadres in the poll bound state. As it is, the impression has gone around that it is 10 Janpath which would play a major role in case the Congress wins.
In this context, attempts to downsize Amarinder have already commenced. Sycophants did partially succeed in obstructing the announcement of his name as the Chief Ministerial face. There have been attempts at convincing the high command that in the event of Amarinder winning, he would become larger than life, and could consequently be a challenger so far as the party’s overall leadership goes. It, therefore, would possibly be difficult to rein him in, and he, in all probability, might run the state as his fiefdom. The Captain, on the other hand, has been showing considerable restraint by praising the Central leadership and taking pains to stress that vital decisions would be made by the bosses at the AICC.
However, there is no doubt that Amarinder is the only reason why the Congress is in the fight to begin with. Envious rivals have convinced the top leaders that he should not be permitted to bask in glory if the polls go in the party’s favour. Therefore, Navjot Singh Sidhu is being accorded undue importance to drive home the point that the ex-cricketer, too is going to play a big role in helping the Congress effort.
The Akalis are already off the block. Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Badal has perfected the art of contesting the polls. In order to woo disgruntled elements in his own party, he has made over a 100 appointments in various bodies of the government. There are unconfirmed reports that the Akalis could be financially assisting Bahujan Samaj Party nominees put up in all the 117 seats in order to divide the anti Akali vote.
Simultaneously, other factions of Akalis were being encouraged to field weak candidates against the SAD contestants to prevent non Jat Sikhs from making a headway. Further, the Congress dissidents would also be provided funds to pull down Amarinder’s team. These tactics are, of course not new, but are crucial in these particular elections, since they would have far reaching ramifications for the future of the Congress.
Several political analysts in the state seem to be suggesting that the best days of the AAP are over and the party is finding it difficult to keep up its momentum, particularly because its core team comprises outsiders who have very little acceptability in the state. However, AAP is certainly a major player in the polls and could spring a surprise on its adversaries as it had done in the Delhi Assembly elections in 2015. It is true that AAP does not have a prominent Jat Sikh face in Punjab, but its campaign is not directed towards any particular caste.
It is raking up the drug and narcotics menace. It is promising to provide a clean administration. Secondly, by not having a Jat Sikh face, it is hoping to replicate the BJP’s success story in Haryana, where the saffron brigade succeeded in cornering the majority share of anti Jat votes, leading to the appointment of Manohar Lal Khattar, a Punjabi, as the Chief Minister. The AAP has always laid greater emphasis on strategy rather than on castes and communities, therefore it would continue to be a difficult party to defeat.
The Congress must know that if it loses Punjab, it would face the prospect of desertions by its cadres and leaders in other parts of the country as well. That, obviously, would hasten the process of its decimation. It would be a miracle if it remains a significant player by the time 2019 Parliamentary elections take place. Between us.