The cover of a book brought out by Manipal Universal Press, “Geopolitics of the 21st century”, features a cover showing the world in flames. Given what is going on in different parts of the world, the image on the cover may seem an accurate description of what has been taking place across different time zones. After Bangladesh, the latest country that has caught fire, as it were, is Syria. Since he was on the cusp of being removed from office and recovered in the 2011 “Arab Spring” (which was quickly followed in some of the countries affected by a Wahhabi winter), Assad had become complacent, aware that he was being backed by the Kremlin. Through that overconfidence, he began to weed out from his immediate entourage those who substituted flattery for truth. Of course, most such individuals accumulated large sums of money, most of which was transferred abroad, as were several of their family members. The suddenness of the invasion resulted in several such worthies remaining in Syria even though an extremist-led militia was on the verge of taking over Damascus. They figured that the grease of flattery and the money at their command would protect them from retribution. The soldiers working for Bashar Assad were paid USD 20 each month, their officers paid USD 30. Each ordinary militia member of the invading force was paid USD 300 a month, officers much more. While President R.T.
Erdogan of Turkey has built up a substantial cache of cash that is undisclosed, his parsimonious temperament would have prevented him from handing over enough of that hoard to the rebel fighters who are now in occupation of much of Syria. It would be interesting to ascertain who all coughed up the bulk of the cash that was spent first on buying up members of Assad’s army so as to better ensure that they abandoned their posts without a fight. Winning without fighting is the preferred mode of Al Qaeda, and it must be admitted that they are good at psywar, giving an impression that they are invulnerable.
Several times, his Russian guarantors had warned Assad that his government was rotting from within, but the Syrian strongman paid no heed, believing in those who told him he was invulnerable. When several previously hostile Middle Eastern governments switched from opposition to support for him, Assad’s confidence grew, until it was shattered in days. Finally accepting that his stint in power had ended, he left for Moscow, to where his family members were also sent earlier. Not that he would face any hardship. Assad has substantial assets in Russia, including luxurious villas, some with a beachfront. His only worry would be whether some of the new masters of much of Syria who are now in Damascus would seek to assassinate him. Given that he has become deeply unpopular in Syria and does not pose a significant threat to the new regime, this may not happen. If they were to kill Assad in Russia, the Russian military and not Russian diplomats would respond. Ukraine has been a learning experience for the military in the Russian Federation, as much as Chechnya was in the past. Should the Russians cut off access to the Black Sea, that would break the confidence of those Ukrainians who are Russophobic that they will prevail over Russia. The capture of Odessa, among the most strategically significant ports in the world, would shatter the morale of Ukrainian Russophobes. Accepting a cease fire without securing Odessa and the territory around it would only be temporary and would be broken once the Ukrainians feel confident enough to strike again. India was generous at Shimla, and got back terror factories in the Punjab and Kashmir as a consequence. It is doubtful that Putin would err in the way Indira Gandhi did in 1972 when the Shalimar perfume-scented Z.A. Bhutto begged her to accept his word that the Line of Control at that point in time would be the International Border. Bhutto was lying and as was usual, we accepted verbal promises as being as serious as formal agreements, and released 93,000 PoWs, many of whom had indulged in genocidal repression in Bangladesh. It is the children of these PoWs that masterminded the takeover of Bangladesh by Wahhabi groups