Akhilesh, BJP’s principal challenger

Former Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has emerged as the principal challenger to the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, a fact that has been acknowledged by the scathing attacks on him by both the Prime Minister and the Home Minister.
When Narendra Modi asked people to be beware of those who wear the Red Cap, alluding to the headgear of Samajwadi Party activists, he essentially accepted that the contest of the ballot in the most populous state of the country, was going to be between Akhilesh and Yogi Adityanath.
Akhilesh launched a counter offensive by stating that red was the colour of revolution and change, and it would ensure that the saffron brigade would be ousted from power in the forthcoming elections. His party has further criticised the BJP of using government functions to transmit political messages and has stated that official machinery was being deployed against the Opposition.
In the complex machinations of UP, one thing that needs to be understood is that the BJP, which at one time was happy that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s aggressive campaign was dividing the Opposition, perhaps views things differently now.
In what seems to be a well calibrated strategy, both Modi and Shah probably realise that further decimation of the Congress in the state, would help the BJP in the long run. There is thinking in some quarters that Priyanka would only cut into the BJP votes and the SP and BSP cadres were not going to be influenced by her road shows.
Thus by identifying a regional party as the principal adversary, the BJP would be damaging the Congress, which needs to revive itself badly, in case it wants to retain its primary position as the main Opposition party in the country.
Modi and Shah are very good strategists and work to a plan, which is not merely confined to one election, but to the political supremacy of the BJP in the whole country. Regional parties suit their political design much more than a national party and they would be happy if the power struggle is confined to a regional player and their own party, keeping the Congress out of the picture altogether. The political reasoning could be that if Akhilesh has a stand-off with the BJP in the post poll scenario, the option of wooing and using other regional parties like the BSP, would always be there.
Modi and Shah are also aware that the Congress was in a truncated condition and was gasping for breath in the entire country. Priyanka is doing her bit to help her party but her efforts were unlikely to change the ground situation in any dramatic manner. But she can certainly damage the BJP since no supporter of the SP and BSP would tilt on her side, and the only voters who would gravitate towards her could be from the BJP.
In the last three elections, the state has given astounding victories to whoever has won. Mayawati secured a majority of her own, followed by Akhilesh and then the BJP in 2017. One factor that worked in favour of the saffron brigade in the last Assembly polls was that when the Congress joined hands with the SP, in more than 300 constituencies, the Congress workers and supporters switched over to the BJP, thus swelling its overall vote percentage.
The Congress folly was that after Rahul Gandhi campaigned extensively throughout the state, Priyanka entered into an alliance with Akhilesh, without taking into consideration, that for 25 years before that, her party workers had been battling both the SP and BSP. Therefore, there was no way, they could have assisted the SP and the BJP was always a better alternative in their view.
The scenario has undergone some sort of a change with Yogi Adityanath being the spearhead of the Sangh Parivar charge. The BJP has benefited from the caste arithmetic and chemistry in the state after having infiltrated the OBC ranks. However, the apprehension is that some OBCs, who have been supporting the BJP could make a turnaround and go towards the Congress, since the caste combinations of the SP and BSP are well defined. If that were to happen, the BJP may lose its advantage.
As it is, the prolonged farmers’ agitation is certainly going to have its impact on the Assembly polls. The BJP had entered both the Parliamentary elections of 2014 and 2019 as also the Assembly polls of 2017, with big support coming from Western UP. Communal clashes between Jats and Muslims in certain parts, had made the elections very divisive, providing the BJP with a definite edge.
However, the farmers’ agitation has united the warring groups who are on the same side and thus are likely to vote against the ruling dispensation in these parts in particular. For them Yogi’s achievements are not as paramount as the rising prices, growing unemployment and the widely perceived poor state of the economy.
The BJP in its most weakened state may still have an assured support of at least 30% of the total electorate of UP, but would it be sufficient to make them sail through once again, with the floating voters yet to make up their minds.
The BJP is playing the card of a Krishna Temple in Mathura but this is unlikely to be an election issue. For Modi and Shah, winning UP is important, but winning 2024 is the ultimate target. This too with a weakened Congress. Between us.