The success of the formulation of the Congress and the Samajwadi Party alliance is widely being hailed in sections of the media. An impression is being created that this alliance was all set to conquer Uttar Pradesh and would simultaneously halt the political ambitions of the BJP, which is wanting to expand its base in the Assembly elections as well after securing more than 70 seats in the 2014 Parliamentary polls. Oddly, the Bahujan Samaj Party, which, according to many political pundits, is best placed to form the next government, is merely being mentioned in the passing by supporters of the SP-Congress tie-up.
There are several opinions regarding the alliance that has been sealed primarily because of the intervention of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, who is understood to have persuaded the reluctant Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav through his wife, Dimple, to come on board in the best interest of secular forces. A normally low key politician like Ahmed Patel, who during her entire presidency has been Sonia Gandhi’s principal adviser, also chose to speak out his mind on the subject. Patel stated that it was wrong to suggest that junior functionaries had been drafted to serve as emissaries of the high command, when in actuality both Priyanka and Ghulam Nabi Azad, the general secretary in-charge, were very much in the picture while securing the electoral arrangement with the Samajwadi Party.
The comments acquire significance in relation to political developments within the Congress, where not everybody is pleased with the new found bonhomie, as it is being considered to be detrimental to the overall interest of the party. The Congress has been handed over a 100 odd seats, including around 50 where even the Samajwadi Party would have found it hard to contest despite being in power for the past five years. Of the remaining seats, it is anybody’s guess on whether the Congress would manage to get past the twenty-figure and sceptics are convinced that this number was also on the higher side. The contrary view is that if the party had contested all the 403 seats, it would have managed to increase its vote share and more importantly it would have resurrected the organisational base in varied areas ahead of the 2019 Parliamentary polls. Now that opportunity obviously has been lost.
Thus the tie-up, as well as its implications for the grand old party, has to be viewed in the context of Priyanka being given the credit by several seniors, who have found it difficult to endear themselves to her brother and vice president Rahul Gandhi. As a matter of fact, those who failed to get Rahul’s approval, have decided to jump on to the Priyanka bandwagon in order to remain both relevant and politically active. However, in the process, the fissures within the Congress are deepening and would create problems for Rahul as and when he formally replaces Sonia Gandhi as the head of the organisation.
Patel is an astute observer of politics. Therefore his texts have to be interpreted through the prism of Congress developments. By giving full credit to both Priyanka and Ghulam Nabi Azad for the alliance, he has deftly distanced himself from the issue, while seemingly appearing to back it. If the alliance succeeds, he would prove to be politically correct, but on the other hand, if things take a different turn and the Congress suffers another debacle, the blame would largely be placed at Azad’s doorstep, since nobody in the party would openly hold Priyanka responsible. Patel’s objective is also to send a message to the rank and file that his importance remained undiminished in this evolving scenario and either way, he would continue to be a pivotal figure in the party’s internal dynamics.
The deal with the Samajwadi Party is being showcased as the best thing that has happened to Uttar Pradesh, where the two parties going through a transitional phase have managed to emerge looking much younger and energetic. It is being suggested that the Congress support would clinch the Muslim vote and help in influencing upper castes, particularly Brahmins, to vote for the alliance. The likelihood of this happening is remote, since Muslims always vote strategically and therefore would cast their vote for any candidate who is better placed to beat the BJP. By putting up 99 Muslim nominees, Mayawati has already taken the initiative of wooing the minorities and in eastern part of the state, her chances have further brightened with the induction of many known faces such as Mukhtar Anasari and his followers who have deserted the SP.
There is no reason why the Brahmins considered as an extremely cerebral community would throw their lot behind the alliance, which has an uncertain future. Every community likes to be on the winning side and if the Brahmins have any doubts over the viability of the alliance, they would prefer backing either the BSP or the BJP.
It is true that Priyanka bears a physical resemblance to her grandmother who was considered the greatest mass leader of the last century. Other than that she has to prove herself on the political front. Timing wise, it would have made more sense for her to step in the political arena in the following year and if the alliance fails, the clamour within the party for her taking an active role would also diminish. She is skating on thin ice. The risk factor has therefore been accelerated manifold. Between us.