More than the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Congress allies would have a greater reason to worry if the grand old party were to revive and make a comeback on the national stage. There are already indications that Arvind Kejriwal wants to throw a spanner in the works and by visiting Chhattisgarh, where he has negligible presence, he declared that the Aam Aadmi Party would be contesting the elections, and people should try his outfit, since both the Congress and the BJP had failed to deliver.
This visit was completely avoidable, and it demonstrates how much commitment the AAP has towards Opposition unity to take on the BJP and its coalition partners, in the Parliamentary polls that could follow the Assembly elections. The AAP’s logic of expanding its base in various parts, does not seem consistent with the collective resolve of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A) to face the BJP and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
The combined Opposition is meeting in Mumbai later in the week and its leaders propose to carry forward the intentions which were on view both in Patna and Bengaluru. However, it is not Kejriwal alone who has decided to apply pressure on the Congress, but even Sharad Pawar has started his power play by making ambiguous statements. The NCP is not making things clear regarding where it stands; there are several signs that show that a patch up between the two factions was on cards and the parting itself was just a well enacted drama.
Many political analysts believe that Pawar continues to play a deceptive game and is perhaps preparing a stage where he does not have to leave the I.N.D.I.A alliance but is ejected from it. This would help him gain sympathy in the four or five districts of Maharashtra, where he has some influence, while simultaneously it shall ensure that the Ajit Pawar group remains in power in the state, and the party collectively contests the elections whenever they are held.
Kejirwal is rattled by the unlikely prospect of the Congress tying up with the Shiromani Akali Dal through a secret understanding in Punjab, a pact that could be detrimental to the AAP, which, despite being in power in the state, could find it difficult to win in the Parliamentary elections.
While Pawar and Kejriwal have provided some evidence of what could be in their mind, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who is equally deceptive and devious in the way he plays his politics, could make moves that are detrimental to the interests of the newly born alliance. Nitish has in the past broken away from the BJP, only to return back as its alliance partner, and this kind of development cannot be ruled out in the future as well.
There are some who believe that West Bengal Chief Minister, Mamata Banerjee, who is a mass leader in her state, could also throw some tantrums as the elections draw nearer. Yes, it is difficult for her to have any kind of understanding with the Left parties and the Congress in the state, but that is the only way the BJP can be stopped. Otherwise, even though she may manage to win the majority of seats in Bengal, the BJP’s imprint would always remain.
The short point is that more than the BJP, the regional parties fear the Congress. The BJP is a known political adversary on the national front when they make the argument of saving democracy and the Constitution, but when it comes to realpolitik, the Congress remains an opponent as well. The success of regional parties in most places has been at the expense of the Congress, whose space has shrunk in order to provide an advantage to several of such parties, that are now seeking to align with it nationally.
It is not that the Congress leadership does not understand the dynamics at work, but while looking at a larger picture, the overall interests of the grand old party could be affected. As it is, there are enough troubles within the Congress, and to begin with, the organization needs to be strengthened and streamlined, which the new president, Mallikarjun Kharge is attempting to do.
The Congress at the Opposition conclave must do some plain speaking and take a commitment from its alliance partners regarding their true intentions. It would be less painful and more realistic, if the parting is now, rather than later. It is a known fact that if the alliance survives and delivers, it shall be solely because of the Congress, which is central to any agenda set against the BJP and its allies. None of the regional parties is capable of taking on the saffron brigade nationally, and their interests are only confined to their respective regions, where they wish to keep the Congress, at bay in order to survive politically.
This paradox has to be resolved amicably. Kharge recently constituted the new Working Committee, which is packed with many questionable names. There is very little presence of those under 50 years of age, and the CWC has members whose inclusion after they publicly announced they were retiring means that they were still valuable assets and politically relevant.
Kharge needs to be more assertive and should also constitute the Parliamentary Board to include leaders with gravitas. While dealing with the alliance partners, he should be forthright. Saving the Congress from its allies is as important as saving the country from the BJP. Between us.