With the US pre-occupation with elections and till the time a new President occupies the White House in January 2025, Israel has a window.
Israel is no stranger to facing multiple threats. At its birth it fought the combined Arab states in a desperate battle for survival. In 1967, it fought and defeated a coalition of Egypt, Jordan and Syria in just six days. It has been facing multiple threats virtually every year of its existence. Today, it is fighting on four fronts—four and a half to be exact. The major front is against the Hamas in Gaza, which now nearing conclusion. The Northern front in Lebanon against the Hezbollah has become the major battleground, as the action shifts there. And the third and most significant front lies against Iran—its sworn and most ardent enemy—which could determine the entire course of the Middle East. It is also fighting a “half-front war” (in a terminology used by the Indian military) with terrorist groups in the West Bank, Syria, and the Houthis—which, can cause significant damage. And the course of all these wars will be decided by another front—the US presidential elections in November 2024—whose results will determine how the wars of the Middle East—and in other places—will pan out.
It has been a year now since the Hamas attacks on 7 October 2023. When Israel raged into Gaza its aim was retribution—nothing more. It has attained that in more than enough measure. Hamas has been virtually destroyed, the entire leadership responsible for the attacks—including Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, Marwan Issa, Ismail Haniyeh and others—have been eliminated; 17,000 Hamas cadres and over 41,000 Gazans have been killed. The enclave has been reduced to rubble and 1.8 million Gazans—90% of its population—have been displaced. Their only crime was being seen as cheering when Hamas committed its horrific atrocities. In their aim to attain long term security, Israel now seems intent on reducing Gaza so completely, that it would take generations for Gazans to be able to merely stand on their own feet—leave along fight another war with Israel.
The killing of Sinwar has given Israel a symbol of victory which could logically pave the way for a ceasefire and the culmination of operations. But as Netanyahu proclaimed, “The war, my dear ones, is not yet over.” A new US peace plan proposed called for Israel to halt operations for ten days in which the remaining living hostages (now estimated to be just 66) would be returned to Israel, along with the remains of the dead. Sinwar had categorically rejected a temporary ceasefire, but a leaderless Hamas may agree to these terms. Israel may agree to it as well. That will enable it to attain another of its war aims and still leave it free to continue operations after the hostages are returned. The fact that Israel has launched a fresh offensive in Rafah and the North and intensified bombing in Gaza, indicates that it will not ease the pressure till Netanyahu attains “final and complete victory”—whatever that might be.
On its Northern front in Lebanon against the Hezbollah, Israel seems to be following a similar playbook. They have eliminated virtually all of Hezbollah’s middle and senior leadership through the exploding pagers, and decapitated the organisation by killing Hassan Nasrallah and his anointed successor Heshem Safieddine. Israeli aircraft and missiles have attacked throughout Lebanon, striking Hezbollah cadres, hitting missile and rocket sites, destroying infrastructure, and even targeting the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers. Beirut is seeing the same destruction and devastation that was witnessed in Gaza City, and the scale and scope of attacks are only increasing. At the same time, ground incursions have begun, to carve out “a buffer zone” around 30-40 km deep till the line of the Litani river, or go deeper still till the Awali river. But even a headless Hezbollah can be quite a potent threat as the increased Israeli casualties and continual rocket and missile attacks into Israel, show. It would take a great of time and effort for Israel to attain its aims in Lebanon—and a prolonged war with the Hezbollah could cause devastation far greater than that seen in Gaza.
The third front against Iran poses the gravest threat. Ever since Iran launched an attack on Israel on 1 October, with over 180 missiles and rockets, Israel has been promising retaliation for “months of continual attacks.” That retaliation came on 26 Oct when over 100 Israeli jets—including their top-of-the-line F-35 fighters—attacked Iran in three waves, across the provinces of Ilam, Khuzestan and Teheran and hit missile and drone production sites, surface-to-air missile arrays and other military targets. Israeli fighters also attacked targets in Syria and Iraq, in a deliberate show of force. Iran claimed (quite predictably) that minimal damage was caused, and Israel claimed that the “mission was now concluded”—an indicator that both sides do not want the issue to escalate—at least for the time being.
But then, an Iran-Israel confrontation is on the cards. Iran is “the head-of-the-snake” and Israel’s long-term security depends on eliminating that threat. It is fortunate that Israel and Iran are separated by 2,000 km of land between them, which precludes a ground war. But there could be a severe air and missile exchange. In an air war, the Israeli Air Force could make mincemeat of Iran’s antiquated F-4s and MIG fighters which have been virtually grounded for lack of spares. A deliberate and systematic targeting of missile and rocket sites, and other military targets will be done to preclude future attacks. The prime target would be, of course, Iran’s nuclear assets and the USA will be more than willing to help take them out. The USA has already provided Israel with a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) battery to stave off further Iranian missile attacks, and moved a third aircraft carrier group to the region, warning Iran of “consequences.” They will be willing partners to help Israel engineer chaos in Iran, weaken its leadership, dismantle its nuclear assets and eventually bring about regime change. Israel’s long-term goal will be to neutralise Iran—or at least its leadership—so that the threats on all other fronts caused by its proxies get automatically diminished.
All these actions are being played out in the backdrop of the US presidential elections. With the US pre-occupation with elections and till the time a new President occupies the White House in January 25, Israel has a window. They will use the time to carve out buffer zones in areas adjoining Lebanon and Gaza and deepen them as much as possible. These buffer zones will then be held permanently, as they have always done. Irrespective of who comes into power, US support to Israel will continue unabatedly. But they would be secretly hoping for Trump’s return to the White House. He is actively pro-Israel and the ‘Peace Deal of the Century’ which he had outlined for the Middle East in his earlier term, virtually gave Israel the carte blanche to keep its settlements in the occupied territories, recognised Jerusalem as its capital and pushed the Palestinian cause under the carpet. He is also vehemently anti-Iranian and even reneged on the US Iran nuclear deal in 2018—which led Iran to reactivate its nuclear program. He will be enthusiastic for any plan to cripple Iran’s nuclear program, and will support Israel far more ardently—irrespective of what they do.
Israel continues its operations along multiple fronts—Gaza, Lebanon, Iran and different militia groups—in its quest for long-term security. But it is on the political front—including Netanyahu’s desperate bid to cling on to power—that will eventually determine the direction and timelines of these wars. They have already crippled their adversaries considerably, if not permanently, but they themselves have been weakened, both economically and in terms of international standing. Their security could now be better served by consolidating their gains, taking a step back and restarting a process aimed at achieving a just, equitable and truly lasting peace.
Ajay Singh is the international award winning author of seven books and over 200 articles. He is a regular contributor to The Sunday Guardian.