The positive performance of the Democratic Party this year can be attributed to successfully appealing the suburban communities, white conservative working class and higher turnout of black voters.
The entire world is watching a historic US presidential election being fought bitterly between challenger Joe Biden of the Democratic Party and incumbent President Donald Trump of the Republican Party. For months before Election Day, pollsters from across the United States reported a compelling strong lead for Joe Biden nationally. However, the ongoing electoral battle between him and President Trump has been a stark contrast. As the election process is going on, US democracy is seemingly undergoing a stress test due to the close election between the two candidates, fought down to the very last counties even in the most assured “red/blue states”. The votes in key battleground states like Nevada, Pennsylvania and Arizona are still being counted with many experts claiming that it will be days before a definite result can be known. The Trump administration has challenged the vote counts of mail in ballots and access to counting stations in many of the key battleground states in courts, prompting legal commentator and George Washington University Law School professor Jonathan Turley to say that the elections are “clearly moving from the political to the legal”. As of now, Biden is leading the Electoral College votes with 253 votes and President Trump at 213. Irrespective of what the pollsters had claimed, the incumbent has performed better than expected. President Trump has managed to hold not only traditionally red states but has also competed closely in blue states. This development has surprised many as the Trump government faced a plethora of questions about the way it responded to Covid-19, weakened the economy, escalated racial tensions due to police brutality and wildfires, to name a few. As both candidates campaigned on the idea of “saving the soul of the nation”, the split votes present two differing faces of America.
In 2016, many Democrats argued that losing the elections rested on Hillary Clinton’s vulnerabilities, especially the email scandal investigated by the FBI. Many who were not Trump supporters, voted for him not with the confidence in his possible win but rather sending an anti-Hillary message. Once Trump won, Democrats and political experts assumed that his flamboyant personality would be moderated within a well established political establishment surrounded by both structural and ideological advisers. As accounts from observers and insiders like John Bolton reveal, it was chaotic. Nevertheless, after four years, this campaign was far better equipped and organised despite a raging Covid-19 pandemic and deepening economic downturn. Both campaigns began with well known positions on domestic and foreign policy issues: Democratic Party generally positions itself as centre-left within an American liberalism platform, while the Republican Party generally positions itself as centre-right within an American conservatism platform. However, since February this year, the impact of the Covid pandemic and the escalating social unrest after the killing of an African American, George Floyd, by a white police officer in Minnesota made them hot button issues of this election. Other issues like tax policy, budget deficits, energy policy, climate change and China Iran and Russia continued to be part of the narrative, but racism, health care and jobs were prominent and incendiary.
As the election got underway, these developments emphasised a divisive debate that pointedly raised the issue of leadership. Actions of President Trump in the aftermath of the violence that accompanied the protests raised by Black Lives Matter movement and the group Qanon’s messaging left Americans deeply concerned over the state of the union. The electorate was not only divided on partisan lines but also deeply polarised on civic culture. It is important to note that while the issue of police reform was raging, the issue of law and order was as much in evidence in the campaign discourses.
In the final days of campaigning, the President testing positive and his recovery once again raised the salience of health issues, with 68% of electorate calling it as the most important issue with economy a close second. The impact of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, which has left more than 220,000 Americans dead; protests in reaction to the killing of George Floyd and other African Americans; the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and the nomination and confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett, climate change regulations, particularly the Paris Agreement from which Trump has announced US’ withdrawal; and the future of the Affordable Care Act, with Biden arguing for protecting and expanding the scope of the legislation, and Trump pushing for repealing or narrowing many of its provisions has simultaneously energised the Democratic and Republican bases.
Even as the result is imminent this election has made it clear that “Trump-ism” is here to stay and is more than a one-time phenomenon. The President’s poll defying performance can be credited to increase in non-white voting base, especially the Latino voters (mainly in Florida and Texas). According to exit polls by Edison Research, 11% of African Americans, 31% of Hispanics and 30% of Asian Americans voted for Trump this year, 3% more than 2016. Even as President Trump’s white voting base contracted this year in comparison to 2016, the campaign’s success in broadening his traditional voting base signals towards the vast possibilities of diversifying support across various racial ethnicities.
If one compares the electoral map of 2016 and 2020, one stark difference is visible—the Midwest. In 2016, the President was able to claim the mid-western states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that secured him the electoral victory. This year, Wisconsin has counted its ballots, with Biden leading ahead. Michigan is still counting its ballots, especially in the heavily Democratic Party leaning precinct of Detroit. Based on the current vote count analysis, Biden is expected to win this state. On the other hand, Pennsylvania will take the longest. Even as President Trump was leading in the vote count, vast share of votes are left to be counted from the darkest blue parts of the state, like Philadelphia. The positive performance of the Democratic Party this year can be attributed to successfully appealing the suburban communities, white conservative working class and higher turnout of black voters. Historically, these states have been critical for the Democratic Party, forming an integral part of the “blue wall” political strategy. In 2016, Trump was able to break the blue wall by winning many of these states.
As the vote count in various states is taking more time than expected, with a thin margin of difference between both the candidates, President Trump claimed victory and asked the Supreme Court to halt counting. Within hours of this announcement, Trump’s legal team filed lawsuits against vote counting in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia. The campaign is also demanding for recount of votes in the state of Wisconsin. Legally, the matter cannot go directly to the Supreme Court. Even if the Supreme Court currently leans in favour of the Republican Party, thanks to the recent appointment of Amy Coney Barett, all these specific lawsuits and cases would be executed in respective courts of these states before it proceeds to the Supreme Court. This development is consistent to Trump campaign’s battle against vote by mail, which overwhelmingly supported the Democratic Party due to the ongoing health scare. Two primary factors have been associated to the delay in vote counting procedure: for many states vote by mail is a newer procedure, which requires a specific attention and voter turnout this election has been one of the best in recent years, which has led to millions of ballots taking hours to be processed. Constitutionally, there is no mandate that expects the winner to be declared on the same day. Even though modern voting apparatus has hastened the counting procedure, delays in declaring the result are not only normal but signals towards the political system working efficiently amidst a slew of Covid related changes that were introduced in states this year. Even though the Republicans won a few cases against vote by mail in some state courts, it failed in states like Pennsylvania, which allowed a three-day extension.
With the looming court battles, the Biden campaign has legal teams in the states of Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. According to Politico, the Biden campaign has spent months in forming a “voter protection unit” made up of hundreds of lawyers, preparing all sorts of political scenarios. The legal messaging and future strategy of the Biden campaign regarding this issue is under the leadership of former White House counsel, Bob Bauer. The odds of 2020 election replaying the electoral crisis of 2000 are highly plausible. But unlike the 2000 election, when no clear winner was announced due to the dispute of votes in only one state i.e. Florida, this year’s vote count issue revolves around multiple states. The multitude of court battles will not only be vast but also extensive based on individual voting conditions of various states. As of now, it is too soon to predict the direction in which the legal battles will head, but the anxious waiting will test the democratic institutions of the country. Furthermore, even if Joe Biden wins this election, he will be leading a country that remains more convinced about “Trumpian philosophies” than in 2016, signalling a deepened imbalance of discordant socio-political views in modern America.
Professor K.P Vijayalakshmi is Professor of US Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University.