The outcome of the 2024 general elections has created an ironic scenario. The BJP set such high expectations that its third-best performance is now seen as a major setback. Conversely, expectations for the Congress party were so low that its third-worst performance is being celebrated.
Following the election outcome, an elated Rahul Gandhi told the media that the voters had rejected Narendra Modi. It was asserted that Modi lacked the moral authority to serve as Prime Minister of India. The BJP-led pre-poll National Democratic Alliance having a clear majority, and the BJP itself holding more seats than the combined total of the I.N.D.I Alliance, is inconsequential to them.
The Gandhi scion has claimed that the BJP-led NDA is a fragile alliance and that Modi’s “56-inch chest” image has been diminished. His intention is to portray NaMo as weak and unable to handle coalition pressure. It must be noted here that Rahul Gandhi’s stated goal was to destroy Modi’s strength, his incorruptible image. He failed to do so despite constant efforts and the daily shouting of Adani and Ambani names. Given the electoral setback to the BJP, RaGa has sensed a chance to deal a blow to Modi’s other strength—that of a strong and decisive leader.
Although Congress may continue to feel proud of its performance—the least worst in the last three elections—the narrative it is attempting to craft will not work.
AS STRONG AS EVER
The decisions taken so far show that NaMo is under no pressure. The BJP has retained all the important ministries, and majority of the ministerial berths, and none of the allies have created any drama over it. NaMo’s personal chemistry with Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar has been evident. Of course, there are no certainties in coalition politics. However, as explained in my article “Lessons from the 2024 General Elections,” published on 9th June in The Sunday Guardian, as of now, Modi 3.0 does not appear to be shaky.
Modi has kept his top four ministers unchanged and has made no effort to appease the RSS with his choices. To his supporters and the Sangh, he signalled that he will not give up his prerogative and be submissive. To the Indian electorate, he conveyed that he stands by his government’s performance, irrespective of the outcome.
During the campaigning, Modi had asked the Muslim community to introspect about wanting to be political kingmakers and instead focus on the future of their children. However, despite taking full advantage of the Modi government’s welfare schemes, Muslims voted en bloc against the BJP. Modi 3.0 inducted non-elected Sikh and Christian members, but did not do token appeasement of Muslims by including a member from the community. He rejected their electoral veto and did it while the BJP is 32 short of a clear majority of its own. This was also an act of defiance towards the global community that keeps painting him as anti-Muslim. NaMo has retained Ajit Doval as the National Security Adviser; another act of defiance in view of the “assassination” allegations of Canada and the US.
While some decisions may be debatable, it is indisputable that none of the above displays any sign of weakness.
AYODHYA WIN
The Congress and its ecosystem are consistently emphasising the BJP’s defeat in Ayodhya (Faizabad constituency in Uttar Pradesh) as a rejection of the BJP’s ideology. In my opinion, it does not matter whether the BJP ever wins from that constituency or not. Ram Mandir inauguration was a civilisational win. After Independence, when the Somnath reconstruction was undertaken, PM Jawaharlal Nehru vehemently opposed it as “Hindu revivalism.” The Indian PM’s refusal to associate with the Somnath temple led to the rise of a perverse idea of India where the majority community was made to feel ashamed about its religion and roots. On 22 January 2024, with the Prime Minister of India participating in Ram temple pran pratishtha, that perverse idea of India lost in Ayodhya. No amount of spinning can change that fact.
NAMO
Congress has learned nothing in the last 22 years if it thinks that Narendra Modi can get overwhelmed by challenges. He has a long track record of turning challenges into opportunities. It is true that it is for the first time that he is in a situation where his party does not have a majority. But it is not the first time that he will face multiple forces that try to undermine him or finish him off politically. He has been dealing with that since he became the Chief Minister of Gujarat. The collective might of Congress and its allies, global and domestic media, NGOs, and many foreign powers could not stop NaMo’s rise from Gujarat to Delhi. A similar joint effort could not result in his defeat in 2024 either.
While he did not induct a Muslim into the ministry, the first State visit to India in Modi 3.0 is by Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina, a Muslim woman Head of Government. While Opposition leaders did not congratulate him for a historic third term, leaders from across the world flooded him with messages, including leaders from the Muslim world. While Congress mocks him as a one-third PM, he was given a place of prominence in the family photo at G-7 outreach in Italy.
The fact is that NaMo remains undefeated, enjoys respect at home and abroad, and continues to be more popular than other Indian leaders. Neither the idea of Modi nor his image have been destroyed.
CONCLUSION
If narratives had the ability to defeat NaMo, he would have been defeated in Gujarat. If disrespect or abuses had affected him, he would have quit politics long back. NaMo is made of sterner stuff, and it is guaranteed that he will do everything possible to bounce back from this. It will be detrimental for Congress to underestimate NaMo just because he has faced a minor setback.
Semu Bhatt is a political analyst.