BJP-Shiv Sena fight nears climax

The uncertainty regarding the future of the MVA government in Maharashtra persists even though veteran politician Sharad Pawar has jumped on to the centre-stage to monitor the unfolding situation. Pawar is by far the most astute leader the state has thrown up in the past several decades and he rarely makes a loose comment, which can be detrimental to his own interests.
Therefore, it is not without significance that he has gone ahead and stated that the only way of testing the majority of the government can be on the floor of the House. In other words, he wants all the Shiv Sena MLAs, including those who have allegedly switched their allegiance from Uddhav Thackeray to Eknath Shinde to come to the Vidhan Sabha for a show of strength.
The BJP is very cautiously moving forward in the emerging scenario and would not like to face another round of humiliation if things do not work according to what some of its leaders have planned. The priority for the party’s high command is the 2024 Parliamentary polls and the only reason, they could have some interest in Maharashtra politics is that if the three constituents of the present government contest the Lok Sabha elections jointly, the consequences for the BJP may not be favourable.
There are multiple theories that are doing the rounds. Eknath Shinde, who is the man to watch, has been obviously propped up by the anti-Thackeray lobby both within the Sena and outside. It is unthinkable that he could be acting on his own behest and challenging his former boss.
In the layered politics of Maharashtra, it is being said that the reason for the rebel MLAs to be shifted out from Gujarat to Assam could be possibly linked to the presence of large number of Gujaratis in Mumbai who fear that they may have to bear the brunt of the Shiv Sena attacks in case things go wrong.
It may be recalled that the Sena was founded in the 1960s essentially against the control of South Indians in the then Bombay and this movement subsequently started targeting the Gujaratis as well. However, the Gujarati community is extremely pragmatic in its approach and bought peace with Balasaheb Thackeray subsequently. But ever since Narendra Modi arrived on the national scene, the Gujaratis in Mumbai support the BJP. The city has been the citadel of the Shiv Sena and thus the fallout of its government falling could be on the residents of the metropolis.
Pawar is right when he stated that the post of the Chief Minister in the MVA government was with the Shiv Sena and it was their internal matter on who they choose to occupy this august office. He understands the ramifications of what would happen since the Sena in the past has been described by its opponents as a party packed with goons. Whether this is correct or not is for the people of the state to figure out.
There is also speculation that Eknath Shinde had managed to influence some MLAs to join him but there are many others who could have been sent to show solidarity with him as a part of a larger Sena plan. In addition, these MLAs would provide feedback on what actually was happening in the dissident camp and once they all land in Mumbai for a show of strength, a lot of doubts would get cleared.
The Sena and the Thackerays are synonymous with each other and many tall leaders—Chagan Bhujbal and Narayan Rane, who once enjoyed the patronage of Balasaheb, parted company with the party but the outfit survived and remained strong. It would be, in this context, also interesting to know whether Raj Thackeray, who runs his own party would allow Eknath Shinde to hijack the agenda, which was set by Balasaheb.
Former Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis is very keen that he should once again get back his position but there are many ifs and buts in the way. The BJP cannot come to power on its own and there can be several claimants if an alternate government was to be put in place. The first condition of any group that supports the BJP would be to allow their leader to be the Chief Minister.
Maharashtra has in the past witnessed many twists and turns in its politics. The most noteworthy was when in the late 1970s, Sharad Pawar in close coordination with Chandra Shekhar and against the wishes of his mentor, Yashwant Rao Chavan, succeeded in becoming the CM after the Congress (S) and Congress (I) coalition led by Vasantdada Patil and Nasikrao Tirpude collapsed.
The principal reason for the falling of an otherwise stable government was that Tirpude took offence to the way he was treated by Indira Gandhi and despite being a part of her party decided to let the dispensation fall. The entire issue was triggered by a misunderstanding created over his remarks that “Sharad Pawar is the Sanjay of Y.B. Chavan” and every politician has someone they wish to promote so why blame Indira Gandhi for supporting Sanjay.
That is of course history but Pawar continues to be relevant and thus could even now play a major role in saving this government.
There are alternate scenarios that could also emerge and the imposition of President’s Rule is amongst them. However, this would be unlikely unless there is a floor test. Between us.