It is evident that politics is being played out in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly where a demand for the restoration of Article 370 as well as other provisions has been made by various groups. Chief Minister Omar Abdullah and his party, the National Conference initiated the move by moving a resolution seeking dialogue with the Centre. Another section led by Sajjad Lone also presented a draft for a stronger resolution, terming the official one as too soft.
The point is that it is well known that the state Assembly does not have the powers to revoke the Centre’s decisions of 2019. The abrogation of Article 370 and the special status of Jammu and Kashmir is irrevocable, and like the partition of India cannot be reversed, this too shall never happen. No government in the future as well, may find it easy to undertake this political adventure of restoring 370.
Therefore, the question which arises is that why Omar Abdullah and his government would initiate such an action when there are elections being held in Maharashtra and Jharkhand and where the fallout of such a move cannot be good for the I.N.D.I.A bloc partners. The BJP has a very clear stand on the issue and would obviously exploit any development which shows I.N.D.I.A bloc constituents favouring the demand for restoration of Article 370.
It has been seen in the past that Kashmir does impact the polls, and in the 2019 Parliamentary elections, the Pulwama attack became a major factor leading to a historic win by the BJP. Omar may have his reasons for bringing in a resolution, and these could be to address those who supported the National Conference in the recently concluded Assembly polls.
However, deception is as much a part of politics as anything else and it is not beyond Omar and his illustrious father, Farooq Abdullah to do things which may benefit them even if they harm the Congress, its alliance partner in Kashmir. The NC does not exist outside Kashmir and the Abdullahs enjoy a very close relationship with Sharad Pawar, who is always playing political chess with both the white and black pieces simultaneously. The introduction of the resolution has on one hand, made the Congress vulnerable to attacks by the BJP in both Maharashtra and Jharkhand while allowing the Abdullahs to begin some sort of negotiations with the saffron brigade.
Farooq Abdullah, while responding to the killing of terrorists in Kashmir during an encounter, had stated recently that effort should be made to capture them alive instead of eliminating them. He was aware that the killing is not well received by the Kashmiris and thus wanted to play on both sides knowing fully well that in the situations which happen during a fierce encounter, the security forces have no option but to neutralize, in order to minimize casualties.
Having stated that publicly and getting a resolution moved in the Assembly on 370, the Abdullahs need to be put under scrutiny by the I.N.D.I.A bloc partners. Many are wondering if after Arvind Kejriwal’s attempt to make Delhi, Congress Mukt, to begin with, the National Conference also wishes to do the same in Jammu and Kashmir.
The fallout would lead to the weakening of the Congress. It shall strengthen the BJP further since the Congress is the only party which cannot align itself with the BJP while any of the I.N.D.I.A bloc partners can do it anytime. The National Conference was a part of the NDA government in the past with Omar Abdullah being the Minister of State for External Affairs.
Successive governments in Kashmir and the Northeast are aware that it is very difficult to function without the support of the Centre and in this emerging scenario, the NC could have some sort of tacit understanding with the BJP that could result in it joining hands with the Union government by even being its part. In politics everything is possible so the Congress has to be wary of this.
The grand old party clearly has no strategists who can foresee developments and take remedial steps. The I.N.D.I.A bloc partners get away by making statements against the BJP while they may create situations which are not good for the Congress in the long run. The AAP has done this in Delhi and the NC could do something similar in Kashmir. The regional parties at some level feel threatened by the Congress which has to look inwards and first identify elements within its own ranks which are acting as “sleeper cells” of BJP deliberately or inadvertently. The Congress high command must assess the damage that is being caused by wrong advice and planning.
In Haryana, for instance, the decision on the Leader of Opposition should have been taken by now. The suspense is not helping the party but strengthening the BJP. Any attempt to side-line Bhupinder Singh Hooda, the only mass leader the party in the state, would undermine its future and lead to a situation where the saffron brigade further consolidates itself.
The NC in Kashmir and others in other states would first look at their interests than those of either the I.N.D.I.A bloc or the Congress. With Priyanka Gandhi Vadra also likely to make her Parliamentary debut soon, the Congress should prepare itself in dealing with the emerging situations which may demand harsh measures.
To begin with, the Congress president must appoint a political adviser, well versed with national politics and an effective media head. Between us.