How India worked on Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu, who was aggressive and provocative towards India, and made him realise that India only wished his country well, is a template worth emulating in developing relations with other nations.
A fair overview of the conduct of India’s foreign policy in 2024 will indicate that India has done rather well in all spheres except in relations with some neighbours. The issues that have dominated India’s foreign policy in 2024 are: national security and protection of our national borders, foiling terrorist attacks from across the border, pursuing policies which will promote and strengthen ties with neighbours, vigorously demanding safety and wellbeing of Indians abroad, especially in neighbouring countries, expanding and deepening relations with developed nations which could give economic and technological heft to India’s efforts to achieve her domestic agenda for economic transformation, seeking convergences in bilateral relations which will be mutually beneficial and serve strategic interests, participating in plurilateral, multilateral and global initiatives which serve global commons like addressing climate change and seek peaceful resolutions of conflicts which are causing a huge loss of lives, infrastructure, causing humanitarian crises and environmental degradation.
The agreement reached with China on 21 October on “patrolling arrangements along the LAC in Depsang and Demchok leading to disengagement” was arguably the most significant breakthrough in India-China relations since the Galwan valley clashes. In effect, the agreement restores patrolling by both sides in all areas of LAC as it occurred prior to 28 May 2020. The thaw has already resulted in bookings for Kailash and Mansarovar yatra in 2025. Trade at Nathu La (Sikkim); Lipulekh (Uttarakhand) and Dumchelles (southern Ladakh) are likely to resume.
Her weakening economy; concerns sparked off by the threat of incoming US President Donald Trump of imposing of 60% duty on all imports from China; desire to increase Chinese investment in India and expand bilateral trade in which it enjoys surplus might have led to China’s decision to reach this agreement. Evidently, PM Modi’s meeting with the Chinese President Xi Jinping in Kazan on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in October 2024 lent the final push. Clear message: remaining firm and resolute against China, as the current government did, pays in the end. Hopefully, the peace and tranquillity on the LAC will prevail, as in the past. But India ought to remain vigilant and not commit the mistake of trusting China.
PM Modi is the only Indian PM who has worked with three US Presidents with totally different personalities: Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden; interestingly, he will be interacting with the fourth, Donald Trump again. The world is anxious about how disruptive and chaotic Trump 2.0 might be, going by his aggressive utterances. But India can be a little relaxed, given the warmth, bonhomie and personal chemistry enjoyed by PM Modi and President Trump and the fond memories of Howdy Modi in Houston (22 September 2019) and Namaste Trump in Sardar Patel Stadium, Ahmedabad (24 February 2020). However, a note of caution: nothing could be more unpredictable than predicting Donald Trump.
Joe Biden invited Narendra Modi to pay a state visit in June 2023. He got the agreement for coproduction of GE F-414 jet engine with 80% transfer of technology and production and fabrication of semiconductors in India, and the agreement on critical and emerging technologies (iCET) signed by the American and Indian NSA. He also facilitated a unanimous Leaders’ Delhi Declaration at G-20 Summit in Delhi in September 2023. He invited Modi along with other Quad leaders to his home in Wilmington in Delaware in September 2024, thus continuing his warm relations with the Indian PM in 2024.
In August 2024, the Indian Ministry of Defence and the US Department of Defence (DoD) signed an agreement for a Security of Supply Arrangement (SOSA), which is considered a significant step in bilateral defence cooperation. Under this agreement, either side could request the other for priority supply of certain defence items.
However, in business circles, there is lurking concern that Trump might impose tariffs on Indian exports. His decision on H1B visa might also negatively impact Indian IT companies.
Kamala Harris’s loss to Trump has brought a sigh of relief in some circles in India. There was concern that given her liberal, leftist leanings, she might have taken a more hawkish look at reported allegations of breach of religious and press freedom in India. Conversely, Trump might take a more relaxed and laidback approach on these issues.
Thanks to the bipartisan support for close India-US relations, the differences on the Ukrainian conflict, Russia and Iran have not derailed bilateral relations. However, the saga of Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, American-Canadian lawyer who supports the demand for a separate Sikh state seems to be vitiating otherwise cordial relations. While the US authorities are supposedly sore that an Indian intelligence official tried to have Pannun assassinated, Indians can’t comprehend how the US gives so much importance to a person who openly talks of blowing up Air India flights and kill Indian leaders and has been designated a terrorist by India. They feel, the US doesn’t show adequate sensitivity to India.
Many Indians believe that Canada was tipped off by the US about the Nijjar assassination. India-Canada relations have hit the nadir thanks to immature and irresponsible statements by Justin Trudeau. His government hasn’t taken any action against the Khalistani activists who had bombed Air India flight AI 182 on 2 June 1985 killing 329 passengers. For bolstering his political fortunes, he curries favours with known terrorists who are wanted in India but fails to provide adequate security protection to Indian diplomats in Canada which is his duty.
PM Modi’s unprecedented outreach to Africa, the Gulf and Latin America continued with positive results. He vigorously flagged India’s credentials as the most significant voice of the Global South.
Relations with key European nations remain stable. PM Modi visited Austria, Denmark and Poland and undertook the train journey to Kiev and pitched for a diplomatic solution to the Ukrainian conflict keeping Biden and Putin in the loop.
He attended the BRICS Summit in Kazan in Russia in October and after visiting Nigeria (first by Indian PM in 43 years) participated in the G-20 Summit in Rio in Brazil in November.
How India worked on the current Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu who was initially unmistakably aggressive and provocative towards India and made him realise that India only wished his country well, is a template worth emulating in developing relations with other nations. Both the PM and EAM must be happy about the outcome.
To some extent, the same patient and accommodating approach is serving India’s relations well with Sri Lanka’s new President Anura Kumara Dissanayake.
But K.P. Sharma Oli of Nepal, a cunning and wily old fox, seems to have 9 political lives and never ceases to play the China card. Some BRI projects in Nepal are cause of concern to India
The relations with Pakistan remain in limbo. S. Jaishankar’s visit to Pakistan to attend an SCO meeting might have broken ice but something more substantial is required. If we can talk to China after all it has done to us, why not Pakistan?
The collapse of Sheikh Hasina’s government and her escape to India and the demand of the caretaker government in Bangladesh to extradite her, present the toughest choice to India. It’s ironic that all the gains that the birth of Bangladesh might have accrued to India are now lost. Today Bangladesh is closer to Pakistan.
If India, Pakistan and Bangladesh were on the same page, SAARC will fly. Alas, it remains a distant dream.
* Surendra Kumar is former Indian ambassador.