With the dates of the Assembly elections to five states drawing closer, it is evident that the Congress is trying to implement the Karnataka template that had brought it success, when the polls were held there a few months ago.
The grand old party has given a free run to its regional leadership to take control of the campaign, while the central functionaries are playing a low-key role. This strategy has made it difficult for the BJP to take pot-shots at the senior party leaders, and therefore the focus continues on crucial issues such as rising prices, corruption and unemployment while national matters have been relegated to the background.
Even the Prime Minister has taken a call to do selective campaigning for these elections and is not all over as he has been in the previous polls. Narendra Modi is conserving his energies, it seems, for the big fight which takes place next year, and is clear in his mind that the priority has to be the Lok Sabha battle.
From the Congress standpoint, it has been observed that whenever the contest gets projected as the one between Modi and Rahul Gandhi, the BJP in comparison wrests the advantage. But with Rahul also going for fewer meetings, his role, as it was in Karnataka, is not as pronounced as it was earlier.
The credit for this must also be given to the Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge, who has time and again reiterated that his party was not in the race for Prime Ministership, thereby allowing the allies to heave a sigh of relief, at least for the time being. Kharge realises the disadvantage of projecting someone from his party for the top job, since it makes others uncomfortable and takes the emphasis away from a fight against the BJP.
The overall question of the leadership of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc would arise only if the BJP gets defeated first, a Herculean task, given the popularity of the Prime Minister and the strong back-up of the entire Sangh Parivar. Kharge has been shielding the Gandhis from the direct range of fire and simultaneously has been encouraging regional leaders to play their part to bring the party success.
The result is that Kamal Nath in Madhya Pradesh, Bhupesh Baghel in Chhattisgarh and Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan, are giving some anxious moments to the Sangh leadership. The Congress chief realises that in order to prepare for the Lok Sabha confrontation, the Congress has to strengthen its regional base, as also enthuse the grassroots workers.
It is well known that the Congress is not expected to perform well in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and therefore has to be make up for the loss of seats there from other states. It is well placed in the South and in the North if it is able to win in a sizable number of constituencies despite the handicap of UP and Bihar, it shall be back in the game.
It is more important to first cross the three-digit mark in the Lok Sabha to be able to regain its relevance nationally. The victory in the states in the ensuing Assembly elections would serve as a morale booster for the cadres and a dampener for the BJP and its partners. However, everyone in political circles is aware that getting past Narendra Modi and his team is never going to be easy, as the Prime Minister, along with Amit Shah, is a practitioner of 24X7 politics and is capable of always ambushing his rivals by his smart statements and deft moves.
So far, the reports from the states that are going to polls have been encouraging for the Congress, which, because of the BJP’s own confusion, is surging ahead. The biggest surprise that is being witnessed is how the party has risen in Telangana where it is challenging the BRS and K. Chandrasekhar Rao in the polls and could also cause an upset, if certain pollsters are to be believed.
In the almost impossible event of the Congress pulling it off in Telangana, its chances of getting back to the road to recovery would be far better than what it has been. For that to happen, the high command should continue empowering local and regional leaders and re-examine wherever it has made a mistake in giving tickets, and correct the same before the last date of withdrawal. It may be recalled that in the undivided Andhra Pradesh, the Congress had got 29 and 33 seats in the Lok Sabha polls under the leadership of the late Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy in 2004 and 2009, which helped it to form government at the Centre. And after YSR’s demise, the party surprisingly declared the support for Telangana which was formed and its formation empowered KCR.
The Congress had lost on its strongest battleground all these years and regaining Telangana would certainly be the first step for its further rise. The Karnataka loss to the Congress has left the BJP struggling and it has so far not been able to appoint a Leader of Opposition there. This indecision would also leave an impact on its chances in neighbouring Telangana. The elevation of Kharge as the party chief would also help in the Karnataka-Hyderabad belt in the long run.
The Assembly polls are important and would certainly have some influence on the Parliamentary polls. However, to overcome Modi in the Parliamentary fight is going to be the most difficult task. Between us.